It's almost time for baseball, which means it is time for me to offer predictions on how the season will go, and most of which will prove that I don't know my ass from a hole in the ground. Let's get to it.
AL East
1. Toronto Blue Jays*
2. Boston Red Sox*
3. New York Yankees
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles
A lot of predictions I've read are high on the Red Sox. For sure, Boston is going to be better than they've been the last two years (they almost have to be), but I'm still high on the Blue Jays.
The Yankees are expected to finish fourth or worse. So I think they'll finish third, because they're the Yankees and, even though they're a mediocre team filled with old dudes, they somehow manage to squirm their way in the playoff conversation when they have no right to.
The Rays, on paper, are a better team than the Yankees, and I'm just picking them to finish fourth more so due to the Yankees than because I think the Rays will bad. I don't think they'll be in the playoff conversation this year, but I think they're set up well for a 2017 return to form.
Finally, there's the Orioles, who are hilariously one-dimensional. This is a team that will depend entirely on dingers to stay afloat. They'll win some games with that mindset, but the required 85-90+ to make the playoffs? I don't think so.
AL Central
1. Kansas City Royals*
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Detroit Tigers
5. Chicago White Sox
Personally, I think the AL Central is the weakest division in the majors. It's got the Royals and not much else. Why, yes I do think the defending world champions will make the playoffs again. Thanks for asking.
As for the teams that won't make the playoffs, the Indians will be better, probably the imaginary six-seed in the playoffs, the Twins will regress after a nice 2015, and the Tigers are old and not the Yankees, so they'll play like you think they would.
And I'm picking the White Sox to finish in last place because that would be the most hilarious thing to happen after their clusterfuck of a spring training. And one more article on that for good measure because it amuses me so.
AL West
1. Houston Astros*
2. Texas Rangers*
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
4. Seattle Mariners
5. Oakland Athletics
Yeah, I'm all-in on the Astros. I don't think they'll make a lot of hay in the playoffs (that's for next year, apparently), but I definitely think they can win the AL West.
The Rangers are the only other team that can vie for a division title, and I think they'll finish about a game behind the Astros. The Angels have Mike Trout and... okay, just Mike Trout. But that might be enough to secure a third-place finish.
The easiest team to place was the A's, since they're going to be hot garbage and almost-guaranteed to be the worst team in the American League. The Mariners could finish anywhere from third to fifth and I wouldn't be surprised (except maybe fifth, because, again, the A's will be hot garbage).
NL East
1. New York Mets*
2. Washington Nationals*
3. Miami Marlins
4. Philadelphia Phillies
5. Atlanta Braves
Things that are guaranteed: the Mets and Nationals will be in the division title hunt, the Phillies and Braves will each be bad, and the Marlins will be somewhere in the middle.
This is the year where all good things are pointing in the Mets' general direction- they have the best starting rotation in the Majors and they have some competent bats going into opening day for the first time in a while. Meanwhile, the Nationals are still smarting from their epic collapse last year and lost a fair amount of talent in the offseason. So I won't be at all surprised if the Nationals are the ones to win the NL East and the Mets somehow find a way to bow out of the playoffs all together.
But screw pessimism for right now. I'm going with the Mets to win the division with the Nationals the only clear challenge to that throne.
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs*
2. Pittsburgh Pirates*
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Milwaukee Brewers
Yeah, I'm all in on the Cubs, too. That team's going to be incredible, no two ways about it. Unless they aren't, which is also possible. Sports are weird.
The Pirates are expected to regress, but, on paper at least, they don't seem that much better or worse than the Cardinals. I could see either the Pirates or the Cardinals finishing second (I could also see the Cardinals finishing in first, because they're the Cardinals, the Yankees of the National League for a variety of reasons), but I'll go with the Pirates because, eh, fuck the Cardinals, I guess.
The Reds and Brewers have no shot at a playoff berth or even a third-place finish. Neither of those teams will be ready to compete again until near the end of the decade at the earliest. Ever the optimist, I am, I am.
NL West
1. San Francisco Giants*
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. San Diego Padres
5. Colorado Rockies
It's an even-numbered year, so the Giants will be back in the postseason. That's only partially why I chose them as division champions. The other, probably more vital reason, is that the Dodgers got worse through subtraction, while the Diamondbacks got slightly better through addition. I'm speaking of course of Zack Greinke now pitching in the desert while the Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw and not much else.
In spite of that, the Dodgers are still a better team than the Diamondbacks (though the gap is closing between them). The Dodgers' starting rotation is problematic outside of Kershaw, but they're still a good team. The Diamondbacks are also a good team with a bunch of intriguing-to-outright-great offensive players. But I think the Dodgers are still better than the Diamondbacks, so there were are.
Meanwhile, the Padres and Rockies will both be terrible. The bottom two teams in each division in the National League are pretty grim.
***
Now with all that out of the way, how about I jump the gun completely and predict the playoffs? This surely will all be an accurate portrait of the actual playoff picture in six months.
American League
1. Kansas City Royals
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Houston Astros
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Texas Rangers
National League
1. Chicago Cubs
2. New York Mets
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Washington Nationals
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
LCS
ALCS: #1 Royals vs. #2 Blue Jays (Royals over Blue Jays, 4-2)
NLCS: #1 Cubs vs. #2 Mets (Cubs over Mets, 4-3)
The Blue Jays are good enough to make the ALCS, but they don't match up well against the Royals at all. Sure, they'll take a couple games from them, but the Royals have the clear advantage.
And I'm all for rematches in the respective LCS of the previous season's match-up (that hasn't happened in the NL since 2008-2009, in the AL since 2003-2004, and both leagues haven't seen direct rematches since 1977-1978; so what I'm saying is that this probably won't shake out).
The Cubs will probably learn from their sweep at the Mets' hands from 2015 and rebound this year. The Mets have a better starting rotation than the Cubs, but the Cubs most definitely have a better offense than the Mets. And the Cubs are so loaded offensively that even a couple breaks going their way will favor them exceptionally more than the Mets. So a full seven-game NLCS as opposed to a four-game sweep, and with the opposite team winning.
World Series
Royals over Cubs, 4-2
No matter which league has home-field advantage, I think the Royals have the upper-hand over the Cubs. And while it'll be nice to see the Cubs in the Fall Classic for the since the Truman administration, I don't think they'll be getting their first World Series win since the Roosevelt administration (that's Teddy Roosevelt- it's been a while).
The Cubs will be fun to watch, it'll possibly a prelude for potential greatness in the future, but I think the Royals can and will repeat as champions.
***
And that'll do it. We'll kick off MLB's Opening Day with a profile of those defending champion Royals. See you on Sunday.
Wednesday, March 30, 2016
Sunday, February 7, 2016
SUPER BOWL 50 PREVIEW AND PREDICTION
As is tradition around these parts, I'll be breaking down the two Super Bowl teams to try and find out which one is better set up for a victory. Let's get things rolling with the miscellaneous fun shit.
The Broncos are now in a four-way tie for most appearances in the Super Bowl with eight (joining the Cowboys, Steelers and Patriots in the process). Coincidentally, the Broncos will once again be facing a team making the Super Bowl for the second time without a win to show for it. Also coincidentally, like the 2013 Seahawks before them, the 2015 Panthers are significantly better than their last Super Bowl team.
The Panthers are the fourth team to ever make the Super Bowl after winning at least 15 games in the regular season. 15+ win teams are 2-1 in the Super Bowl, the one loss being the Patriots' failed bid for 19-0 in Super Bowl XLII.
This is the first time each coach has made the Super Bowl, which is the first time that's happened since the Harbaugh Bros each made it to Super Bowl XLVII. Gary Kubiak backed up John Elway in the Broncos' three Super Bowl losses in the 80s, while he won two-straight championships as the Broncos' offensive coordinator in the late 90s. All told, Kubiak has been involved with every Broncos Super Bowl appearance in some form or fashion except for two.
Ron Rivera also has experience in the Super Bowl. He was a linebacker on the 1985 Chicago Bears and was also defensive coordinator of the 2006 Bears which lost Super Bowl XLI. Fittingly, 30 years after the '85 Bears, a Bears alum is coaching a 15-1 NFC team in the Super Bowl.
Finally, this is the third-straight year the two top-ranked teams in both conferences are facing off in the Super Bowl. That hasn't happened since the NFL formally adopted proper playoff seeding in 1975.
Now with all that out of the way, let's take a gander at both teams' respective offenses.
Yeah, these aren't the 2013 Broncos. They float at around average in pretty much every category. Though I am surprised that they're ranked as high as they are in passing yards, considering Peyton Manning's poor play in the regular season.
The Panthers, meanwhile, can score like mother bears and in a variety of ways. This is the most potent scoring offense in team history, and they also take good care of the ball while protecting Cam Newton at a decent rate.
The Broncos turn the ball over nearly twice a game, so, as always, the turnover battle will likely be key to either team's success.
Onto defense.
These are two great, evenly-matched defenses. The Broncos have the edge over the Panthers in every category except turnovers (intrigue piqued). The Panthers allow about 35 more passing yards on average than the Broncos, but, given how Manning has looked this year, that probably won't be much of an issue (watch, now Peyton Manning will throw for 400 yards).
I'm really curious to see how Cam Newton holds up against the Broncos defense. He hasn't faced a defense this great all season and the Broncos are the best pass-rushing team in the NFL. Something has to give.
Finally, let's look at special teams.
Nothing really leaps out except for the Broncos forcing teams to punt nearly six times a game (duh, their defense is good). The key here may be the Broncos' great kick return coverage, which was one of the best units in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Panthers had the worst kick return unit in the league this season.
The field goal defensive unit is an interesting thing to look at for the Panthers, but that often adds up to luck as much as it does to actual skill at preventing field goals. Still, given the ways both teams are set up on defense, a made field goal could mean the game.
***
And now, the prediction. While I have no idea how Cam Newton will play, I'm still more confident he'll play better than Peyton Manning. Manning's biggest trump card is that this is likely his final game, and the Broncos will be playing extra hard for him (and for DeMarcus Ware, who's playing in his first Super Bowl after a long career).
That emotional wild card could make things interesting, and I expect the game will be close. But I'll say the Carolina Panthers will beat the Denver Broncos by about a field goal.
All stats and info found on pro-football-reference.com.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
|
GENERAL
|
DENVER BRONCOS
|
Ron Rivera (5/5)
|
Head Coach (Yrs Exp/Yrs w/
Tm)
|
Gary Kubiak (9/1)
|
NFC
|
Conference
|
AFC
|
South
|
Division
|
West
|
15-1
|
Record
|
12-4
|
1
|
Conference Rank
|
1
|
1995 (21)
|
First Season (Season #)
|
1960 (56)
|
2
|
# Super Bowl Appearance
|
8
|
0
|
Championships Won
|
2
|
N/A
|
Last Super Bowl Win
(Season)
|
XXXIII (1998)
|
XXXVIII (2003)
|
Last Super Bowl Appearance
(Season)
|
XLVIII (2013)
|
The Broncos are now in a four-way tie for most appearances in the Super Bowl with eight (joining the Cowboys, Steelers and Patriots in the process). Coincidentally, the Broncos will once again be facing a team making the Super Bowl for the second time without a win to show for it. Also coincidentally, like the 2013 Seahawks before them, the 2015 Panthers are significantly better than their last Super Bowl team.
The Panthers are the fourth team to ever make the Super Bowl after winning at least 15 games in the regular season. 15+ win teams are 2-1 in the Super Bowl, the one loss being the Patriots' failed bid for 19-0 in Super Bowl XLII.
This is the first time each coach has made the Super Bowl, which is the first time that's happened since the Harbaugh Bros each made it to Super Bowl XLVII. Gary Kubiak backed up John Elway in the Broncos' three Super Bowl losses in the 80s, while he won two-straight championships as the Broncos' offensive coordinator in the late 90s. All told, Kubiak has been involved with every Broncos Super Bowl appearance in some form or fashion except for two.
Ron Rivera also has experience in the Super Bowl. He was a linebacker on the 1985 Chicago Bears and was also defensive coordinator of the 2006 Bears which lost Super Bowl XLI. Fittingly, 30 years after the '85 Bears, a Bears alum is coaching a 15-1 NFC team in the Super Bowl.
Finally, this is the third-straight year the two top-ranked teams in both conferences are facing off in the Super Bowl. That hasn't happened since the NFL formally adopted proper playoff seeding in 1975.
Now with all that out of the way, let's take a gander at both teams' respective offenses.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
|
OFFENSE PER GAME
|
DENVER BRONCOS
|
366.94 (11)
|
Total Offense (Rk)
|
355.50 (16)
|
224.31 (24)
|
Passing Yards For (Rk)
|
248.13 (14)
|
142.63 (2)
|
Rushing Yards For (Rk)
|
107.38 (17)
|
2.19 (T3)
|
Passing Touchdowns For
(Rk)
|
1.19 (28)
|
1.19 (T1)
|
Rushing Touchdowns For
(Rk)
|
0.81 (T12)
|
31.25 (1)
|
Points Scored (Rk)
|
22.19 (19)
|
1.19 (T8)
|
Turnovers Allowed (Rk)
|
1.94 (T29)
|
2.06 (T11)
|
Sacks Allowed (Rk)
|
2.44 (20)
|
22.31 (4)
|
First Downs Gained (Rk)
|
19.63 (19)
|
Yeah, these aren't the 2013 Broncos. They float at around average in pretty much every category. Though I am surprised that they're ranked as high as they are in passing yards, considering Peyton Manning's poor play in the regular season.
The Panthers, meanwhile, can score like mother bears and in a variety of ways. This is the most potent scoring offense in team history, and they also take good care of the ball while protecting Cam Newton at a decent rate.
The Broncos turn the ball over nearly twice a game, so, as always, the turnover battle will likely be key to either team's success.
Onto defense.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
|
DEFENSE PER GAME
|
DENVER BRONCOS
|
322.94 (6)
|
Total Defense (Rk)
|
283.13 (1)
|
234.50 (11)
|
Passing Yards Allowed (Rk)
|
199.56 (1)
|
88.44 (4)
|
Rushing Yards Allowed (Rk)
|
83.56 (3)
|
1.31 (T7)
|
Passing Touchdowns Allowed
(Rk)
|
1.19 (T3)
|
0.69 (T17)
|
Rushing Touchdowns Allowed
(Rk)
|
0.63 (T10)
|
19.25 (6)
|
Points Allowed (Rk)
|
18.50 (4)
|
2.44 (1)
|
Turnovers Caused (Rk)
|
1.69 (T8)
|
2.75 (6)
|
Sacks (Rk)
|
3.25 (1)
|
18.63 (6)
|
First Downs Allowed (Rk)
|
18.06 (5)
|
These are two great, evenly-matched defenses. The Broncos have the edge over the Panthers in every category except turnovers (intrigue piqued). The Panthers allow about 35 more passing yards on average than the Broncos, but, given how Manning has looked this year, that probably won't be much of an issue (watch, now Peyton Manning will throw for 400 yards).
I'm really curious to see how Cam Newton holds up against the Broncos defense. He hasn't faced a defense this great all season and the Broncos are the best pass-rushing team in the NFL. Something has to give.
Finally, let's look at special teams.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
|
SPECIAL TEAMS/GAME
|
DENVER BRONCOS
|
2.25 (T7)
|
Field Goals Attempted (Rk)
|
2.19 (9)
|
1.88 (T6)
|
Field Goals Made (Rk)
|
1.88 (T6)
|
83.3 (T19)
|
Field Goal Percentage (Rk)
|
85.7 (T14)
|
4.38 (T10)
|
Punt Attempts (Rk)
|
5.31 (T25)
|
1.63 (T2)
|
Field Goal Attempts
Against (Rk)
|
2.00 (21)
|
1.25 (T2)
|
Field Goals Allowed (Rk)
|
1.56 (T13)
|
76.9 (T3)
|
Opp. Field Goal Percentage
(Rk)
|
78.1 (6)
|
4.88 (T13)
|
Punts Against (Rk)
|
5.75 (2)
|
17.63 (19)
|
Punt Return Yards For (Rk)
|
17.69 (18)
|
25.44 (32)
|
Kick Return Yards For (Rk)
|
36.75 (26)
|
18.00 (18)
|
Punt Return Yards Allowed
(Rk)
|
15.44 (13)
|
56.56 (20)
|
Kick Return Yards Allowed
(Rk)
|
31.75 (T3)
|
Nothing really leaps out except for the Broncos forcing teams to punt nearly six times a game (duh, their defense is good). The key here may be the Broncos' great kick return coverage, which was one of the best units in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Panthers had the worst kick return unit in the league this season.
The field goal defensive unit is an interesting thing to look at for the Panthers, but that often adds up to luck as much as it does to actual skill at preventing field goals. Still, given the ways both teams are set up on defense, a made field goal could mean the game.
***
And now, the prediction. While I have no idea how Cam Newton will play, I'm still more confident he'll play better than Peyton Manning. Manning's biggest trump card is that this is likely his final game, and the Broncos will be playing extra hard for him (and for DeMarcus Ware, who's playing in his first Super Bowl after a long career).
That emotional wild card could make things interesting, and I expect the game will be close. But I'll say the Carolina Panthers will beat the Denver Broncos by about a field goal.
All stats and info found on pro-football-reference.com.
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