Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals
Denver Broncos
Indianapolis Colts
Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers
That's nine teams out of 16. So who is likely to make it?
First, let's separate the elite teams from the second-tier teams. The Patriots, Broncos and Colts are all but locks to make the postseason since they're the strongest teams their respective divisions.
That leaves the winner of the AFC North and two wild card spots. The Bengals are probably the most talented team with the fewest question marks of any team in the North. They have a good shot and winning the division, but what hangs me up is that the rest of the conference got tougher.
Going on last year, there were only seven teams in the AFC in my mind that had playoff-caliber teams. That number increased by two this year, which means the AFC schedule is theoretically more of a pain this year than it was 12 months ago. I don't know how the Bengals will hold up with that.
The Bengals went 8-4 in conference play in 2013 and 7-5 in 2014 (they were 11-5 and 10-5-1 totally, respectively). They have a pretty rough schedule, facing off against improved Raiders and Bills teams, plus going against the NFC West. I think they'll have a winning record, but I don't know if that will translate into a division title, let alone a playoff spot.
While the Ravens also have a tough schedule, I think they'll do a better job in conference play. I'm fully prepared to be wrong on this and have the Bengals and Ravens swap places in the final standings, but for now I'll go with Baltimore as AFC North champions.
That takes care of the division winners. That leaves the Bills, Bengals, Chiefs, Dolphins and Steelers competing for the wild card spots. Unlike when we eliminated the strongest teams above, let's eliminate the teams with the most going against them.
The Steelers' defense will be one of the worst among the playoff contenders, and will likely sink them. Meanwhile, the Bills' quarterback situation is very worrisome and likely sinks them as well. That leaves the Bengals, Chiefs and Dolphins.
The Dolphins don't face the Chiefs or Bengals in 2015 and also benefit from a pretty easy schedule, so they're in. The Chiefs have to travel to Cincinnati to face the Bengals. Even if the Bengals win that game, I still think the Chiefs will get the nod over them, due to the Chiefs also have a slightly easier schedule. So that leaves the Bengals as one of the conference's better teams on the outside looking in.
With all that said, here's what I think the playoff seeding will look like in the AFC:
AFC Playoffs
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. New England Patriots
3. Denver Broncos
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Miami Dolphins
Now to the NFC. Here are the playoff hopefuls in that conference:
Arizona Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
Dallas Cowboys
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans Saints
Philadelphia Eagles
Seattle Seahawks
St. Louis Rams
That's 11 teams. We can pencil in the Packers and Seahawks as division winners without thinking too hard about it. In the NFC East, the Cowboys aren't as talented as the Eagles, but with so much turnover in Philadelphia I think the Cowboys have the advantage.
That leaves the NFC South, the worst division in the league. The Falcons, Panthers and Saints are all flawed teams playing in a flawed division. Whoever doesn't win the division will not be in the playoffs. The Saints' defense is going to be abysmal and the Panthers' offense will likely not be much better. The Falcons have more going for them by comparison. I think Dan Quinn could jury-rig a defense together to complement an offense that will likely be good. So yeah, the Falcons win the division based on being slightly less crap than the other teams.
That leaves the Cardinals, Lions, Vikings, Eagles and Rams as wild card contenders. The Rams are the weakest team in that lineup and I don't like their chances against any of the other teams I just mentioned, so they're out. The Eagles similarly are probably too green (no pun intended) to be anything other than a spoiler for the season. Ten wins should be enough for a playoff spot and I think the Eagles can reach that milestone. But I also think they'll lose on a tiebreaker with another team.
The Cardinals will make the playoffs as they're one of the more balanced teams (so long as Carson Palmer is healthy). That leaves the NFC North rival Lions and Vikings competing for the last spot. Are the Lions the better team than the Vikings? Probably. But as I mentioned in the NFC preview, I don't trust Jim Caldwell to build on his initial success with the team. If anything, I expect the Lions to regress. That leaves the Vikings, a team with a rocket strapped to their collective asses. With a good defense and a good, young quarterback, plus one of the best running backs in the NFL, the Vikings get the nod over the Lions.
Here's how the seeding will look in my mind:
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. New England Patriots
3. Denver Broncos
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Miami Dolphins
Now to the NFC. Here are the playoff hopefuls in that conference:
Arizona Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
Dallas Cowboys
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans Saints
Philadelphia Eagles
Seattle Seahawks
St. Louis Rams
That's 11 teams. We can pencil in the Packers and Seahawks as division winners without thinking too hard about it. In the NFC East, the Cowboys aren't as talented as the Eagles, but with so much turnover in Philadelphia I think the Cowboys have the advantage.
That leaves the NFC South, the worst division in the league. The Falcons, Panthers and Saints are all flawed teams playing in a flawed division. Whoever doesn't win the division will not be in the playoffs. The Saints' defense is going to be abysmal and the Panthers' offense will likely not be much better. The Falcons have more going for them by comparison. I think Dan Quinn could jury-rig a defense together to complement an offense that will likely be good. So yeah, the Falcons win the division based on being slightly less crap than the other teams.
That leaves the Cardinals, Lions, Vikings, Eagles and Rams as wild card contenders. The Rams are the weakest team in that lineup and I don't like their chances against any of the other teams I just mentioned, so they're out. The Eagles similarly are probably too green (no pun intended) to be anything other than a spoiler for the season. Ten wins should be enough for a playoff spot and I think the Eagles can reach that milestone. But I also think they'll lose on a tiebreaker with another team.
The Cardinals will make the playoffs as they're one of the more balanced teams (so long as Carson Palmer is healthy). That leaves the NFC North rival Lions and Vikings competing for the last spot. Are the Lions the better team than the Vikings? Probably. But as I mentioned in the NFC preview, I don't trust Jim Caldwell to build on his initial success with the team. If anything, I expect the Lions to regress. That leaves the Vikings, a team with a rocket strapped to their collective asses. With a good defense and a good, young quarterback, plus one of the best running backs in the NFL, the Vikings get the nod over the Lions.
Here's how the seeding will look in my mind:
NFC Playoffs
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. Dallas Cowboys
4. Atlanta Falcons
5. Arizona Cardinals
6. Minnesota Vikings
And now, the playoff predictions proper:
Wild Card Round
Broncos over Dolphins
The Broncos at home against a team that hasn't made the playoffs since 2008? I'll take the Broncos, please.
Cowboys over Vikings
The Cowboys are the more experienced team so they have the advantage over the young Vikings. Of course, if any team could screw up a favorable playoff matchup, it's the Cowboys. I'm still going conservative for this prediction.
Chiefs over Ravens
Yeah, I'm going for it. The Chiefs with the road playoff win. That'll probably backfire horribly, but there it is. They have a really, really good defense and I think they can hang with the Ravens.
Cardinals over Falcons
The Cardinals win in a blowout.
Divisional Round
Patriots over Broncos
The Broncos don't play well in Foxborough, especially in January. That'll hold true this year again.
Seahawks over Cowboys
Believe in the home-field advantage for the Seahawks.
Colts over Chiefs
An exact rematch from their nutty playoff game in 2013 season. Same result, perhaps not with the same fireworks as the other game.
Packers over Cardinals
Yeah, I'm really going on a limb with no road teams winning in round two. But still, the Packers in Lambeau in January? Come on.
AFC Conference Championship Game
Colts over Patriots
This is a real tough one, but I'll go with the Colts due to them being at home in my fantasy world. It'll likely be close and really fun, though.
NFC Conference Championship Game
Packers over Seahawks
Another tough call, but the Seahawks aren't as good on the road and the Packers will be itching to beat them after last season's letdown. I think it'll be closer than a lot of people would think, but the end result would still be a Packers win.
Super Bowl 50
Packers over Colts
The Packers are the better team. Aaron Rodgers will probably go Joe-Montana-in-Super-Bowl-XXIV on the Colts' defense.
***
And that's what I think. But it's probably not what's going to happen. Just saying.
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