Sunday, August 9, 2015

POTENTIAL 2016 PRO FOOTBALL HALL OF FAME CANIDATES

Gonna be real here- there aren't a lot of obvious, slam dunk, hall-of-fame caliber players up for induction this year, with only a couple exceptions. So I'm just going to fill this list with players with obvious shots at induction and big names who have next to no chance of getting in. Mostly, this is just a scrapbook where you can say "Damn, he's been retired for five years already?".

Anyway, let's take a look at the prospects.

Alan Faneca (OG)
1998-2007 Pittsburgh Steelers, 2008-2009 New York Jets, 2010 Arizona Cardinals

Accomplishments: 9x Pro Bowl selection (2001-2009); 6x 1st Team All-Pro (2001-2002, 2004-2007); 2000s All-Decade Team (1st Team); Super Bowl Champion (2005)

Pros: Among the most dominant guards of his era, Faneca only missed one game from 2000 to 2010. In fact, he started more games during the length of his career (201) than any other offensive lineman. Teams that had Faneca on its line finished in the top 10 in rushing 11 times, twice as the league's best.

Cons: Guard is a weird position. Since 1990, 11 players that were exclusively guards have been enshrined in the hall of fame, a whopping 7.5% of all inductees. And of those 11, only John Hannah and Larry Allen went in on their first ballots. History isn't exactly in Faneca's favor in that regard.

Overall: Faneca was an excellent player and helped his teams win a lot of games. He's definitely going to be inducted at some point, whether it's this year or shortly thereafter. I think he has the credentials to go in on his first ballot, but because of recent precedent I can't say that he's a lock, even though his play says he is.

HoF Projection: Pretty Good

Brett Favre (QB)
1991 Atlanta Falcons, 1992-2007 Green Bay Packers, 2008 New York Jets, 2009-2010 Minnesota Vikings

Accomplishments: 11x Pro Bowl selection (1992-1993, 1995-1997, 2001-2003, 2007-2009); 3x 1st Team All-Pro (1995-1997); 3x NFL MVP (1995-1997) (co-MVP in 1997 with Barry Sanders); Super Bowl Champion (1996); 70,000 passing yards club; 500 passing touchdowns club

Pros: Where to start? Besides his credentials above, Favre ranks second all-time with 508 touchdowns and first all-time with 71,838 passing yards (though barring some unforeseen circumstance Peyton Manning will top that mark this season). He was surprisingly accurate with a career pass completion of 62%.

He also started a record 321 games between the regular season an playoffs. That's a streak that lasted more than 18 years, despite being sacked 525 times (which is also a record).

Finally, he aged remarkably well, culminating in his 2009 season with the Vikings where he had, statistically, the best season of his career (4,202 yards, 33 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 68.4 completion percentage- all career highs or lows).

Cons: Of the 19 seasons Favre was the main starting quarterback for his teams, he threw single-digit interceptions just once. Indeed, he also holds the record for most passes intercepted with 336 (he's the only player in NFL history to throw over 300 in regular-season play). His 30 interception in the playoffs are also a record. And he had a 23-13 record against the Bears, which means nothing but makes me sad.

Overall: The interceptions are a meaningless knock- Favre threw so many INTs because he had the confidence of his coaches to throw so much. His TD/INT ratio isn't quite 2:1, but he obviously threw significantly more touchdowns than picks. Did he throw some games and potential championships away with errant throws? Yeah. But every quarterback, great or otherwise, has done that in the past and will do that in the future.

Bottom line, Favre is one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game and is a lock in every sense of the word. He's going in next year.

HoF Projection: Slam Dunk

Joey Galloway (WR)
1995-1999 Seattle Seahawks, 2000-2003 Dallas Cowboys, 2004-2008 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2009 New England Patriots, 2010 Washington Redskins

Accomplishments: 10,000 receiving yards club

Pros: Galloway was a decent receiver that had a fine, long career and was occasionally very good, specifically his 1997, 1998 and 2005 seasons.

Cons: Galloway was never a top player. He rarely had catch percentages (how many balls he caught compared to how many times he was targeted) above 50% (four times from 1998 on). He was largely injured and went six-straight seasons without topping 1,000 receiving yards. He never was in the top ten of a given season for receptions and was only in the top ten for receiving yards once and receiving touchdowns twice.

Overall: Galloway had a fine career, but he is not of hall-of-fame quality.

HoF Projection: Not This Year

Terrell Owens (WR)
1996-2003 San Francisco 49ers, 2004-2005 Philadelphia Eagles, 2006-2008 Dallas Cowboys, 2009 Buffalo Bills, 2010 Cincinnati Bengals

Accomplishments: 6x Pro Bowl selection (2000-2004, 2007); 5x 1st Team All-Pro (2000-2002, 2004, 2007); 1,000 receptions club; 15,000 receiving yards club; 150 receiving touchdowns club

Pros: Owens made 1,078 receptions (sixth most in history) for 15,934 receiving yards (second most) and 153 touchdowns (third most). During the length of his career, only Marvin Harrison caught more passes and only Randy Moss caught as many touchdowns (Moss caught exactly 153 touchdowns in two fewer seasons than Owens; by the by, how good was Randy Moss?). And he finished in top ten in receptions three times, receiving yards five times and receiving touchdowns ten times. With numbers that impressive, what could you possibly say to discredit his hall of fame candidacy?

Cons: Beyond the fact that wide receiver is in a dreadful quagmire with hall voters, Owens has a well-deserved reputation for being, well, insufferable. Like when he implied that Jeff Garcia was gay for no reason. Or when burned the entire city of Philadelphia to the ground before they told him to go away. Or when he cried saying that Tony Romo was his quarterback and proceeded to do nothing but complain about Tony Romo for the remainder of his stay in Dallas. Or the other dumb things he said/did.

Point blank, while the Pro Football Hall of Fame has no character clause like the Baseball Hall of Fame's much-maligned one, being a dick while playing at a high level still causes problems in getting inducted. Charles Haley was talented enough to go in on his first ballot in 2005. He just got inducted this year. Because he was an insane dick. It took Michael Irvin three tries. Point is, T.O.'s often self-aggrandizing, shitty behavior wore on people, which may hurt him.

Overall: Owens is of hall-of-fame caliber. Problem is, his past indiscretions (and it should be noted he was never arrested and committed no crimes, he's just a douche) plus competition from Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt and Marvin Harrison will probably dilute his chances of going in this year. Or maybe they won't. The Hall's weird. I mean, Warren Sapp went in on his first ballot. So who knows? Maybe T.O. will go in too.

HoF Projection: Pretty Good

Chad Pennington (QB)
2000-2007 New York Jets, 2008-2010 Miami Dolphins

Accomplishments: *Ahem* (looks back and forth awkwardly)

Pros: Pennington was better than you probably remember. He was surprisingly accurate, posting a career completion percentage of 66.1. Of all quarterbacks that have thrown at least 2,400 passes, only Drew Brees has a higher completion percentage in NFL history. And he was a steady hand for teams that were fairly successful.

Cons: Pennington didn't have the biggest arm and was often injured. He played a full season just twice. He only threw 64 interceptions, but against just 104 touchdowns. His career high in passing yards was 3,653. Mind you, this was in an era where quarterbacks routinely threw for over 4,000 yards. And going back to his lack of arm strength, I don't know how many throws weren't just easy screens or dump-off passes that bumped up his accuracy numbers (and I don't have a subscription to Pro Football Focus, so I have no way to verify that).

Overall: Pennington wasn't an embarrassment and should be happy with how his career went. When he was healthy, he had some borderline Pro Bowl caliber seasons (particularly his 2002 and 2008 seasons). But as far as his hall of fame candidacy goes? It's nonexistent. Though he is probably the third-best quarterback in Jets history. So there's that.

HoF Projection: Not This Year

Clinton Portis (RB)
2002-2003 Denver Broncos, 2004-2010 Washington Redskins

Accomplishments: 2x Pro Bowl selection (2003, 2008); AP Offensive Rookie of the Year (2002); 75 rushing touchdown club

Pros: What an underrated career. Portis rushed for over 1,300 yards five times in his career and had double-digit touchdowns three times. From his rookie season to his final Pro Bowl selection, only LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for more yards and only Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander rushed for more touchdowns than Portis. Only John Riggins tops Portis' numbers in Washington Redskins history.

Cons: Sadly, injuries derailed Portis' career. He played only 13 games in his final two seasons and only played nine seasons overall.

Overall: Had he remained healthy and played another two or three seasons, who knows, maybe Portis would've put up hall-of-fame-like numbers. He definitely would've topped 10,000 yards, which would've done something. But as it is, Portis doesn't have a great shot at making it. Which is a shame, because his talent was undeniable.

HoF Projection: Not This Year

Trevor Pryce (DE/DT)
1997-2005 Denver Broncos, 2006-2010 Baltimore Ravens, 2010 New York Jets

Accomplishments: 4x Pro Bowl selection (1999-2002); 1st Team All-Pro (1999); 2x Super Bowl champion (1997-1998)

Pros: Pryce was a reliable stopgap on the Broncos' defensive line. The team was in the top ten in points allowed per game five times in Pryce's stay with the team. Individually, Pryce recorded at least 8.5 sacks six times in his career, including three seasons where he notched double-digit sacks (he recorded 25 sacks between 1999 and 2000).

Cons: Pryce's numbers don't really leap off the page; he didn't reach the 100-sack milestone which really bolsters most players' chances for induction. This is a problem whenever defensive players come up, as they don't have easily contextualized stats to look at when deciding their hall-of-fame fates.

Overall: Pryce was a pretty underrated D-lineman, but I don't know if he had a big-enough profile or sexy-enough stats that will distinguish him from any other D-lineman. Of his nine seasons as a primary starter, five of his teams were in the top ten in points allowed, including the league-leading 2006 Baltimore Ravens. So he undeniably could help a team be great. But I don't think that will put him over the top.

HoF Projection: Not This Year

Antwaan Randle El (WR)
2002-2005, 2010 Pittsburgh Steelers, 2006-2009 Washington Redskins

Accomplishments: Super Bowl champion (2005)

Pros: Randle El was an okay receiver, but he is notable for one reason. He played quarterback at Indiana and was occasionally used as a passer in games throughout his career (he attempted 27 passes in his career, completing 22 of them). Randle El has the distinction of being the only Steeler to throw a touchdown pass in Super Bowl XL. Which is great for him, but that's just another caveat to point out how God-awful Ben Roethlisberger played in that game.

Cons: Just about everything else.

Overall: He was a good third or fourth option in the passing game, but as far as hall of fame consideration goes, it's not going to happen.

HoF Projection: Not This Year

Darren Sharper (S)
1997-2004 Green Bay Packers, 2005-2008 Minnesota Vikings, 2009-2010 New Orleans Saints

Accomplishments: 5x Pro Bowl selection (2000, 2002, 2005, 2007, 2009); 2x 1st Team All Pro (2000, 2009); Super Bowl champion (2009); 60 interceptions club; 10,000 interception return yards club; 10 interception return touchdowns club

Pros: Sharper is tied for seventh all-time with 63 interceptions. He returned 11 of those picks for touchdowns, the second-most ever (tied with Charles Woodson, who is also great). He had a long, productive career as one of the best safeties of his era.

Cons: Shaper's a serial rapist. And that's not even accusation- he was convicted! He'll spend nine years in prison. Which is about 35 to 40 years too short given the sheer amount of evidence, but still, nearly a decade behind bars for a truly heinous crime. Think of any knock you could possibly have against his game and it pales, justifiably by the way, compared to this.

Overall: I mentioned earlier that there's no official character clause for the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but even still, how many voters are going to die on the serial rapist hill and cast a ballot for Sharper? Honestly, if Sharper makes it in one day or never does, I won't bat an eye either way. On his game alone, he belongs in; still, I'll be very surprised if he ever goes in. But he does have a very special corner of Hell all to his own.

HoF Projection: Not This Year

Fred Taylor (RB)
1998-2008 Jacksonville Jaguars, 2009-2010 New England Patriots

Accomplishments: Pro Bowl selection (2007); 11,000 rushing yards club

Pros: Taylor was a pretty underrated running back, quietly rushing for 11,695 yards in his career (currently the 15th-most in history). He had seven 1,000+ yards seasons, going over 1,200 six times. He gained 4.5 more yards per attempt eight times. And he's probably the best skill position player in the history of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Cons: Taylor had some pretty stiff competition from other running backs. Marshall Faulk, Ladainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, Clinton Portis, and Tiki Barber all put up similar or superior numbers than he did. Taylor was in the top 10 in rushing yards six times, but never in the top five. And he only scored double-digit touchdowns twice.

Overall: While Taylor was great, he'll probably have a hard time getting inducted. He got lost in the crowd with other great running backs, especially after the Jaguars slid into mediocrity for much of the 2000s. As such, I don't think he goes in, but maybe he'll get more support later.

HoF Projection: Slim Chance

Mike Vrabel (LB)
1997-2000 Pittsburgh Steelers, 2001-2008 New England Patriots, 2009-2010 Kansas City Chiefs

Accomplishments: Pro Bowl selection (2007); 1st Team All-Pro (2007); 3x Super Bowl champion (2001, 2003-2004)

Pros: Vrabel was a key member of the great Patriots teams of the 2000s.

Cons: Like many other Patriots of this era, Vrabel didn't distinguish himself individually. He was a great piece of the greater puzzle, but as a player he was just kind of there.

Overall: See above.

HoF Projection: Not This Year

Brian Westbrook (RB)
2002-2008 Philadelphia Eagles, 2009-2010 San Francisco 49ers

Accomplishments: 2x Pro Bowl selection (2004, 2007); 1st Team All-Pro (2007)

Pros: Westbrook compares very well to Roger Craig; he was an all-purpose back that gained more than 1,200 yards from scrimmage in five-straight seasons, including a league-leading 2,104 in 2007. He scored double-digit total touchdowns four times in six seasons. And for a lot of his time with the Eagles (in which they went to four NFC Championship Games and one Super Bowl) he was probably their best receiver in addition to being their primary running back.

Cons: Westbrook played only nine seasons and was a primary starter for just seven. And the comparison to Roger Craig also may work against him, since Craig has received little support for his own induction. Westbrook only rushed for 1,000 yards or more twice, and because he was a running back voters will still likely hold that against him.

Overall: Westbrook was a 2000s equivalent of Roger Craig. Unfortunately, Craig has gone under-appreciated by voters, so Westbrook will likely go the same route. The hall hasn't put in dual-threat running backs unless they were great in traditional terms and happened to put up good receiving marks as a compliment to their ground games (see Walter Payton, Marshall Faulk, and, very likely in 2017, Ladainian Tomlinson). So it doesn't look good for Westbrook's chances.

HoF Projection: Slim Chance

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Stats found on pro-football-reference.com.