Saturday, September 28, 2013

NFL WEEK 4 PREDICTIONS

Another week, another set of predictions. On we go!

(Before we start, two teams have their bye weeks this time around. No Panthers or Packers this week.)

1. Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

Thoughts: The Bills aren't good against the run and aren't good when faced with a tough defense. Not a good combo this week.

Pick: Ravens

2. Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Thoughts: Round one in the annual battle for Ohio! The Browns did well against the Vikings last week, but the Bengals are a much better team. Even though the Browns' defense is really good, their offense will have ups and downs for the rest of the season.

Pick: Bengals

3. Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Thoughts: No Nate Burleson for the Lions for the rest of the year. The Bears also boast the toughest defense Detroit has faced to this point. I think 4-0 is a perfectly reasonable expectation for Chicago.

Pick: Bears

4. Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans

Thoughts: Seattle is the best team in football right now. Matt Schaub's going to have a long day tomorrow.

Pick: Seahawks

5. Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Thoughts: I predicted that the Jaguars would finish the season at 3-13 and I think I may have overrated them. If they win one game this year, it should be cause for celebration.

Pick: Colts

6. New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs

Thoughts: Scary game. The Giants have played beyond horrible this year and will be without most of their usual starting offensive linemen tomorrow. The Chiefs meanwhile have the look of a very balanced, good team and are at home to boot. It's too early for trap games, right? Ah, the hell with it: I'm going with the home team.

Pick: Chiefs (By the way, if this prediction holds true, it'll be the first time the Giants started a season at least 0-4 since 1987.)

7. Pittsburghe Steelers "at" Minnesota Vikinges

Thoughts: Merry old England gets to watch two win-less teams. That's what they'd call "rubbish" I'm sure. Matt Cassel gets the start for the Vikings due to Christian Ponder suffering from bad ribs and worse aim. If Cassel learned anything from last year's time with the Chiefs, then the Vikings have this in the bag.

Pick: Vikings (Speaking of bad starts, if this prediction holds true, it'll be the first time the Steelers started 0-4 since 1968 (!). Holy crap!)

8. Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thoughts: Mike Glennon makes his first NFL start for a Bucs team that may not have Vincent Jackson or Mike Williams. Greg Schiano sure is an awesome coach. Even if both receivers do play, I still think Arizona has its way with them.

Pick: Cardinals

9. Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos

Thoughts: I have zero thoughts on this game. Except for my prediction.

Pick: Broncos

10. Washington Redskins at Oakland Raiders

Thoughts: Tough call. The Redskins' defense is terrible, but RG3 has played progressively better since the season started. If Terrell Pryor can't play, then Matt Flynn will be the Raiders' quarterback, and in every game I've seen Flynn play he looked like a perfectly acceptable quarterback. You know what, I'll go with Washington.

Pick: Redskins

11. Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers

Thoughts: Another toss up, but I'll go with the home team.

Pick: Chargers

12. New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

Thoughts: Man, the late games don't have a lot of "obvious" winners. Again, I'll go with the home team. If the Titans win, I'll have already predicted their final standings wrong (I picked them to go 2-14, dumb move in hindsight).

Pick: Titans

13. New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons

Thoughts: It's official: no Gronk or Amendola for the Patriots. The Falcons also boast the best offense the Pats have gone up against this year and are at home. First Patriots loss of the season.

Pick: Falcons

14. Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints

Thoughts: 3-0 against 3-0. Unfortunately, the Dolphins are playing the Saints in the Super Dome, which most likely means this isn't going to end well for them.

Pick: Saints

I picked a lot of road teams this week (eight road to seven home), so this could either go very well or very poorly for me. My fingers will be crossed all day.

Thursday, September 26, 2013

NFL WEEK 4 THURSDAY GAME PREDICTION

Week 3 netted me another 11-5 prediction record, which puts me at 31-17 on the year.

Tonight's game really gives me pause (the San Francisco 49ers at the St. Louis Rams for those wondering). On the one hand, the 49ers haven't played well in the last couple weeks and had just four days to prepare for a tough road game against a division rival. The Rams also went 1-0-1 against the 49ers last year and both clubs aren't remarkably different compared to their 2012 counterparts.

The Rams have also had their fair share of problems, with their defense not playing perhaps to their potential and the offensive line not being good despite the acquisition of Jake Long in the offseason.

This game is a tossup and usually that would mean I'd go with the home team. But I'm going to buck that mindset and pick the 49ers. They're still extremely talented despite their struggles and I think they can pull off their first win against the Rams since 2011.

By the by: I've picked the road team in every Thursday game this year to this point. I'm 1-2 in those instances, so we'll see if the 49ers can put me at 500 tonight.

Saturday, September 21, 2013

NFL WEEK 3 PREDICTIONS

The Chiefs made me look like a genius, so let's see how the rest of the league will treat me in the next couple days.

1. Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

Thoughts: Ed Reed's first game as a Texan will be against his former team. But the main factor that will determine who wins this game will be the health of Ray Rice. If Rice plays, the Ravens will win. If he can't, the Ravens lose. I think he'll play.

Pick: Ravens

2. New York Giants at Carolina Panthers

Thoughts: The Panthers better hope for a blowout because close games aren't exactly their forte under Ron Rivera. They're an appalling 2-14 in games decided by seven or fewer points since 2011. Even though the Giants look anything like a competent football team right now, I still like their chances against the Panthers.

Pick: Giants

3. Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals

Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers is so distressingly good. The Packers don't even have to throw their defense out there and they'd still win because Rodgers makes it all seem so easy.

Pick: Packers

4. St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys

Thoughts: This is a tough call. On the one hand, the Cowboys have a great deal of talent, especially on offense. On the other hand, they're incredibly flaky. I think they'll just eek out a victory against a good, scrappy Rams team. This will probably be the most fun game in the early slate.

Pick: Cowboys

5. Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings

Thoughts: No Brandon Weeden (injured, won't play) and no Trent Richardson (on a better team) makes this Browns team go crazy. In the bad way.

Pick: Vikings

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots

Thoughts: This game petrifies me, because New England should beat the Bucs. Should. But wouldn't it be so typical that for one week the Bucs figure themselves out and beat a team they have no right in beating? I'm still taking New England. Fingers crossed.

Pick: Patriots

7. Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints

Thoughts: Almost never bet against the Saints in the Super Dome.

Pick: Saints

8. San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans

Thoughts: I know it's early in the season and making assumptions about teams now is beyond reckless. But it still bothers me that I can't get a good read on either of these teams. I'll go with Tennessee just because their defense is pretty good and physical. (In hindsight, my 2-14 prediction for them might have been a bit of an overreaction).

Pick: Titans

9. Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins

Thoughts: This could be a pick-em game, which I never would have guessed before the season. The Falcons won't have Steven Jackson, their offensive line and defense are not good and the forecast calls for rain. Advantage, home team.

Pick: Dolphins

10. Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Thoughts: Speaking of games that terrify me. Again, the way this game swings will depend on one specific player: Geno Smith. If he doesn't have many turnovers, the Jets will win. If he has another fourth quarter performance like he had against the Patriots, the Jets will lose. I go with home teams for the most part in pick-ems; I hope that doesn't come back to bite me.

Pick: Jets

11. Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers

Thoughts: When I was looking over the schedule, I'm ashamed to admit that I completely forgot that this will be the first time Andrew Luck squares off against his former college coach Jim Harbaugh. Even though I think the Trent Richardson deal will help the Colts in the long run, it's not going to do much this week. The Falcons-Dolphins game or this one will likely be the best game in the afternoon.

Pick: 49ers

12. Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks

Thoughts: Never bet against the Seahawks at home.

Pick: Seahawks

13. Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins

Thoughts: Robert Griffin III hasn't played well this season (to steal a line from the Onion, it's almost like he's coming back from a debilitating knee injury). The Redskins defense hasn't played well this season. This should be an easy win for the Lions, but if ever there was a team that could shoot itself in the foot better than the Lions, I'd like to see it.

Pick: Redskins

14. Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers

Thoughts: I know I said the Steelers suck last week, but it's still weird to see them... well, suck. Not that I'm complaining this week.

Pick: Bears

15. Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

Thoughts: Do I really have to justify picking the Broncos in this one?

Pick: Broncos

And there you have it. Here's hoping for another double-digit correct pick count this week.

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

NFL WEEK 3 THURSDAY GAME PREDICTION

I was 11-5 for week 2 in the NFL as a whole. That puts me at 20-12 for the year so far. Let's see if I can ride that momentum further.

For tomorrow's game, I'll take the Kansas City Chiefs to beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Andy Reid's homecoming. Usually with Thursday games, the home team wins more times than not. In this instance I think the Eagles won't be able to do a whole lot. The Chiefs are a very balanced team, and the Eagles defense is horrible. Philadelphia's defense was also exhausted in their loss to the Chargers, and a short week isn't going to do them any favors especially against the Chiefs' offense.

Saturday, September 14, 2013

NFL WEEK TWO PREDICTIONS

With the Jets loss two nights ago, I'm now 9-8 on the young year (most teams don't win games when they throw three interceptions in the fourth quarter no matter how good their defense plays, just saying).

But on to the near future. There are fifteen more games to played this week. Here are my predictions and brief thoughts on them.

1. St. Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons

Thoughts: The Falcons' first game in the Georgia Dome this year. Even though the Rams' defense is better overall than the Saints', I can't believe the Falcons' offense will be as lackadaisical at home than they were at the Super Dome (which is always a tough place to play). I'm going with the home field advantage.

Pick: Falcons

2. Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

Thoughts: I would assume the Broncos loss will light a fire under the Ravens and they play better in their second game than they did in their first. The Browns have some good pieces, but I think taking on the Ravens in Baltimore will be a bit much for them.

Pick: Ravens

3. Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills

Thoughts: The Panthers' defense is better than the Patriots' (I could say that about most teams, but the Panthers are really good) and I think that will be the deciding factor. The Bills' run game will likely be a non-factor again so E.J. Manuel will have to really step up his game if the Bills want to go 1-1. It's not impossible, but I think it's pretty improbable.

Pick: Panthers

4. Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Thoughts: I checked up on how Christian Ponder has done against the Bears in four previous tries against them. The result: middling to out right bad. I expect that trend to continue even if the Bears are going to be concentrating mostly on Adrian Peterson all day.

Pick: Bears

5. Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers

Thoughts: The Packers are in a bad mood after losing to the 49ers last week, which probably doesn't bode well for Washington. I wouldn't want to be Robert Griffin III tomorrow.

Pick: Packers

6. Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Thoughts: The Titans reamed the Steelers, but the Texans are not the Steelers. This week's outcome will look very different for the former Oilers.

Pick: Texans

7. Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

Thoughts: This one might be an either/or kind of game, and in those instances I'll almost always go with the home team. This will probably be one of the more fun early games this week.

Pick: Colts

8. Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs

Thoughts: I don't know if the Chiefs' performance last week was due entirely on how bad the Jaguars are (the Jaguars ARE really that bad), or if they are legitimately improved. This might be a pick 'em as well. Again, I'll go with the home team because if I've learned anything in the last five years, it's don't trust the Cowboys.

Pick: Chiefs

9. San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles

Thoughts: The Chargers have a 1:00 PM Est Kickoff (10:00 AM Pac) against a team that's coming off an impressive win (or at the very least, an impressive first half). I don't like the Bolts' chances.

Pick: Eagles

10. Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

Thoughts: The Lions' D-line will likely have its way with the Cardinals' O-line. That's going to turn the game in the Lions favor, but this will likely be the most fun game in the late afternoon.

Pick: Lions

11. Denver Broncos at New York Giants

Thoughts: The Broncos are heading east which normally is bad news, but Peyton Manning has never broken a sweat against the Giants before and likely won't this time either. If my prediction holds true, this will be the first 0-2 start the Giants have gotten off to since 2007 (don't bring up the fact they won the Super Bowl that year, this isn't even the 2011 team).

Pick: Broncos

12. Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders

Thoughts: If you're a Jaguars fan, I'm sorry.

Pick: Raiders

13. New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thoughts: The Saints are on the road which is usually death for them, but with the Bucs doing their best Jets impression lately, I think that will be the difference.

Pick: Saints

14. San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Thoughts: Always go with Seattle at home.

Pick: Seahawks

15. Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Thoughts: The Steelers suck. It might be a little early to throw that out, but if you're a team coming off a bad loss, I don't know another team you'd like to go against more than the Steelers. Except maybe the Jaguars or Raiders, but they're both sharing a drink they call loneliness this week (but it's better than drinking alone).

Pick: Bengals

And that'll do it. Enjoy the games if you choose to watch them.

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

NFL WEEK ONE RESULTS, WEEK TWO THURSDAY PREDICTION

I forgot to put this up before the season, but I actually made predictions for week one in the NFL. I might as well put this up now even if it is late. And just to prove that I'm on the level here, I went 9-7 on the week. Here were my predictions and the outcome of those choices.

Ravens over Broncos (X)
Patriots over Bills (O)
Seahawks over Panthers (O)
Bears over Bengals (O)
Browns over Dolphins (X)
Vikings over Lions (X)
Colts over Raiders (O)
Chiefs over Jaguars (O)
Saints over Falcons (O)
Buccaneers over Jets (X)
Steelers over Titans (X)
49ers over Packers (O)
Rams over Cardinals (O)
Giants over Cowboys (X)
Redskins over Eagles (X)
Texans over Chargers (O)

As for week two, I'm not going to give my predictions in full until Saturday just so I can check for last minute changes as far as who's playing or not. But as for tomorrow's game, I'll actually be bold and pick the Jets over the Patriots in Foxborough. The Jets' defense is going to give Tom Brady trouble and if there's anything to ensure a victory over the Patriots, it's pressuring Tom Brady, which this defense can do. And no, I don't have consistent faith in anyone on that team who's name is not Tom Brady or Bill Belichick.

Thursday, September 5, 2013

NFL PREDICTIONS

It's ridiculous to predict the outcome of sports seasons because there are so many unknown variables to have to look out for. You don't know who will have a breakout year, who will have a disappointing year, who will get hurt. So who knows what's going to happen in the NFL this year.

Here are my thoughts on what will happen in the NFL this year.

*indicates playoff team

AFC East
1. New England Patriots (11-5)*
2. Miami Dolphins (7-9)
3. New York Jets (4-12)
4. Buffalo Bills (3-13)

AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)*
2. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)*
3. Cleveland Browns (7-9)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-10)

AFC South
1. Houston Texans (11-5)*
2. Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)
4. Tennessee Titans (2-14)

AFC West
1. Denver Broncos (12-4)*
2. Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)*
3. San Diego Chargers (7-9)
4. Oakland Raiders (3-13)

NFC East
1. Washington Redskins (11-5)*
2. New York Giants (10-6)*
3. Philadelphia Eagles (7-9)
4. Dallas Cowboys (4-12)

NFC North
1. Minnesota Vikings (11-5)*
2. Chicago Bears (10-6)
3. Green Bay Packers (10-6)
4. Detroit Lions (5-11)

NFC South
1. Atlanta Falcons (12-4)*
2. New Orleans Saints (9-7)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
4. Carolina Panthers (5-11)

NFC West
1. Seattle Seahawks (13-3)*
2. San Francisco 49ers (12-4)*
3. St. Louis Rams (8-8)
4. Arizona Cardinals (7-9)

Championship Games
AFC: Denver Broncos over Baltimore Ravens
NFC: Seattle Seahawks over Atlanta Falcons

Super Bowl XLVIII
Seattle Seahawks over Denver Broncos