AS IT TURNS OUT, WINNING GAME ONE REALLY HELPS

The 2013 baseball season is over and the Boston Red Sox have won their third championship since 2004. The Red Sox won game one, which as it turns out, historically speaking, greatly helped them in winning their eighth overall championship.

I hinted that I'd explore the success rate of winning the first game in the World Series waaaaaay back in July. Well here it is.

There have been 109 World Series and, obviously, 109 teams won the first game of their respective series. 69 of those teams went on to win the championship, a success rate of 63.3%. So yeah, bullet points for future World Series teams- you should probably win game one. (I could write the "Keys to the Game" blurbs for Fox with that kind of analysis).

Now obviously, it's not paramount that you win game one. After all, one game in a (usually) seven game series is a drop in the hat. A team can dig itself out of a one game hole. Hell, the first World Series champions in 1903 (fittingly, the Red Sox, then the Boston Americans) lost game one and came back to win.

But what happens if a team puts up a two game lead to start off a World Series? 52 teams in World Series history have opened the series by winning the first two games. 41 of those 52 teams ended up winning the whole thing, giving 2-0 teams a staggering 78.8% success rate in the Fall Classic.

The more consecutive wins a team piles on, the greater the chance that team will be hoisting a Commissioner's trophy come series' end. A 1-0 lead works a bit better than 2/5 of the time. A 2-0 lead works a bit less than 4/5 of the time. No team has ever overcome a 3-0 deficit in the World Series. (It's happened once in a seven game series, by the Red Sox in the 2004 ALCS. The Red Sox are having all the fun in this article.)

So how about some firsts and other interesting things? I mentioned earlier that the 1903 Americans were the first team to overcome a one game deficit and win the World Series. The 1905 New York Giants were the first team to win the World Series after winning game one.

The 1907 Chicago Cubs were the first team to start a series 2-0 and win the whole thing. Well, technically. Game one of the 1907 World Series ended in a tie (and yes, way back in the day, World Series games could end in ties), but the Cubs went on to win games two and three (they technically swept the series 4-0 in five games). The 1908 Cubs were the real first team to put up a 2-0 lead and win (in the first two games, no ties).

The first team to overcome a 2-0 deficit and win the World Series were the 1921 New York Giants, storming back to beat those pesky Yankees (although at that point in history, I guess the Giants were the asshole team from New York that always won pennants (six in the World Series era to that point) while the Yankees had just won their first).

Oddly enough, the Yankees have a really annoying habit of coming back from 2-0 deficits to win championships. They've done it four times (!), in 1956, 1958, 1978 and 1996.

These 2013 Red Sox are the latest team to win game one and the championship. The 2012 San Francisco Giants were the last team to put up a 2-0 lead in their eventual sweep of the Tigers. The 2009 Yankees were the last team to overcome a 1-0 deficit and win. The aforementioned 1996 Yankees were the last one to overcome a 2-0 deficit.

So there you go. It feels weird writing an actual article for this blog and not football predictions. I hope it was interesting. Now I need to sleep so the monster in my chest can take a damn dirt nap.

NFL WEEK 9 THURSDAY GAME PREDICTION

Okay, and without further ado, we return to my more in depth picks. But first, the stats through Week 8.

Week 8 Record: 10-3 (.769)
Total Record: 78-41 (.655)

Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins

Thoughts: This year's slate of NFL Network games hasn't been a kind to the road team (or television viewers). The Bengals' awesome defense is going up against the Dolphins' piss poor offensive line. Do you remember when Wile E. Coyote would get crushed by something and he'd walk around, bouncing up and down like an accordion? That's probably what Ryan Tannehill's going to look like after this game. Not helping matters is that second year right tackle Jonathan Martin has apparently "gone AWOL." The line wasn't good with him. Imagine how bad it will be if he doesn't play. The Dolphins' are in total free fall after a strong start. The Bengals keep rising.

Prediction: Bengals

NFL WEEK 8 PREDICTIONS

Alright, this week, with all my major work done for the most part, I was going to return to my more in-depth (for me) analysis for the game picks. Then, as luck would have it, I got sick for the first time in about eight months. So this post, which I planned on writing and posting yesterday when I got home, I'm now writing and posting about four hours before the start times for the early games. I'm truly sorry for this, and hopefully I'll be fine in time for the Thursday prediction (I may also have another post about the World Series, but don't hold me to that).

Anyway, on with the predictions.

Total Record: 69-38 (0.645)
Byes: Ravens, Bears, Texans, Colts, Chargers, Titans

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions
San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals
New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals
Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos
Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams

NFL WEEK 8 THURSDAY GAME PREDICTION

Week 7 Record: 9-6 (.600)
Total Record: 68-38 (0.642)
Prediction Tonight: Panthers over Buccaneers

NFL WEEK 7 PREDICTIONS

My Total Record: 60-32
Byes: Saints, Raiders

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers
Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions
San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots at New York Jets
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins
Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants

NFL WEEK 7 THURSDAY GAME PREDICTION

Week 6 Record: 8-7 (.533)
Total Record: 59-32 (.648)
Prediction Tonight: Seahawks over Cardinals

NFL WEEK 6 PREDICTIONS

This week's article is going to be rather quick as college work is starting to pile up. Sorry about that, but unfortunately, it happens.

Current Record: 52-25 (.675)
Byes: Falcons, Dolphins
***my prediction is in bold.

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills
Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
St. Louis Rams at Houston Texans
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers

NFL WEEK 6 THURSDAY GAME PREDICTION

I am now 51-25 on the year through week 5 of the NFL. Very briefly, here are my thoughts on the Giants/Bears game: the Bears will win because the Giants suck in a myriad of ways. And with one exception, the Bears have played very well this season. Sorry it's short, but sometimes, there's just not a lot I can say about a game.

NFL WEEK 5 PREDICTIONS

I'll be completely honest, I was going through Thursday night fatigue before the Buffalo/Cleveland game. Every game on the NFL Network to that point had been either incredibly dull or sloppy or an unholy combination of both. So I was expecting more of the same this past Thursday. ...And the Browns and Bills played probably the best game I've seen this year so far. Couldn't have come at a better time.

Anyway, on with the predictions.

Byes: Vikings, Steelers, Buccaneers, Redskins

1. New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears

Thoughts: The Bears being at home will likely tilt this in Chicago's favor. The Saints are never quite as potent on the road and the Bears' defense, despite last week's hiccup, will slow down Drew Brees enough to secure a win.

Pick: Bears

2. New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

Thoughts: Tricky game. Andy Dalton has been below average and the run game got stuffed last week. New England is inexplicably winning games that they shouldn't be (you say this Bill Belichick person is a good coach, eh?). Cincinnati's been pretty good against the run, so the LeGarrette Blount show will probably be preempted this week, which means more Tom Brady throwing to random guys. It'll be close, but I'll go with the home team.

Pick: Bengals

3. Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

Thoughts: The Lions haven't won at Lambeau Field since the Bush administration (the first one, in case you were wondering). The Packers are coming off of a bye and thus, should be healthier. Even though the Packers have seemed to take a step back this year, I don't think It'll really matter this week.

Pick: Packers

4. Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts

Thoughts: This should be fun. Seattle is one of the best teams in the NFL, but they aren't the same on the road as they are at home. Indy meanwhile has played great this year here, there, and everywhere. I'll be bold and go with the upset.

Pick: Colts

5. Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

Thoughts: Both teams are coming off bad losses (is there such a thing as a good loss?). Baltimore (and by Baltimore, I mean Joe Flacco) has really struggled on offense this year, but their defense has looked improved over last season's squad. Tannehill has been sacked 18 times (!) and has a fumbling problem but like the Ravens, Miami's defense has played very well this year. Another tough call, so I'll go with the home team again.

Pick: Dolphins

6. Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Thoughts: Geez, who gives a damn? The Eagles' defense is God-awful and the Giants aren't anything to write home about to put it nicely. Once again, home field advantage will probably be the deciding factor.

Pick: Giants

7. Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams

Thoughts: Will Justin Blackmon's return from his suspension be the deciding factor in a Jaguars win? No. No it will not.

Pick: Rams

8. Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans

Thoughts: Now here's an intriguing match-up. Alex Smith is coming off of probably his worst game since the last time he faced the Giants, but hasn't thrown interceptions this year except for the aforementioned Giants game. The Titans meanwhile, are without Jake Locker for the time being and will start Ryan Fitzpatrick in his stead. Fitzpatrick has had stretches of good play in his career, but he's rarely, if ever, been consistently good through a long stretch. With both teams fielding great defenses, I think Fitzpatrick's skills (or lack thereof) will be the key.

Pick: Chiefs

9. Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals

Thoughts: The Cardinals had to fight to win against the Buccaneers last week. Let's just say that Arizona wasn't exactly going up against Tampa's 2002 team, so how will they handle the Panthers? Carolina's coming off of a bye and before that, an absolute dismantling of the Giants. But I'm not sure what played more of a factor. The Panthers playing well, or the Giants being horrible. Coin flip = home team prediction.

Pick: Cardinals

10. Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys

Thoughts: Von Miller still hasn't come back from his suspension. The Broncos lead the league in points scored and total offense. Peyton Manning is doing his best Brett Favre on the 2009 Vikings impression. Imagine what this team will look like when Miller can play. Oh, and the NFC East is the worst division in football by leaps and bounds.

Pick: Broncos

11. Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers

Thoughts: Matt Schaub is actively holding the Texans back with his crappy play, but those in charge of the organization love him. I'm worried that Schaub will play great and screw up my prediction, but come on, it's the 49ers. Matt Schaub against the 49ers' defense < Colin Kaepernick against the Texans' defense.

Pick: 49ers

12. San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders

Thoughts: A bonus prime time game on the NFL Network thanks to the Oakland Athletics making the MLB playoffs. This puppy has an 11:35 PM EST kickoff. You couldn't pay me to watch this game.

Pick: Chargers

13. New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons

Thoughts: The Falcons could stop the Patriots' offense and it was the freaking Patriots' offense. Luckily, they're facing an interception prone rookie this week.

Pick: Falcons

That'll do it. Now I'll spend the rest of the day screwing around on the internet.

NFL WEEK 5 THURSDAY GAME PREDICTION

There was a point at the half of the early games on Sunday where I would have been 4-5 if they had ended at that moment. But most of my original hunches paid off and I ended going up 6-3 through the one o'clock games and went 11-4 overall for week 4. I'm 42-21 on the year so far due to genuine smart picking and quite a bit of luck, but I'll take it.

For this Thursday's game, I'll go with the Browns over the Bills. Beyond the fact that the Browns are at home, they also have a very good defense and despite my trepidation, Brian Hoyer has played pretty well in his first two games. The Bills have a lot of good pieces and are also coming off a big win, but they're still not good against the run (which likely won't matter this week anyway) and E.J. Manuel is going to go through growing pains. Against that defense, I think he'll have a rough night. Same for the combination of C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson.