SUPER BOWL 49 PREVIEW AND PREDICTION

It's Super Bowl Sunday tomorrow. So let's check out the two teams that will be playing in the big game: the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks. But first, here's how I did predicting the Conference Championship Games, because that's clearly the most important detail in this article.

Conference Championship Record: 2-0 (1.000)
Total Playoff Record: 8-2 (.800)

There! Now, just who are these teams?

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS	GENERAL	SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Bill Belichick (20/15)	Head Coach (Yrs Exp/Yrs w/ Tm)	Pete Carroll (9/5)
AFC	Conference	NFC
East	Division	West
12-4	Record	12-4
1	Conference Rank	1
1960 (55)	First Season (Season #)	1976 (39)
8	# Super Bowl Appearance	3
3	Championships Won	1
XXXIX (2004)	Last Super Bowl Win (Season)	XLVIII (2013)
XLVI (2011)	Last Super Bowl Appearance (Season)	XLVIII (2013)

The Seahawks are the first team to go to back-to-back Super Bowls since the 2003-2004 Patriots, ironically enough. Interestingly enough, who was the guy who was coaching the Patriots before Bill Belichick? Pete Carroll. Hmm...

Also interestingly, the Patriots are now tied with the Steelers and Cowboys for most Super Bowl appearances by a team in history with eight. Belichick has also tied Don Shula with the most Super Bowl appearances as a head coach in history with six. Tom Brady will be the first quarterback to play in six Super Bowls.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS	OFFENSE	SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
5,848 (11)	Total Offense (Rk)	6,012 (9)
4,121 (9)	Passing Yards For (Rk)	3,250 (27)
1,727 (18)	Rushing Yards For (Rk)	2,762 (1)
34 (5)	Passing Touchdowns For (Rk)	20 (22)
13 (T12)	Rushing Touchdowns For (Rk)	20 (1)
468 (4)	Points Scored (Rk)	394 (10)
13 (T1)	Turnovers Allowed (Rk)	14 (3)
26 (T4)	Sacks Allowed (Rk)	42 (T20)
361 (4)	First Downs Gained (Rk)	328 (14)

If I asked a random person on the street which team gained more total yards this year, the vast majority would erroneously pick the Patriots. Now, that number for the Seahawks is helped greatly by Marshawn Lynch, whereas the Patriots had a running back-by committee for much of the season.

The Seahawks' passing game is pretty lame statistically, but that doesn't mean Russell Wilson is a bad quarterback. Wilson threw 20 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions with a 63.1 completion percentage. He threw "only" 452 pass attempts (19th-most in 2014).

More significantly, Wilson hasn't had the best protection this year. Patriots quarterbacks, meanwhile, were only sacked 26 times. If the Patriots are going to win this game, they're going to have to pressure Wilson into taking sacks and turning the ball over. No easy task- both teams were at or near the top of the league in protecting the ball.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS	DEFENSE	SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
5,506 (13)	Total Defense (Rk)	4,274 (1)
3,837 (17)	Passing Yards Allowed (Rk)	2,970 (1)
1,669 (9)	Rushing Yards Allowed (Rk)	1,304 (3)
24 (T12)	Passing Touchdowns Allowed (Rk)	17 (2)
6 (T2)	Rushing Touchdowns Allowed (Rk)	8 (T5)
313 (8)	Points Allowed (Rk)	254 (1)
25 (T14)	Turnovers Caused (Rk)	24 (T20)
40 (T13)	Sacks (Rk)	37 (20)
329 (22)	First Downs Allowed (Rk)	277 (1)

You have to go back to the late-60s, early-70s Minnesota Vikings in order to find defenses as dominant as these Seahawks. The Seahawks are the first team since those Vikings to lead the league in points allowed for three-straight seasons, and the first since those Vikings to lead the league in both points allowed and total yards allowed in consecutive seasons. So yeah, they're really, really good.

Beyond their historical greatness, the Seahawks were in the top five in all relevant team-defensive categories, except for turnovers and sacks. Oddly enough, the Seahawks and Patriots were both around the league average in sacks and turnovers.

The Patriots defense, as it has been for much of the last decade, was okay to bad, buoyed by their great offense (i.e. Tom Brady).

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS	SPECIAL TEAMS	SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
37 (T4)	Field Goals Attempted (Rk)	37 (T4)
35 (1)	Field Goals Made (Rk)	31 (5)
94.6 (2)	Field Goal Percentage (Rk)	83.8 (17)
67 (T24)	Punt Attempts (Rk)	62 (T26)
37 (T25)	Field Goal Attempts Against (Rk)	24 (6)
29 (T19)	Field Goals Allowed (Rk)	21 (T6)
78.4 (5)	Opp. Field Goal Percentage (Rk)	87.5 (T25)
65 (26)	Punts Against (Rk)	83 (T6)
431 (5)	Punt Return Yards For (Rk)	252 (19)
693 (26)	Kick Return Yards For (Rk)	820 (17)
267 (17)	Punt Return Yards Allowed (Rk)	195 (7)
955 (19)	Kick Return Yards Allowed (Rk)	1,035 (22)

Shockingly, neither of these teams had to punt much. The Seahawks were one of the best teams in forcing opponents to punt (surprise, surprise). Aside from the Patriots having a really good field goal percentage, nothing really pops out on special teams; both teams are solid but not spectacular.

***

So with all that said, who do I got? Just like the Broncos last year, the Patriots haven't seen a defense the caliber of Seattle's all season. The only one that comes close was the Chiefs' (who beat both of these teams, by the way), but even then, the Chiefs allowed nearly two points more per game more than the Seahawks. That doesn't sound like a lot, but that can make all the difference in this game.

Seattle is a throwback team, built up by an elite running game and a dominant defense. Russell Wilson is a strong number two option in their offense, but he has the ability to be able take over games at the right times.

In the NFC Championship Game, Wilson was god-awful for roughly 85% of the game and the Seahawks were down 16-0 at the half against the Packers. The way they were playing, they're luck they weren't down 28-0. Or 32-0. The game could've gotten away from them completely with thirty minutes to go, but the defense "only" allowed 16 points.

In the second half, Marshawn Lynch took over and the defense continued to play great. Wilson came alive in the 4th and overtime, and that was all she wrote.

It's probably a mistake to completely discount the Patriots, and truthfully, a Patriots win wouldn't be a total shock. With that said, I don't think that will happen. This Seahawks team is more versatile than the Patriots, who have a great passing game and not much else. Against perhaps the best defense the NFL has seen in over a decade, if not longer, that's not going to get it done.

Pick: Seattle