Okay, okay, I haven't done a lot of writing lately (I've done four articles since May). I DO have an article waiting in the wings, but I can't publish it for another couple months, you'll understand when you see it. Another article idea is going to need more research done before I can start writing it.
So I do have ideas, it's just that I haven't, y'know, been writing them. So to fill the time before my next article, here's my half-assed predictions on who will win the major awards in baseball this year now that we're almost to the All-Star break. Here we go!
Note: Seeing as I'm not clairvoyant and thus can't see the future, this is all presuming, likely incorrectly, that all of the stats I bring up will stand over the next three months. Take this with a grain of salt. These are just who I think will win the awards if they were being given out RIGHT NOW. With that in mind, you may now proceed.
P.P.S. I'm not doing a prediction for Manager of the Year because I simply don't give a damn.
Rookie of the Year
American League: Either Jose Abreu (CWS) or Masahiro Tanaka (NYY) make any sense to this point. Personally I'd prefer Abreu over Tanaka (this isn't my usual anti-Yankee stance, I have a point).
Abreu is actually a rookie in every respect, coming up through the minors and all. Tanaka has been pitching against major league quality hitters since 2007, only this year he's doing it in the United States rather than Japan. It'd be like when Ichiro Suzuki won the award back in 2001. Yeah he was great that year, but he also was only a rookie in terms of it being his first year in the American majors. He had already had a hall of fame career in Japan to that point.
Eh, I don't know. Both are great. Abreu currently leads the AL in homers (well, he's in a three-way tie, which is still impressive) and Tanaka leads the AL in pitching wins and ERA. Either would be a good choice (but I'd prefer Abreu).
National League: Billy Hamilton (CIN) or Gregory Polanco (PIT)
Hamilton is doing alright in the hitting department (he's currently slashing .279/.309/.400 in 312 plate appearances), but he's second in the NL in stolen bases with 35, behind only the Dodgers' Dee Gordon with 40.
Polanco on the other hand is hitting really well for a rookie. In 98 plate appearances so far this season, he's slashing .306/.392/.435 with a .827 OPS. He's also 22. He's my pick as long as he keeps his average about the same through the rest of the season. If Hamilton makes a surge and Polanco sputters, then I'll pick Hamilton.
Cy Young Award
American League: Felix Hernandez (SEA) or David Price (TBR, for now).
Hernandez is absolutely killing it so far this year. His 2.10 ERA is identical to Tanaka's and he currently leads the AL in WHIP and winning percentage. He's also on a team that's doing better than almost anyone figured they would.
That last point kind of hurts the argument for Price, seeing as he's on a wretched Rays team (alteration!). But Price currently leads in strikeouts and innings pitched. Of course, his ERA isn't great at 3.50 and he also leads the AL in home runs given up. Personally, I'd make it Cy Young number two for King Felix.
National League: Clayton Kershaw (LAD) or Adam Wainwright (STL)
They're both incredible right now. Kershaw has a 2.04 ERA, leads the NL in winning percentage, and has a 0.920 WHIP. Wainwright leads with a 1.89 ERA, leads with 11 wins, has a 0.895 WHIP and has nearly 50 innings on Kershaw. Again, assuming everything remains the same for the last few months of the season (it won't, but please humor me), I'd take Wainwright.
(Another thing working against Kershaw, as ridiculous as this sounds, the fact that he's won two Cy Youngs in the last three years and finished second or higher three years running might put him out of the running by a hair. Voter fatigue, it's called. It's dumb, but the fact that Wainwright is playing so well and has yet to win a Cy Young may work in his favor.)
MVP
American League: Mike Trout, Mike Trout, Mike freaking Trout of the Angels. He's once again having a phenomenal year, slashing .311/.405/.609, leads the AL in OPS, has hit 19 home runs and has 50 walks. I think this is the year he breaks through the Miguel Cabrera ceiling.
Speaking of Miguel Cabrera, he's also having an awesome year, but all of the other stats I mentioned in Trout's section are lower for the reigning MVP except for batting average (they're hitting an identical .311). If the Angels make the playoffs, the voters will really latch on to Trout then (the Tigers SHOULD make the playoffs in the AL Central).
Other candidates include Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista, both of the Blue Jays. Encarnacion due to his league tying 26 home runs and Bautista for being the better overall player on a surprising Blue Jays team. I don't see either having much of a prayer, but one of them might finish in the top five if the Jays make the playoffs.
Felix Hernandez also has a decent shot of finishing high in the voting if the Mariners finish just outside of or inside of a playoff berth.
National League: Troy Tulowitzki of the Rockies. Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates. The best position players this year are on crappy teams.
Tulowitzki is leading in batting line. That's not a typo. He is leading the NL in slugging percentage with .613 and leads the MAJORS in batting average (.351), OBP (.443) and OPS (1.056). It's a superb offensive season no matter how you look at it, but voters might still discount him due to the light air at Coors Field.
McCutchen is also having a good year, definitely MVP-caliber. He's slashing .313/.419/.519 with a .938 OPS and leads the NL in walks. Except for batting average, all the numbers in his batting line are up currently on his numbers last year when he won the MVP.
If the Pirates rebound in the second half, maybe the voters will go with McCutchen then (hell, they'll probably go with him anyway). But right now, I'd go with Tulowitzki, even though the Rockies have a bad record and will likely not do much of anything for the rest of the season. He's having an exceptional year.
Other candidates are Adam Wainwright and Clayton Kershaw for reasons mentioned in their Cy Young columns. That's really it, though. The NL is pretty cut and dry, even for fun candidates.
***
Well, that's it. Now to write other stuff that'll make on here one day.
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