It's almost time for baseball, which means it is time for me to offer predictions on how the season will go, and most of which will prove that I don't know my ass from a hole in the ground. Let's get to it.
AL East
1. Toronto Blue Jays*
2. Boston Red Sox*
3. New York Yankees
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles
A lot of predictions I've read are high on the Red Sox. For sure, Boston is going to be better than they've been the last two years (they almost have to be), but I'm still high on the Blue Jays.
The Yankees are expected to finish fourth or worse. So I think they'll finish third, because they're the Yankees and, even though they're a mediocre team filled with old dudes, they somehow manage to squirm their way in the playoff conversation when they have no right to.
The Rays, on paper, are a better team than the Yankees, and I'm just picking them to finish fourth more so due to the Yankees than because I think the Rays will bad. I don't think they'll be in the playoff conversation this year, but I think they're set up well for a 2017 return to form.
Finally, there's the Orioles, who are hilariously one-dimensional. This is a team that will depend entirely on dingers to stay afloat. They'll win some games with that mindset, but the required 85-90+ to make the playoffs? I don't think so.
AL Central
1. Kansas City Royals*
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Detroit Tigers
5. Chicago White Sox
Personally, I think the AL Central is the weakest division in the majors. It's got the Royals and not much else. Why, yes I do think the defending world champions will make the playoffs again. Thanks for asking.
As for the teams that won't make the playoffs, the Indians will be better, probably the imaginary six-seed in the playoffs, the Twins will regress after a nice 2015, and the Tigers are old and not the Yankees, so they'll play like you think they would.
And I'm picking the White Sox to finish in last place because that would be the most hilarious thing to happen after their clusterfuck of a spring training. And one more article on that for good measure because it amuses me so.
AL West
1. Houston Astros*
2. Texas Rangers*
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
4. Seattle Mariners
5. Oakland Athletics
Yeah, I'm all-in on the Astros. I don't think they'll make a lot of hay in the playoffs (that's for next year, apparently), but I definitely think they can win the AL West.
The Rangers are the only other team that can vie for a division title, and I think they'll finish about a game behind the Astros. The Angels have Mike Trout and... okay, just Mike Trout. But that might be enough to secure a third-place finish.
The easiest team to place was the A's, since they're going to be hot garbage and almost-guaranteed to be the worst team in the American League. The Mariners could finish anywhere from third to fifth and I wouldn't be surprised (except maybe fifth, because, again, the A's will be hot garbage).
NL East
1. New York Mets*
2. Washington Nationals*
3. Miami Marlins
4. Philadelphia Phillies
5. Atlanta Braves
Things that are guaranteed: the Mets and Nationals will be in the division title hunt, the Phillies and Braves will each be bad, and the Marlins will be somewhere in the middle.
This is the year where all good things are pointing in the Mets' general direction- they have the best starting rotation in the Majors and they have some competent bats going into opening day for the first time in a while. Meanwhile, the Nationals are still smarting from their epic collapse last year and lost a fair amount of talent in the offseason. So I won't be at all surprised if the Nationals are the ones to win the NL East and the Mets somehow find a way to bow out of the playoffs all together.
But screw pessimism for right now. I'm going with the Mets to win the division with the Nationals the only clear challenge to that throne.
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs*
2. Pittsburgh Pirates*
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Milwaukee Brewers
Yeah, I'm all in on the Cubs, too. That team's going to be incredible, no two ways about it. Unless they aren't, which is also possible. Sports are weird.
The Pirates are expected to regress, but, on paper at least, they don't seem that much better or worse than the Cardinals. I could see either the Pirates or the Cardinals finishing second (I could also see the Cardinals finishing in first, because they're the Cardinals, the Yankees of the National League for a variety of reasons), but I'll go with the Pirates because, eh, fuck the Cardinals, I guess.
The Reds and Brewers have no shot at a playoff berth or even a third-place finish. Neither of those teams will be ready to compete again until near the end of the decade at the earliest. Ever the optimist, I am, I am.
NL West
1. San Francisco Giants*
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. San Diego Padres
5. Colorado Rockies
It's an even-numbered year, so the Giants will be back in the postseason. That's only partially why I chose them as division champions. The other, probably more vital reason, is that the Dodgers got worse through subtraction, while the Diamondbacks got slightly better through addition. I'm speaking of course of Zack Greinke now pitching in the desert while the Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw and not much else.
In spite of that, the Dodgers are still a better team than the Diamondbacks (though the gap is closing between them). The Dodgers' starting rotation is problematic outside of Kershaw, but they're still a good team. The Diamondbacks are also a good team with a bunch of intriguing-to-outright-great offensive players. But I think the Dodgers are still better than the Diamondbacks, so there were are.
Meanwhile, the Padres and Rockies will both be terrible. The bottom two teams in each division in the National League are pretty grim.
***
Now with all that out of the way, how about I jump the gun completely and predict the playoffs? This surely will all be an accurate portrait of the actual playoff picture in six months.
American League
1. Kansas City Royals
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Houston Astros
4. Boston Red Sox
5. Texas Rangers
National League
1. Chicago Cubs
2. New York Mets
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Washington Nationals
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
LCS
ALCS: #1 Royals vs. #2 Blue Jays (Royals over Blue Jays, 4-2)
NLCS: #1 Cubs vs. #2 Mets (Cubs over Mets, 4-3)
The Blue Jays are good enough to make the ALCS, but they don't match up well against the Royals at all. Sure, they'll take a couple games from them, but the Royals have the clear advantage.
And I'm all for rematches in the respective LCS of the previous season's match-up (that hasn't happened in the NL since 2008-2009, in the AL since 2003-2004, and both leagues haven't seen direct rematches since 1977-1978; so what I'm saying is that this probably won't shake out).
The Cubs will probably learn from their sweep at the Mets' hands from 2015 and rebound this year. The Mets have a better starting rotation than the Cubs, but the Cubs most definitely have a better offense than the Mets. And the Cubs are so loaded offensively that even a couple breaks going their way will favor them exceptionally more than the Mets. So a full seven-game NLCS as opposed to a four-game sweep, and with the opposite team winning.
World Series
Royals over Cubs, 4-2
No matter which league has home-field advantage, I think the Royals have the upper-hand over the Cubs. And while it'll be nice to see the Cubs in the Fall Classic for the since the Truman administration, I don't think they'll be getting their first World Series win since the Roosevelt administration (that's Teddy Roosevelt- it's been a while).
The Cubs will be fun to watch, it'll possibly a prelude for potential greatness in the future, but I think the Royals can and will repeat as champions.
***
And that'll do it. We'll kick off MLB's Opening Day with a profile of those defending champion Royals. See you on Sunday.
