Sunday, January 31, 2016

A BRIEF HISTORY OF... THE DENVER BRONCOS... REDUX

With the Broncos headed to the Super Bowl for the second time in three seasons, how about we dust off that article I did on the them a while back and make it better? Cool? Cool.


Starting Up: Bob Howsman owned the minor league baseball team the Denver Bears, and in 1959 expanded Bears Stadium to 34,000 seats in preparation for hosting a team for the upstart Continental League. But as I mentioned in the Mets profile, the Continental League went tits up before it even started.

So Howsman now had a stadium fit for a major league team that didn't have a major league tenant and was too big for a minor league team like the Bears. So how do you fix that mess? Get in the football business apparently.

Howsman lobbied the NFL to bring an expansion team to Denver, but George Halas rejected him. Halas wouldn't let Howsman in the club, so Howsman got some "friends" together and started his own club. This collection of fools wound up forming the American Football League, and the Denver Broncos, Howsman's team, was one of its charter franchises.

So yeah, the Broncos, and by extension an entire professional sports league, was started up because of rich people getting in a dick measuring contest with each other. This should surprise exactly none of you.

Greatest Runs


The Orange Crush Era (1976-1981): The Broncos adopted the 3-4 defense before the 1976 season (where there are three defensive linemen and four linebackers on the field) and laid waste to opposing offenses. Led by players like Lyle Alzado, Randy Gadishar, Tom Jackson and Louis Wright, the Broncos' D secured the team it's first playoff berth, division title and Super Bowl appearance, all in the 1977 season.

Elway Comes to Mile High (1983-1989): John Elway was selected with the number one overall pick in the 1983 NFL draft by the Baltimore Colts. Elway, however, wanted nothing to do with playing in a crappy stadium while on a crappy team owned by an acerbic drunk. So the Colts traded him to the Broncos in exchange for offensive lineman Chris Hinton (who was the Broncos' first round pick that year), backup quarterback Mark Herrmann and a first round pick in the following year's draft.

Elway, to put it mildly, completely justified his first overall selection by leading the Broncos to the playoffs in his rookie season and the following year rocketed the Broncos to their first division title since 1978. To close the 80s out, the team went to three Super Bowls in four years.

The Most Dominant Team in Football (1996-1998): Coach Mike Shanahan took over an extremely talented Broncos team in 1995, and, by the following year, turned the team into one of the best of the decade.

The Broncos won 39 games between 1996 and 1998, the most ever over a three year span. Led by a now much older and savvy John Elway and an historically-dominant running game, the Broncos finally won their first Super Bowl after the 1997 season. Then they did it again the next year.

The 1998 Broncos were one of the best teams of the Super Bowl era, winning a team high 14 games in the regular season and thoroughly dominating its competition in the postseason (the team's smallest margin of victory in their three postseason games was 13, and they outscored their opponents 95-32).

Manning Comes to Mile High (2012-2015): Upon being released by the Indianapolis Colts following the 2011 season, Peyton Manning signed with the Broncos (Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks seem to have a habit of falling into the Broncos' laps by way of the Colts). Manning was coming off of major neck surgery and had missed the entire 2011 season. There was no telling if he'd be as good as once was, or even league average due to the injury.

After the team went 2-3 to start his Broncos career, Manning proceeded to go into beast mode and shattered NFL records while the team has gone 48-11 in the regular season since the first five games of 2012. The Broncos gambled on Manning returning to his pre-injury form and won big time.

Even after Manning's play started to decline, the Broncos completely overhauled their defense to the point where it became one of the best units in the league rather than one of the weakest. Even with Manning more closely resembling an embalmed husk of his former self, the Broncos remain a force of a team thanks to their D.

Leanest Years


The AFL Years And A Bit After As Well (1960-1972): The Broncos were a charter member of the AFL and never caught a break in its ten year history. The Broncos accumulated an appallingly bad 39-97-4 (.287) record during their time in the AFL, far and away the worst record among the original eight AFL teams (the Boston Patriots had the second worst record, but had 24 more wins than the Broncos).

Things didn't improve upon entering the NFL if anything, it got worse because the Broncos flirted with respectability. The Broncos started the 1970 season with a 4-1 record. They finished the year off in last place in the AFC West with a record of 5-8-1. Over the next few seasons, the Broncos were merely bad or mediocre with no other pretensions suggesting otherwise.

The Post Elway Era (1999-2008): This one is kind of cheap, because the Broncos were actually one of the more successful teams in the NFL during this period, give or take a couple of seasons. But it must be mentioned due to the sheer amount of tension that existed in the locker room during the last ten years of Mike Shanahan's stay as head coach.

After John Elway retired, the next ten years in the mile high city consisted of Shanahan finding a quarterback, replacing that quarterback with a new one, then going back to the first one, then the second one, rinse, repeat. As such, just about every Broncos signal caller had a public feud with Shanahan.

Yes the team still won games, but it wasn't nearly as successful as it was in Shanahan's first years as head coach, and that was mainly due to the fact that Shanahan was the oil to the Broncos' quarterback's water.

The Josh McDaniels "Era" (2009-2010): Shanahan was fired after the 2008 season and was replaced with New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Any hope that McDaniels would not bring baggage to Denver were quickly dashed when McDaniels, in a remarkable display of shortsighted hubris, drove starting quarterback Jay Cutler, star receiver Brandon Marshall and running back Peyton Hillis out of town.

However, all the animosity fans may have had towards the Broncos' new coach were quelled when the team started the 2009 season 6-0. The animosity came screaming back when the team collapsed after returning from their bye week and finished the season 8-8 and missed the playoffs, making them just the second team since 1990 to start a season 6-0 and miss the playoffs.

But not to worry! McDaniels had the solution to the team's troubles: Florida quarterback and First Take leg-humping victim Tim Tebow! Despite the addition of DeMaryius Thomas earlier in the first round, the Broncos still struggled (even with Tebow's enviable ability of throwing wildly inaccurate passes). (To be fair, Tebow only started three games that season and the team tanked mostly due to having statically the worst defense in the league that year. Still, Tebow? Really?)

After a 3-9 start to the 2010 season, with a videotaping scandal thrown in for good measure, McDaniels was fired and the Broncos finished the year 4-12. That's the worst record during a full 16 game schedule in team history.

One more indignity cornerback David Bruton is the only player taken by the Broncos in McDaniels' 2009 draft currently on the team's roster. And he's one of just two from that team draft that's currently still in the league. Out of ten. No good.

Names You Should Know


Lionel Taylor: The first truly good Broncos player. Taylor was one of the best receivers in the history of the AFL— his 567 receptions were the most in the history of the league. Taylor was the first player in pro-football history to catch at least 100 passes in a single-season. While a 100+ reception season isn't that big of a deal now (at least one player has caught 100 or more passes every season since 1990 except one), Taylor and the Oilers' Charley Hennigan were the only two receivers to accomplish this feat until Art Monk did it in 1984.

All in all, Taylor led the AFL in receptions five times in six seasons, in spite of the Broncos' quarterbacks being astoundingly bad, even by the standards of the era. He had six seasons where he caught at least 70 receptions, twice as many as the second-place guy at the time of his retirement (Steve Largent was the only other player to have at least six such seasons in the first twenty years after 1968). He went to three AFL All-Star Games and was named 1st Team All-Pro four times— all with the Broncos.

Floyd Little: The Franchise! Little was drafted by the Broncos in the 1967 Common Draft between the NFL and AFL. Little immediately made an impact by being named as a team captain during his rookie season. When he retired, his 6,323 rushing yards, while unimpressive today, was the seventh-most ever gained by a running back to that point.

It must be stated that Little was a huge deal for the Broncos, as he was the team's first real star, giving fans a reason to go to games. His number 44 was retired by the club (he was just the second player to receive that honor after inaugural quarterback Frank Tripuka's number 18) and he was inducted to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2010.


Lyle Alzado: One of the best players on Denver's famed Orange Crush Defense. Alzado was one of the greatest defensive linemen of his day. According to his Wikipedia page (I know, I know...), he recorded 112.5 sacks, 24 forced fumbles and nearly 1,000 tackles, all unofficially (those stats weren't officially kept until near the end of Alzado's career or after his retirement). He went to two Pro Bowls and was named 1st Team All-Pro once during his Broncos career.

If you do know about Alzado, it's probably because he was one of the first professional athletes to admit to using anabolic steroids, which he cited as the instigator for the brain cancer that ultimately killed him. He wasn't the only football player to have used steroids during his career, but he'll likely never make the Hall of Fame because of his use of the drugs.

Tom Jackson: Before you ask, yes, as in "ESPN's Tom Jackson." Before he babbled incessantly on television screens, Tom Jackson kicked the shit of people as part of the Broncos' famed Orange Crush defense. Jackson played for a long time and was one of just four players that played for the Broncos in both Super Bowl XII and Super Bowl XXI. All in all, Jackson was very durable, playing in 191 of a possible 207 games (92.3%). No defensive player has played more games for the Broncos than Jackson.


Randy Gradishar: The best linebacker from the Orange Crush era of Broncos teams. Gradishar played ten seasons and went to seven Pro Bowls (do the math) and was selected 1st Team All-Pro twice. He was one of the most respected linebackers of his day (if his Wikipedia page is to be believed; that's a LONG legacy section) and is one of the best eligible players that isn't in the Hall of Fame. There's no way I did him justice with this blurb. Seriously, look him up.


Louis Wright: Another Orange Crush Bronco. Wright was an early version of what today is known as a shutdown corner, basically making life hell on the passing game that went his way. He was routinely mentioned as one of the best cornerbacks in the league at the time, along with Mel Blount and Mike Haynes. Wright's claim was knocking passes down, which unfortunately for him, wasn't officially recorded as a statistic by the NFL at the time, which is probably the thing that's kept him out of the Hall of Fame. He is in the Broncos' Ring of Fame, but he probably deserves to be in Canton as well.


Rick Upchurch: The greatest return man of his day. Upchurch led the league in punt return touchdowns three times and his eight career total was tied for first all-time when he retired in 1983. He led the league in punt return yards once and punt return yards per game three times. He also went to four Pro Bowls and was thrice selected 1st Team All-Pro. All in all, a fantastic career.


Dan Reeves: The Broncos' coach from 1981 to 1992, and the one who crafted them into one of the most consistently good teams in the league. The Broncos under Reeves won five division titles and earned six playoff appearances while posting double-digit wins seven times and just two losing records. Reeves guided the Broncos to three Super Bowls in four years in 1986, 1987 and 1989, although the Broncos were usually handled in embarrassing fashion in the Big Game. Reeves coached uninterrupted  from 1981 until 2003, and currently ranks ninth all-time in coaching wins with 190.


John Elway: THE Denver Bronco. Elway spent his entire 16-year career with the Broncos after orchestrating his way out of Baltimore as detailed above. In that time, he cemented himself as one of the best quarterbacks in football history and is still in the top ten in most relevant quarterback records.

Elway suffered terrible defeats in his first three Super Bowls and often played terribly on the biggest stage. However, his career ended in Cinderella fashion when the Broncos won back-to-back Super Bowls from 1997 to 1998. Elway was named MVP of Super Bowl XXXIII, the final meaningful game of his career (he played in the 1999 Pro Bowl a week later).

His number 7 was retired by the team and he was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2004. And now he's the president of the whole damn team! It's good to be John Elway.


Karl Mecklenburg: Arguably the best defensive player during the Elway era. Mecklenburg was the AFC's equivalent of Mike Singletary he was an absolute beast that tackled everyone in sight and picked his teeth with the bones of orphans. I can't confirm that last one, though.

Mecklenburg also compiled 79 sacks, the most ever recorded by an inside linebacker since the sack became an official statistic in 1982. He was selected to six Pro Bowls (second-most of any linebacker in team history behind only Randy Gradishar) and was 1st Team All-Pro three times (the most of any Broncos linebacker).


Shannon Sharpe: When he retired, Shannon Sharpe was, at least from a statistical standpoint, the greatest tight end in football history. Then Tony Gonzalez went and obliterated all of his records. Such is life for a pro athlete.

But that shouldn't diminish what an amazing career he had. He retired as the Broncos' all-time receptions leader (which is pretty freaking remarkable for a tight end). He was the first tight end to record at least 10 seasons with at least 50 receptions (he had 11 such seasons Antonio Gates, Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez are the only other ones to do so). Sharpe is also tied with Lionel Taylor for the most 1st Team All-Pro selections in Broncos history with four. He was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2011.


Mike Shanahan: The winningest coach in Broncos history with 138 wins. Shanahan feuded with just about every quarterback he ever coached either publicly (Bubby Brister, Brian Griese, Jake Plummer, and most recently Robert Griffin III in Washington), or privately (Elway). Another quirk of his was a seemingly innate ability to be able to turn late-round or undrafted running backs into 1,000 yard rushers (most famously and effectively with Terrell Davis). Despite his control freak tenancies, Shanahan is one of only six coaches to win back-to-back Super Bowls and has the twelfth-most wins for a coach in football history with 170 (tied with Tom Coughlin, at the moment).


Terrell Davis: He only played seven seasons, but he's one of the best running backs in NFL history. Davis was scary dominant from 1996 to 1998. He won an MVP, two Offensive Player of the Year awards, a Super Bowl MVP, and rushed for 5,296 yards and 49 touchdowns. The Broncos offense went through TD, and without him, I doubt very much that those Broncos teams could've made those Super Bowls, let alone win them.

His career was tragically cut short when he destroyed his knee making a routine tackle in 1999, and he only had four seasons of spectacular play. Despite this, he's been finalist for the Pro Football Hall of Fame just about every year of his eligibility and will likely go in at some point. Rightfully so.


Rod Smith: The Broncos' most visible receiver in the post-Elway era. Smith was one of the better receivers in the league during his career, placing fourth, fifth and seventh in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns from 1995 to 2006. He went to three Pro Bowls in his twelve year career, all with the Broncos. If you think of a wide receiver in the 2000s, he'll probably come up at some point.


Champ Bailey: A cornerstone in the Broncos' secondary for a decade and an almost-guaranteed future-Hall-of-Famer. Bailey was traded to the Broncos from the Washington Redskins after the 2003 season and preceded to have some of the best seasons of his career.

All three of his 1st Team All-Pro selections came in his first three seasons with the Broncos and he intercepted 21 passes in that span. His twelve Pro Bowl selections are the most ever for a cornerback and he is one of just 39 players to have intercepted 50 or more passes in his career (he swiped 52 pass attempts when it was all said and done).

Five Current Guys You Should Know


DeMaryius Thomas: The Broncos' first selection in the 2010 draft, and probably their best receiver. Thomas didn't really make a peep in the NFL until the 2011 playoffs, when he caught the game winning touchdown in the Broncos' overtime home victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. While sadly making people forget that Tim Tebow was a terrible quarterback, the play showed how talented a receiver Thomas truly is.

With the arrival of Peyton Manning the following season, Thomas' career really began to flourish. Since 2012, only the Steelers' Antonio Brown has more receptions and receiving yards, and Thomas is one of only four players to haul in at least 41 touchdowns. He's the only receiver in the last four years to record totals of at least 400 receptions, 4,000 receiving yards and 40 touchdowns. Plus, he's gone to three Pro Bowls.


Von Miller: The second overall pick in the 2011 draft, Miller has steamrolled his way into opposing quarterbacks ever since. He has 60 sacks in his first five seasons just the sixth player in history to have that many in so little a time (and only the third linebacker to do so). Miller also has the rare distinction for being selected to a Pro Bowl in his rookie season while also being named the 2011 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Miller has recorded double-digit sacks every season of his career except one (his 2013 season, in which he only played nine games due to a drug suspension and an ACL tear, respectively). He's been selected to four Pro Bowls and two 1st Team All-Pro lists. And since he's been one of the most disruptive defensive players in the game for a while now, he'll likely keep piling up impressive accomplishments over the next decade.


Peyton Manning: Arguably the greatest quarterback in football history. Manning's 2013 season was one of the greatest single-season performances for a quarterback in history. He threw for 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns, both NFL records. In just his Broncos career alone, he has thrown 140 touchdowns to just 53 interceptions, and 17,112 yards.

Manning is likely to retire after the Super Bowl (even if he doesn't, he's probably not coming back to the Broncos). It's for the best, since he'll be 40 in March and this past season was the worst of his career (not counting his 2011 season, in which he didn't play at all due to a neck injury). Still, if he does go off into that good night, he leaves behind a career where he threw for more yards and touchdowns than any player in history, won five MVPs (also a record) and won (at least as of this writing) one Super Bowl and went to four total. That's a Hall-of-Fame resume, to put it mildly.


Derek Wolfe: Another strong player on a dominant Broncos defense. Wolfe has 17 sacks and 144 total tackles through his first four seasons, to go along with four batted passes. While his numbers don't leap off the page, Wolfe clears up room for the other pass rushers to wreak havoc. And the team really likes what he can do, as evidenced by the fact that they just locked him up through the rest of the decade.


DeMarcus Ware: One of the best pass rushers of the last decade. While Ware isn't as dominant as he was while playing for the Cowboys (in which he had 117 sacks, nearly 600 total tackles and forced 32 fumbles while being named 1st Team All-Pro four times in five years), he's still pretty good. He's made the Pro Bowl in each of his two seasons in Denver, and has recorded 17.5 sacks. Plus he's going to his first Super Bowl. It's good to be DeMarcus Ware.

Stats found on pro-football-reference.com.

Sunday, January 3, 2016

2016 BASEBALL HALL OF FAME FIRST BALLOT GUYS

The Baseball Hall of Fame will name its 2016 class on Wednesday. In lieu of going over everyone on the ballot (I did that a few years ago, and many of the players covered there are still on the ballot), here are some of the people eligible for induction for the first time. Away we go!

Garret Anderson (LF)
1994-2008 California/Anaheim/Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 2009 Atlanta Braves, 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers

Accomplishments: 3x All-Star (2002-2003, 2005); 2x Silver Slugger winner (2002-2003); World Series champion (2002)

Quick Profile: Among the best players in the history of the Angels organization. He finished fourth in the MVP voting in 2002, the same year the Angels won their one and only World Series. Anderson had some good power, averaging about 28 home runs from 1999 to 2003. For his career, he hit nearly 300 home runs and over 500 doubles. He didn't strike out much, only getting fanned more than 90 times twice. His career line of .293/.324/.461 isn't bad, either.

Will He Make It On First Ballot?: No. Anderson's numbers don't pop compared to others on the ballot, and his peek as a pro was too short and unsubstantial, comparatively speaking as well. He was a really good player and among the best in Angels history, but that won't cut it against some of his more notable peers like Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell, and some other first timers.

Overall Hall of Fame Probability: Slim Chance

Brad Ausmus (C)
1993-1996 San Diego Padres, 1996, 1999-2000 Detroit Tigers, 1997-1998, 2001-2008 Houston Astros, 2009-2010 Los Angeles Dodgers

Accomplishments: All Star (1999); 3x Gold Glove winner (2001-2002, 2006)

Quick Profile: A light-hitting, defensive catcher and current Tigers skipper.

Will He Make It On First Ballot?: No, and this will likely be his one year on the ballot. Comparing Ausmus to other catchers of his era is fruitless, as he's outclassed by Mike Piazza, and also Ivan Rodriguez and Jorge Posada (who will each be on the ballot next year). Putting him in a pool of all kinds of players makes him really stick out as a one-and-done guy.

Hall of Fame Probability: Nope

Luis Castillo (2B)
1996-2005 Florida Marlins, 2006-2007 Minnesota Twins, 2007-2010 New York Mets

Accomplishments: 3x All Star (2002-2003, 2005); 3x Gold Glove winner (2003-2005); World Series champion (1997, 2003)

Quick Profile: One of the better players in the history of the Florida/Miami Marlins. While power-deficient, Castillo was still a pretty good hitter for a second baseman, hitting .290 for his career and rarely striking out (he only struck out 32 times in 2005, in one of his best seasons overall). He was pretty speedy as well, swiping 370 bases in his career, leading MLB in 2000 and 2002. And he wasn't too shabby of a defender, either.

Will He Make It On First Ballot?: No. Like Anderson above, Castillo is one of the better players in the history of a team and had a pretty good career overall. I hate the term "hall of very good" because it's a patronizing, condescending, and mean-spirited term to label a player with. With that said, Castillo fits that label more than for the actual Hall of Fame.

Hall of Fame Probability: Nope

Jim Edmonds (CF)
1993-1999 California/Anaheim Angels, 2000-2007 St. Louis Cardinals, 2008 San Diego Padres, 2008 Chicago Cubs, 2010 Milwaukee Brewers, 2010 Cincinnati Reds

Accomplishments: 4x All Star (1995, 2000, 2003, 2005); 8x Gold Glove winner (1997-1998, 2000-2005); Silver Slugger winner (2004); World Series champion (2006)

Quick Profile: A longtime player with some great power (393 home runs, .527 slugging percentage), good hands (an eight-time Gold Glove winner), and great value (from 1995 to 2005, the only players to accumulate more WAR were Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez).

Will He Make It On First Ballot?: Probably not. The ballot's pretty crowded. With that said, I think he'll remain on the ballot, and hopefully he'll make it in someday when the logjam in the hall is lessened.

Hall of Fame Probability: Maybe

Troy Glaus (3B)
1998-2004 Anaheim Angels, 2005 Arizona Diamondbacks, 2006-2007 Toronto Blue Jays, 2008-2009 St. Louis Cardinals, 2010 Atlanta Braves

Accomplishments: 4x All Star (2000-2001, 2003, 2006); World Series MVP (2002); 2x Silver Slugger winner (2000-2001); World Series champion (2002)

Quick Profile: Another member of that 2002 Angels World Series team. Glaus had a lot of power, hitting more than 250 home runs in nine seasons, and leading the AL in 2000.

Will He Make It On First Ballot?: No. Glaus' power dried up after 2006, and he had a relatively short career at 13 seasons. He also wasn't a particularly good defender. While he was on a potential Hall of Fame track through his first five seasons, he leveled off and was never as good after 2002, though he showed promise in 2005 and 2006. Honestly, this will probably be his one year on the ballot.

Hall of Fame Probability: Nope

Ken Griffey, Jr. (CF)
1989-1999, 2009-2010 Seattle Mariners, 2000-2008 Cincinnati Reds, 2008 Chicago White Sox

Accomplishments: 13x All Star (1990-2000, 2004, 2007); AL MVP (1997); 10x Gold Glove winner (1990-1999); 7x Silver Slugger winner (1991, 1993-1994, 1996-1999); 600 home run club

Quick Profile: Jeez, what a player! One of the very few stars of the 90s without the taint of PEDs on his reputation. Griffey led the AL in home runs four times in six seasons from 1994 to 1999, and currently ranks sixth all-time with 630. He's among the most proficient offensive players in history and among the biggest stars the game has ever seen, while also being the best player in the history of the Seattle Mariners.

Will He Make It On First Ballot?: Yes, yes, and more yes. While Griffey never played in a World Series, his numbers are undeniable and are impressive even compared to the nutty offensive numbers of the era in which he played. He's the shoe-in candidate on the ballot this year.

Hall of Fame Probability: Slam Dunk

Mike Hampton (P)
1993 Seattle Mariners, 1994-1999, 2009 Houston Astros, 2000 New York Mets, 2001-2002 Colorado Rockies, 2003-2005, 2008 Atlanta Braves, 2010 Arizona Diamondbacks

Accomplishments: 2x All Star (1999, 2001); NLCS MVP (2000); Gold Glove winner (2003); 5x Silver Slugger winner (1999-2003)

Quick Profile: A solid pitcher for a lot of solid teams.

Will He Make It On First Ballot?: No. Solid doesn't get you into the Hall of Fame.

Hall of Fame Probability: Nope

Trevor Hoffman (RP)
1993 Florida Marlins, 1993-2008 San Diego Padres, 2009-2010 Milwaukee Brewers

Accomplishments: 7x All Star (1998-2000, 2002, 2006-2007, 2009); 2x Hoffman/Rolaids Award winner (1998, 2006)

Quick Profile: Among the most revered and famous closers in history. Hoffman accumulated 601 career saves, second only to the great Mariano Rivera. As far as other in-game stats go, he was damn near unhitable with one of the lowest WHIPs and Hits Per Nine Innings ever. His career 2.87 ERA isn't bad, either. But fame may be his greatest asset; he's probably best known for coming out to AC/DC's Hell's Bells, which always sent the local San Diego crowds into a frenzy.

Will He Make It On First Ballot?: He's got a pretty good shot. Relievers are weird, as some of them get tons of support and others wane even if their numbers are similar. There's one guy down this list whose numbers are comparable, if not superior, to Hoffman's, but he won't get in. Hoffman, though, has the saves and fame to likely make it in, if not this year some time in the next decade.

Hall of Fame Probability: Maybe

Jason Kendall (C)
1996-2004 Pittsburgh Pirates, 2005-2007 Oakland Athletics, 2007 Chicago Cubs, 2008-2009 Milwaukee Brewers, 2010 Kansas City Royals

Accomplishments: 3x All Star (1996, 1998, 2000)

Quick Profile: One of the better multi-time All Star catchers of the last thirty years you've likely never heard of. That's partially thanks to the fact that he spent most of his career on the historically shitty post-Barry Bonds Pirates teams. But Kendall was an above average hitter for a catcher, owning a career line of .288/.366/.378 (note the lack of power, though). He was also surprisingly agile, especially in his early career, swiping 189 bases, including 22 or more from 1998 to 2000.

Will He Make It On First Ballot?: No. It'll be a moral victory if he gets even one percent of the vote.

Hall of Fame Probability: Slim Chance

Mike Lowell (3B)
1998 New York Yankees, 1999-2005 Florida Marlins, 2006-2010 Boston Red Sox

Accomplishments: 4x All Star (2002-2004, 2007); World Series MVP (2007); Gold Glove winner (2005); Silver Slugger winner (2003); World Series champion (1998, 2003, 2007)

Quick Profile: A pretty good third baseman with decent power and okay defense. He also beat cancer, which is pretty cool.

Will He Make It On First Ballot?: No. He was an important player on two World Series-winning teams, but he didn't put up the numbers necessary for induction.

Hall of Fame Probability: Nope

Billy Wagner (RP)
1995-2003 Houston Astros, 2004-2005 Philadelphia Phillies, 2006-2009 New York Mets, 2009 Boston Red Sox, 2010 Atlanta Braves

Accomplishments: 7x All Star (1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007-2008, 2010); Hoffman/Rolaids Award winner (1999)

Quick Profile: A criminally-underrated reliever with some gaudy numbers, including a 2.31 ERA, a 0.998 WHIP, and striking out 11.9 batters per nine innings.

Will He Make It On First Ballot?: Probably not, as best illustrated by this Joe Posnanski article (near the bottom, though you should read the whole thing). To summarize, while Wagner's overall numbers are better than Trevor Hoffman's, he didn't have the sexy relief pitcher numbers (namely saves) that Hoffman had. Wagner had 422 saves, good for fifth-best all-time, but it's not 601 saves. So he'll likely get overlooked. Best case scenario, he'll get the minimum five percent of the vote to keep himself on the ballot for at least another year. Maybe by then, Hoffman, or other competing pitchers, will be off so voters can take a better look at him.

Hall of Fame Probability: Slim Chance

Randy Winn (OF)
1998-2002 Tampa Bay Devil Rays, 2003-2005 Seattle Mariners, 2005-2009 San Francisco Giants, 2010 New York Yankees, 2010 St. Louis Cardinals

Accomplishments: All Star (2002)

Quick Profile: A decent hitter with okay power and above average speed.

Will He Make It On First Ballot?: No.

Hall of Fame Probability: Nope

All stats taken from baseball-reference.com.