Thursday, September 10, 2015

A BRIEF HISTORY OF... THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Football is back tonight, and to celebrate, let's take a look at the history of the reigning champions: the New England Patriots.



Starting Up: We briefly went over the development of the American Football League when I profiled the Denver Broncos. All you need to know here is that the eight-team league had only seven teams set on November 15, 1959. The following day, Billy Sullivan, a newspaper man who also had ties to the oil industry, was awarded the eighth and final team for the startup league, after paying a whopping $25,000 entry fee.

Sullivan's road to pro-football ownership was similar to inaugural Broncos owner Bob Howsman's path, though Sullivan inadvertently left more bodies in his wake.

Sullivan tried to get a meeting with the NFL about putting a team in Boston. Then-commissioner Bert Bell said he'd get Sullivan a meeting. Then Bell died before the meeting could take place. Undeterred, Sullivan then requested a meeting with then-New York Giants owner Tim Mara. Then Mara died.

Admittedly, that's a great story, but there's no way it can be true. Bell died in October 1959; Mara had been dead since February that year. Every story I found repeated the same thing Sullivan requested a meeting, Bell died, Sullivan requested another meeting, Mara died— but that obviously can't be true, at least not in that order (unless Sullivan was really dumb and didn't realize one of the most influential owners in the NFL had been dead for eight months).

What definitely happened was that the NFL decided to pass on Boston for an expansion team. In the prior 40 years, the NFL had put at least three teams in Boston at different points, and all of them either relocated or folded outright. So the owners of the late 50s weren't exactly keen on putting a team in a city which historically, they felt, couldn't sustain a team.

After the NFL's rejection and the death of anyone at all sympathetic to his cause, Sullivan went to the upstart AFL, which obviously accepted him. The name "Patriots" was chosen through a fan contest. And their original Pat the Patriot logo was drawn up in under an hour. Here it is if you're curious:




The Patriots had the distinction of playing in the very first AFL game ever. They were the first home team in an AFL game and lost to the Denver Broncos 13-10. The Patriots were obviously accepted into the NFL in time for the 1970 season, along with the other nine AFL teams, and were placed in the AFC East Division where they've been ever since.

One final note In 1971, the team changed its name to the New England Patriots due to moving into Foxborough Stadium full time. Since they weren't playing in Boston proper anymore and were close to the Rhode Island boarder, the team decided to rebrand themselves as the entire New England region's team (after unsuccessfully trying to become the Bay State Patriots, which the NFL rejected, presumably, because Bay State Patriots is a really shitty name). To date, the Patriots are the only team in the four major sports that has a geographic region in its name and not a proper city (though the Hartford Whalers were the New England Whalers when they played in the WHA, but dropped it upon admission into the NHL in 1979).

Greatest Runs


One of the Better AFL Teams (1961-1966): After a rocky first season-and-a-half, the Patriots became a pretty good team under head coach Mike Holovak. After going 2-3 under Lou Saban in 1961, Holovak coached the Patriots to a 7-1-1 record the rest of the way, good for a 9-4-1 record and second place in the Eastern Division.

The Patriots in this stretch only finished lower than second once (in 1965, their only losing season during this time). They even made the playoffs in 1963, defeating the Buffalo Bills in a tiebreaker game (they each finished with identical 7-6-1 records) to reach the AFL Championship game against the San Diego Chargers (the Patriots got smashed 51-10).

The Patriots' winning percentage of 61.8 in these five seasons was second-best in the Eastern Division behind the Buffalo Bills, and third-best in the AFL as a whole. They were a good team that pushed for the playoffs far more often than they didn't, which is nothing to sneeze at, especially considering most of the team's later struggles.

Sustained Success (1976-1988): Obviously the big moment in this chunk is that the Patriots improbably made it to Super Bowl XX after the 1985 season. They even beat their much more heavily favored division rival, the Miami Dolphins, in the AFC Championship Game. It was also the Patriots' first win in Miami since 1970. Of course, considering their 46-10 thrashing by the Bears was the most lopsided loss in the Super Bowl to that point, maybe they don't want to remember that.

In this 13 season span, the Patriots went to the playoffs five times, won two division titles and had just one losing season. Plus they won 113 games, as many as the Steelers in that stretch and behind only the Broncos, Dolphins and Raiders in the AFC.

The Bill Parcells/Bill Belichick Era (1994-Present): Even though these are non-consecutive coaching stints, I'm lumping them together since Belichick was on Parcells' staff in 1996.

The Patriots have been one of the most successful teams in the NFL over the last 20 years. They've gone to seven Super Bowls and won four. They were the first team to win three Super Bowls in three years by winning in 2002, 2004 and 2005. And it all started with the hiring of Parcells, whom actually developed a sense of accountability and stability in his four years on the job.

While Parcells developed that culture, Belichick expanded it and perfected it. Since Belichick took over as head coach, the Patriots have won 175 games, by far the most in the NFL since 2000 (by comparison, the Colts are second with 160 wins in that same span). Granted, there have been numerous accusations of cheating, but you don't win 175 games through skulduggery alone.

Leanest Years


Kicked Around in Both Leagues (1967-1975): The final years in the AFL weren't pretty for the Patriots. The team had gotten older and lost its luster. Holovak was fired after the 1968 season and the Patriots could only muster 11 wins in their final three AFL seasons.

Things didn't improve upon going to the NFL. They finished with a 2-12 record in 1970, the worst record in the league and the worst mark in Patriots history to that point. The Pats drafted USC quarterback Jim Plunkett with the number one overall pick in the 1971 NFL Draft. But after a somewhat-promising rookie year, Plunkett shit the bed hard, throwing 71 interceptions to just 43 touchdowns in his next four seasons.

In the six seasons following the AFL-NFL merger, the Patriots mustered a pitiful 26-58 record. Only the Saints had a worse winning percentage. When a team is comparable in any way to the 70s Saints, that's no good.

A Complete Disaster (1989-1993): The Patriots fell hard in the late 80s, thanks to a series of poor investments on the part of the Sullivan family. Did you know that Michael Jackson greatly impacted the fortunes of Patriots? You do now!

Billy Sullivan's son Chuck was the heir apparent to the football team in the mid-80s, but in 1984 he also had a job as the promoter of Michael Jackson's Victory Tour. It was a big deal, because it was being promoted as the final tour Jackson would go on with his brothers, whom he had found initial success with as a child as part of the Jackson 5.

Well things didn't go well. Chuck Sullivan routinely made an ass out of himself and butted heads with Jackson non-stop. When Sullivan was finally fired by Jackson and replaced with boxing promoter Don King, Sullivan had somehow lost over $22 million, roughly the family's net worth at the time.

Not helped by this was that Sullivan used the stadium (named Sullivan Stadium at the time) as collateral during the promotion. So after the fuck up with the Jackson family, the Sullivan family was in a financial hole and so was the damn stadium.

Even with the Super Bowl berth in 1985, the Patriots' financial picture was grim. Billy Sullivan finally was forced to sell the team in 1988 to Remington Products CEO Victor Kiam for $84 million.

Oh yeah! What about the team? Well, thanks to the above mentioned financial difficulties, it wasn't doing too well. By Sullivan's last year as principal owner, he need a $4 million dollar loan from the NFL just so he could actually pay his players. By 1989, everything went to shit and the Patriots finished 5-11, their worst record since 1981.

But as bad as 1989 was, 1990 would be much, much worse. Amid a horrid season where they finished with the worst record in team history, 1-15, the team embroiled itself in a sexual harassment scandal. Boston Herald reporter Lisa Olsen was treated to naked players viciously demanding she eat their dicks, while also making lewd gestures in her face in the locker room. Kiam, ever the diplomat, dismissed these actions since Olsen was being, to use his words, a "classic bitch."

Naturally, this caused a shit storm. The league fined the team $50,000 and induvidually fined Zeke Mowatt, Michael Timpson and Robert Perryman various respective sums. But the team's biggest punishment was in the form of a lawsuit brought on by Olsen, which was eventually settled for $250,000.

A year later, Kiam himself was in financial difficulties and sold the team to St. Louis businessman James Orthwein, a relative of the massively-rich Busch family. Orthwein's most notable action in his two seasons owning the Patriots was trying and failing to move the team to St. Louis.

In all, with the team going through three embarrassing ownership groups in less than six years and being terrible on the field, the Patriots went a league worst 19-61 from 1989 to 1993.

Pete Carroll's Wild Ride (1997-1999): I know this is technically in the 1994-Present era I said is so awesome, but the three seasons between Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick were a progressive shift downward for the franchise after coming off their Super Bowl XXXI loss. Bill Parcells left the team after Robert Kraft refused to grant him any control over the roster's construction, and his leaving became a very public distraction before the team played in the Super Bowl that year.

To replace the controlling and surly Parcells, Kraft hired then-San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator Pete Carroll. Carroll had been a head coach once before, a one-season stint with the New York Jets where they went 6-10. Carroll fared markedly better in Foxborough, but the Patriots slowly declined under his watch. They went 10-6 and won the AFC East in 1997 and went 1-1 in the playoffs, went 9-7 and one-and-done in the playoffs in 1998, and finally missed the playoffs entirely by going 8-8 and finishing last in the AFC East in 1999. Even worse, the team started 6-2 in 1999 and went 2-6 the rest of the way.

Carroll definitely deserves a bit of blame for how that all unfolded. But the front office also deserves scorn. And if Robert Kraft just let Bill Parcells have a say in the roster's construction, none of this may have happened in the first place. The result was a team slowly getting worse from both bad drafting and curious free agency moves (or non moves in the case of Curtis Martin) (and none of which were Carroll's decisions thanks to Kraft still not letting his head coach have a say in player personnel), and the existing roster getting old or not producing, or both.

Names You Should Know


Larry Eisenhauer: One of the best early players for the Patriots. Eisenhauer was an accomplished defender, being named 1st Team All-Pro in three-straight years. And on a team that was noted for having a bunch of characters on it, Eisenhauer may have been the biggest, and possibly the most insane. He'd bang his head against metal lockers and run out into the snow with just his helmet on.

Eisenhauer only played nine seasons, all for the Patriots and all in the AFL, but he is still one of only 23 players to have made at least four Pro Bowls (or their AFL equivalent) with the Patriots.


Nick Buoniconti: Perhaps the greatest middle linebacker in team history. Buoniconti was a key player on the early 70s Dolphins teams that wreaked havoc on the league and went 17-0 in 1972. But Buoniconti's best seasons were as a Patriot.

Five of his eight Pro Bowl/All Star selections and four of his five 1st Team All-Pro selections came during his time in Boston (and the four All-Pro selections were in a row from 1964 to 1967). While Buoniconti played before defensive stats were reliably kept, his durability shows up well. He played all but seven games as a Patriot, with the seven misses all coming in his last two seasons with the team.

He was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2001.


Jim Nance: NOT the announcer. Nance was, for a brief time, one of the finest running backs in the AFL. He led the league in rushing in consecutive seasons in 1966 and 1967, and also ran in 11 touchdowns in 1966, also a league-high that season. Nance has the distinction of being the only running back in AFL history to post back-to-back 1,000+ yard seasons. Nance is fourth all-time in rushing yards in AFL history with 4,338 yards, and still ranks second all-time in Patriots history with 5,323 yards.


John Hanah: One of the greatest guards in the history of the game. Hannah missed just eight games in his 13-year career. He went to ten Pro Bowls and was named 1st Team All-Pro seven times in a ten-year period from 1976 to his final season in 1985. He has the distinction of being one of the few modern-day guards to be elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility (in 1991, becoming the first Patriots player to be so honored). His number 73 was also retired by the team.


Steve Grogan: Despite never making the Pro Bowl, or frankly being very good, Grogan remains a favorite for Pats fans due to his grit, which many people in the northeast lose their shit over. Grogan was often injured, having numerous surgeries over his 16-year career. Yet he played a lot, specifically in his younger years. Notably, they tried to replace him numerous times, but he always seemed to wriggle his way back onto the field when his replacements couldn't cut it (he played in most of the Patriots' Super Bowl XX loss to the Bears, despite Tony Eason starting the game). So good for you, cagey, old Steve Grogan— you did good.


Mike Haynes: Haynes was one of the premier corners of his era. He started strong, intercepting eight passes in his first season. He won Defensive Rookie of the Year in 1976 and also gained 608 yards on punt returns along with two touchdowns (Haynes was the first Patriots player to ever score a touchdown via punt return). Haynes recorded 28 interceptions and gained 1,159 yards on punt returns in his seven seasons with the Patriots, to go along with six Pro Bowl selections. He was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 1997 and his number 40 was retired by the team.


Andre Tippett: A tremendous and underrated linebacker. Tippett spent his entire 12-year career with the Patriots and earned five-straight Pro Bowl berths from 1984 to 1988 and two 1st Team All-Pro selections in 1985 and 1987. Tippett recorded a stunning 35 sacks in two seasons from 1984 to 1985, a record for linebackers in a two-season stretch. He recorded a clean 100 sacks for his career (a team record), one of only four linebackers to reach triple-digit sacks during the length of his career. And to top it all off, Tippett held a fourth-degree black belt in karate in his playing days (he's since earned a six-degree black belt). He was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2008.


Irving Fryar: The number one overall pick in the 1984 NFL Draft. While Fryar never quite lived up to the expectations foisted upon number one picks, he was a decent enough receiver, catching 363 passes for 38 touchdowns in his nine-year stay with the Patriots. Fryar had many off-field issues, namely drugs, but also infamously had his hand slashed by his pregnant wife during a domestic dispute (he had to miss the AFC Championship Game as a result of the injury). But then he found God and things were fine. Of course, he was recently convicted due to his involvement in a mortgage scam, of which he faces at least 10 years in prison.


Bruce Armstrong: Armstrong played for the Patriots from 1987 to 2000. Given what happened in those years, he must have seen some really fucked up shit in his day. He played his entire career with the Patriots, going to six Pro Bowls in eight years. Immensely durable, Armstrong played a full-16-game schedule in 12 of his 14 seasons, missing only 11 games of a possible 223. No offensive lineman in team history has started more games than Bruce Armstrong. His number 78 was retired by the team.


Ben Coates: A great tight end in his era. During his ten year career, no other tight end caught more touchdown passes (50) than Coates, and only Shannon Sharpe caught more passes and gained more receiving yards. Coates went to five-straight Pro Bowls from 1994 to 1998 and was the 1st Team All-Pro tight end in back-to-back years from 1994 to 1995. Coates is still one of the more prolific tight ends in Patriots history, though unless something goes terribly wrong, all his records will eventually broken by Rob Gronkowski (Gronk has already caught four more touchdown passes than Coates).


Drew Bledsoe: Everyone forgets now, since Bledsoe is most famous today for being usurped by Tom Brady, but Bleadsoe was actually a really, really good quarterback in his prime. He was so good, in fact, that the normally quarterback-conservative Bill Parcells let Bledsoe throw the ball all over Christ creation. From 1994 to 1996, Bledsoe threw 1,950 passes and led the league in pass attempts those three seasons. From his rookie season in 1993 to his final Pro Bowl season with the Patriots (of three) in 1997, he threw 108 touchdowns and for over 18,000 yards.

Now granted, he did turn the ball over a lot— he threw 88 interceptions during that same five-year period, and threw more INTs than TDs three times as a Patriot (leading the league in 1994 with a whopping 27). But compared to the other mountains of wet cardboard passing for quarterbacks the Patriots had used to that point, he was freaking Brett Favre. He just happened to be replaced by Aaron Rodgers.


Ty Law: One of the finest defensive backs in Patriots history. Law went to four Pro Bowls and was twice named 1st Team All-Pro. He's tied with Raymond Clayborn for intercepting the most passes in team history with 36. He tacked on another 17 interceptions after the Patriots cut him before the 2005 season for 53 in his career, the most by a cornerback during the length of his career and second behind only Darren Sharper as far as all defensive backs were concerned. Unlike many cornerbacks, Law was a good tackler, racking up 539 in his Patriots career, the most by a defensive back in team history.


Tedy Bruschi: A cornerstone at middle linebacker for the Patriots for over a decade. Bruschi only made one Pro Bowl in his career and his numbers don't pop off a stat sheet. But Bruschi had those valuable intangibles like leadership and accountability that made the defense into one of the best of the 2000s. Also, he came back from a potentially-debilitating stroke to play for another four seasons and in another Super Bowl, which is pretty damn awesome.


Adam Vinatieri: You could argue that Adam Vinatieri was the most important player for the Patriots when they won three Super Bowls in four years. The Patriots won all three of their Super Bowls in the 2000s by three points obviously, the same number of points a team gets by making a field goal. Their victories in both Super Bowl XXXVI and Super Bowl XXXVIII were effectively walk-offs— with Vinatieri kicking 40+ yard field goals in the final seconds of regulation (and kicking another key fourth-quarter field goal in Super Bowl XXXIX).

While he's obviously most well known for his Super Bowl heroics, Vinatieri was also a damn good kicker. He still is— he was named 1st Team All-Pro this past season, a full decade after his last such nomination (three in all). He's one of the most accurate kickers in pro football history with an 83.7 conversion rate in 571 attempts, trailing only Phil Dawson in highest field goal percentage with at least 400 field goal attempts.


Vince Wilfork: A mountain of a man and, arguably, the best defensive player the Patriots drafted in the last decade plus. Wilfork went to five Pro Bowls in six years and was named 1st Team All-Pro in 2012. His stay with the Patriots, which ended this offseason when he signed with the Houston Texans, was bookended by Super Bowl wins. He was a suffocating defensive presence that wreaked havoc on opposing run games and, occasionally, quarterbacks. If there is any post-2004 defensive player for the Patriots that is worthy of making it into the hall of fame one day, it's Wilfork.

Five Current Guys You Should Know


Bill Belichick: The greatest coach of his generation. Working under Bill Parcells for the better part of 20 years (coaching everything from linebackers, defensive backs and special teams, to being the defensive coordinator for the Giants when they won two Super Bowls in the late-80s and early-90s), Belichick had a mostly forgettable stint as head coach of the Cleveland Browns in the 90s, but completely remade himself as head coach of the Patriots.

Going into his 16th season with the team, the Belichick-coached Patriots have had only one losing season (his first in 2000) and missed the playoffs just three times. He was the first (and to date, only) coach in history to win three Super Bowls in four years.

In all, the Patriots have made it to nine AFC Championship Games, seven Super Bowls and won four under his watch. Including his stay with Cleveland, Belichick has won 211 games, sixth-most in history (and is one of only seven coaches to reach 200 wins). He also has won more playoff games than any other coach in history with 22 under his belt. And he's tied with Chuck Noll for the most Super Bowl wins by a coach in history.


Tom Brady: Let's start off with what every Tom Brady profile starts on— that he was drafted in the sixth round of the 2000 NFL Draft, 199th overall. You can look at his career and wonder how that was possible, but it's very clear he fell that far because he looked like this:



Now not to be rude, but on that day in the summer of 2000, young Tom Brady looked like you. Yes, you reading this right now. Certainly not an NFL-caliber quarterback. But to his credit, Brady eventually put what can only be described as muscle on  his body and everything worked out when Mo Lewis nearly killed Drew Bleadsoe.

It can be argued that Brady benefited a great deal from the Patriots being a genuinely good team in his first few seasons, and to a degree you'd be right. But since 2007, he has unambiguously been one of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the game.

Since he entered a season as the unquestioned starter, Brady has thrown at least twice as many touchdowns as interceptions (the ratio was often far greater than two to one). He's led the league in touchdowns three times and thrown 30+ five times. He has thrown for over 50,000 yards, thrown nearly 400 touchdowns, and has a career completion percentage of 63.5. Factor in his ten Pro Bowls and two 1st Team All-Pro selections and his four Super Bowl wins, and Brady is in the upper echelon of quarterbacks, and Canton bound to boot.


Rob Gronkowski: Gronk! A delightful, exuberant, and occasionally drunken force, Gronkowski has made his presence known quite frequently in NFL games. As discussed earlier, he has already passed Ben Coates' team marks for touchdowns by a tight end with 54, and is on the precipice of shattering Coates' other records as well. Since coming into the league in 2010, only Jimmy Graham has scored more touchdowns or gained more yards than Gronk, and he is fourth in receptions behind Graham, Jason Witten and Greg Olsen. And with three Pro Bowls and two 1st Team All-Pro selections to his name already, Gronk's not going away any time soon. Good. Anyone who does not love Rob Gronkowski is someone I'd rather not know.


Chandler Jones: A fine pass rusher, Jones has recorded 23.5 sacks in his first three seasons, recording 11.5 in 2013. While he hasn't made a Pro Bowl yet, he has been, unquestionably, one of the best defensive players for the Patriots since his arrival in 2012. Sports run in Jones' family— his brother Arthur is a defensive lineman for the Colts, and his other brother is former UFC Light-Heavyweight Champion Jon "Bones" Jones. And he went to Syracuse.


LeGarrette Blount: A fine running back, Blount perfectly represents the Patriots' game plan when it comes to RBs— take a running back that is either mercurial (Blount, Corey Dillon) or undervalued (Stevan Ridley, Kevin Faulk) and put them in a platoon until they stop playing well, then switch them out for another. Blount has been put in such a platoon and can't really be said to be the Patriots' starting running back. But when he is put in the right situation, he has flourished. He's been the Colts' personal kryptonite in the playoffs, rushing for 166 yards and 4 touchdowns against them in the 2013 playoffs, and going for 148 yards and three touchdowns in this past year's AFC Championship Game. So if the Patriots happen to play the Colts in the playoffs, you can bet Blount will get heavy touches in that game.

***

That's it.

Wednesday, September 9, 2015

2015 NFL POSTSEASON PREDICTIONS

With both NFL conference previews done, let's take a look at the potential playoff teams from each conference. Let's start with the AFC. Here are the teams I feel have at least a small shot at the postseason, in alphabetical order:

Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals
Denver Broncos
Indianapolis Colts
Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers

That's nine teams out of 16. So who is likely to make it?

First, let's separate the elite teams from the second-tier teams. The Patriots, Broncos and Colts are all but locks to make the postseason since they're the strongest teams their respective divisions.

That leaves the winner of the AFC North and two wild card spots. The Bengals are probably the most talented team with the fewest question marks of any team in the North. They have a good shot and winning the division, but what hangs me up is that the rest of the conference got tougher.

Going on last  year, there were only seven teams in the AFC in my mind that had playoff-caliber teams. That number increased by two this year, which means the AFC schedule is theoretically more of a pain this year than it was 12 months ago. I don't know how the Bengals will hold up with that.

The Bengals went 8-4 in conference play in 2013 and 7-5 in 2014 (they were 11-5 and 10-5-1 totally, respectively). They have a pretty rough schedule, facing off against improved Raiders and Bills teams, plus going against the NFC West. I think they'll have a winning record, but I don't know if that will translate into a division title, let alone a playoff spot.

While the Ravens also have a tough schedule, I think they'll do a better job in conference play. I'm fully prepared to be wrong on this and have the Bengals and Ravens swap places in the final standings, but for now I'll go with Baltimore as AFC North champions.

That takes care of the division winners. That leaves the Bills, Bengals, Chiefs, Dolphins and Steelers competing for the wild card spots. Unlike when we eliminated the strongest teams above, let's eliminate the teams with the most going against them.

The Steelers' defense will be one of the worst among the playoff contenders, and will likely sink them. Meanwhile, the Bills' quarterback situation is very worrisome and likely sinks them as well. That leaves the Bengals, Chiefs and Dolphins.

The Dolphins don't face the Chiefs or Bengals in 2015 and also benefit from a pretty easy schedule, so they're in. The Chiefs have to travel to Cincinnati to face the Bengals. Even if the Bengals win that game, I still think the Chiefs will get the nod over them, due to the Chiefs also have a slightly easier schedule. So that leaves the Bengals as one of the conference's better teams on the outside looking in.

With all that said, here's what I think the playoff seeding will look like in the AFC:

AFC Playoffs
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. New England Patriots
3. Denver Broncos
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Miami Dolphins


Now to the NFC. Here are the playoff hopefuls in that conference:

Arizona Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
Dallas Cowboys
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans Saints
Philadelphia Eagles
Seattle Seahawks
St. Louis Rams

That's 11 teams. We can pencil in the Packers and Seahawks as division winners without thinking too hard about it. In the NFC East, the Cowboys aren't as talented as the Eagles, but with so much turnover in Philadelphia I think the Cowboys have the advantage.

That leaves the NFC South, the worst division in the league. The Falcons, Panthers and Saints are all flawed teams playing in a flawed division. Whoever doesn't win the division will not be in the playoffs. The Saints' defense is going to be abysmal and the Panthers' offense will likely not be much better. The Falcons have more going for them by comparison. I think Dan Quinn could jury-rig a defense together to complement an offense that will likely be good. So yeah, the Falcons win the division based on being slightly less crap than the other teams.

That leaves the Cardinals, Lions, Vikings, Eagles and Rams as wild card contenders. The Rams are the weakest team in that lineup and I don't like their chances against any of the other teams I just mentioned, so they're out. The Eagles similarly are probably too green (no pun intended) to be anything other than a spoiler for the season. Ten wins should be enough for a playoff spot and I think the Eagles can reach that milestone. But I also think they'll lose on a tiebreaker with another team.

The Cardinals will make the playoffs as they're one of the more balanced teams (so long as Carson Palmer is healthy). That leaves the NFC North rival Lions and Vikings competing for the last spot. Are the Lions the better team than the Vikings? Probably. But as I mentioned in the NFC preview, I don't trust Jim Caldwell to build on his initial success with the team. If anything, I expect the Lions to regress. That leaves the Vikings, a team with a rocket strapped to their collective asses. With a good defense and a good, young quarterback, plus one of the best running backs in the NFL, the Vikings get the nod over the Lions.

Here's how the seeding will look in my mind:

NFC Playoffs
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. Dallas Cowboys
4. Atlanta Falcons
5. Arizona Cardinals
6. Minnesota Vikings


And now, the playoff predictions proper:

Wild Card Round

Broncos over Dolphins

The Broncos at home against a team that hasn't made the playoffs since 2008? I'll take the Broncos, please.

Cowboys over Vikings

The Cowboys are the more experienced team so they have the advantage over the young Vikings. Of course, if any team could screw up a favorable playoff matchup, it's the Cowboys. I'm still going conservative for this prediction.

Chiefs over Ravens

Yeah, I'm going for it. The Chiefs with the road playoff win. That'll probably backfire horribly, but there it is. They have a really, really good defense and I think they can hang with the Ravens.

Cardinals over Falcons

The Cardinals win in a blowout.

Divisional Round

Patriots over Broncos

The Broncos don't play well in Foxborough, especially in January. That'll hold true this year again.

Seahawks over Cowboys

Believe in the home-field advantage for the Seahawks.

Colts over Chiefs

An exact rematch from their nutty playoff game in 2013 season. Same result, perhaps not with the same fireworks as the other game.

Packers over Cardinals

Yeah, I'm really going on a limb with no road teams winning in round two. But still, the Packers in Lambeau in January? Come on.

AFC Conference Championship Game

Colts over Patriots

This is a real tough one, but I'll go with the Colts due to them being at home in my fantasy world. It'll likely be close and really fun, though.

NFC Conference Championship Game

Packers over Seahawks

Another tough call, but the Seahawks aren't as good on the road and the Packers will be itching to beat them after last season's letdown. I think it'll be closer than a lot of people would think, but the end result would still be a Packers win.

Super Bowl 50

Packers over Colts

The Packers are the better team. Aaron Rodgers will probably go Joe-Montana-in-Super-Bowl-XXIV on the Colts' defense.

***

And that's what I think. But it's probably not what's going to happen. Just saying.

Tuesday, September 8, 2015

2015 NFL PREVIEW (NFC)

One conference down, one to go. Let's preview the NFC.



Team: Arizona Cardinals

Division: NFC West

Strengths: The Cardinals defense is still a strong unit and they have some good weapons at receiver as always.

Weaknesses: If Carson Palmer goes down or is ineffective (considering he's going into his age-36 season and coming off a torn ACL, it's highly probable he'll struggle a bit), there's no guarantee the offense won't spiral downward like it did last year. Drew Stanton is the number two, but he played terribly last season before his own season-ending injury, and the newly-acquired Matt Barkley is unproven at the NFL-level.

The Cardinals also boasted the worst running game in the NFL last season, and Chris Johnson as the guy doesn't give me a good feeling about that unit improving much. If this were five years ago, maybe. But now? Not so much.

Overall: Even with all the above-mentioned things working against this team, plus the fact that they play in a tough division with the Seahawks and pesky Rams, I still think this team can make bank. Their schedule outside of the typical NFC West matchups isn't terribly difficult, and they get some worrisome teams at home. All in all, I think the Cards have what it takes to challenge for the division title, but will definitely push for a playoff spot.

Divisional Rank: Second

PLAYOFFS?!: Yes, but only if Palmer can stay healthy and/or they get off to another hot start.



Team: Atlanta Falcons

Division: NFC South

Strengths: If there was any doubt that Matt Ryan is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, the fact that in the last two seasons he completed nearly 67 percent of his passes for 54 touchdowns and more than 9,000 yards, despite the team around him being dreadful, should dispel that argument.

Weaknesses: Both lines are pretty well terrible, with the O-line allowing 75 sacks in the last two seasons, and the D-line unable to generate any kind of pressure. The defense in general is one of the worst in the league thanks to years of bad signings and draftees. Any good players the Falcons had have been dealing with injuries, like to Roddy White and Julio Jones.

Overall: Dan Quinn has much to do to get the Falcons back to their pre-2013 form, but the team benefits from playing in the worst division in the league. If Ryan can be better protected than in years past and his receivers stay healthy, the Falcons might have just enough to make hay in the NFC South, even with a work-in-progress defense.

Divisional Rank: First

PLAYOFFS?!: Yes, they'll benefit from playing in a terrible division.


Team: Carolina Panthers

Division: NFC South

Strengths: The Panthers have one of the best defenses in the league.

Weaknesses: They lost Kelvin Benjamin for the season, a problem since he was one two consistent pass catchers the team had last season. Now the Panthers have Greg Olsen and not much else. Unless Devin Funchess can replicate Benjamin's rookie numbers, the Panthers will be tough to watch on offense (they'll probably be tough to watch regardless).

Overall: The defense may be great, but aside from Cam Newton there are too many holes on offense to make me think the Panthers will be three-time NFC South champions.

Divisional Rank: Second

PLAYOFFS?!: No, they'll probably finish a game behind the Falcons.



Team: Chicago Bears

Division: NFC North

Strengths: The Bears have a general manager who actually has experience in a front office. So that's progress. John Fox is a decent-enough coach. Vic Fangio is probably going to work wonders in rebuilding the defense into something resembling an actual defense.

Weaknesses: Kevin White, who according to reports looked really good in training camp, will miss much of the season with an injury. Bad news, particularly because the offense needs as much help as it can get after last year's anemic unit. Also the defense is still going to be horrendous, at least for another season.

Overall: The Bears, contrary to what USA Today wrote, will NOT be the worst team in the league this season. That doesn't mean they'll be anything close to good, though. They're the weakest team in the division for sure and will likely have a top-ten pick in the 2016 Draft, but they won't be the worst team. Take that for what it's worth.

Divisional Rank: Fourth

PLAYOFFS?!: No.



Team: Dallas Cowboys

Division: NFC East

Strengths: Tony Romo is an underrated quarterback and the offensive line is one of the league's best.

Weaknesses: The best part of last season's team, DeMarco Murray, is now playing for the Cowboys' division rival the Philadelphia Eagles. That means the other running backs still on the roster have to pick up the slack. That's unlikely to happen, so that puts more pressure on Tony Romo, whom historically performs terribly under pressure. And the defense still blows.

Overall: Even with all the weaknesses, there are still a lot of question marks for the other NFC East teams. The Cowboys, by comparison, have clear strengths. This team isn't great, but they might be good enough to win the division.

Divisional Rank: First

PLAYOFFS?!: Yes, surprisingly.


Team: Detroit Lions

Division: NFC North

Strengths: The offense is likely to one of the more potent units in the league, with Matthew Stafford at QB, Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate at WR, and promising-rookie Ameer Abdullah at RB.

Weaknesses: I don't care how hard the team spins this, but losing Ndamukong Suh in free agency is going to hurt the Lions. The defense is still talented, but Suh is an all-world defensive lineman and his presence will be missed. Also, Jim Caldwell-coached teams often fall off after the first season (see post-2009 Colts and post-Super Bowl Ravens).

Overall: The Lions have talent, but I'm not the biggest fan of Jim Caldwell as a coach. While the NFC North isn't as ball-bustingly loaded as the NFC West, I still think it's going to be a pretty tough division. The Lions definitely aren't as good as the Packers, and as for the Vikings, well, see below.

Divisional Rank: Third

PLAYOFFS?!: No, they'll just get edged out.


Team: Green Bay Packers

Division: NFC North

Strengths: They have Aaron Rodgers under center. I could just stop there, but they also have Eddie Lacy in the backfield. That one-two punch will make the Packers perhaps the most formidable offense in the league.

Weaknesses: The defense is still is a cause for concern, but not as much as in years past. The loss of Jordy Nelson for the year might hurt them in some games.

Overall: The Packers are honest-to-God Super Bowl contenders. They'll be competing with the Seahawks once again for the top seed in the playoffs. No matter what happens, the Packers are in position to go deep in the playoffs for the second-straight year.

Divisional Rank: First

PLAYOFFS?!: Yes, easily.



Team: Minnesota Vikings

Division: NFC North

Strengths: Teddy Bridgewater is coming off a decent rookie season and has looked good in the preseason. The Vikings get Adrian Peterson back. The defense looks to be one of the strongest up-and-coming units in the NFL.

Weaknesses: The team is still green and I don't know how well the receiving corps is going to do. There's clear talent with Mike Wallace and Cordarrelle Patterson, but Wallace hasn't shown much of anything since leaving the Steelers and Patterson still has ball-control issues. The offensive line is a bit worrisome as well.

Overall: I really like where the Vikings are headed. This is a team on the rise and I think they'll be a playoff contender sooner rather than later. Soon meaning this year.

Divisional Rank: Second

PLAYOFFS?!: Yes, in a surprise jump from the last couple years.



Team: New Orleans Saints

Division: NFC South

Strengths: Drew Brees. End of discussion.

Weaknesses: Holy God is that defense bad. The Saints will likely hemorrhage points once again this season. And I'm not sure who Drew Brees is going to be throwing to.

Overall: Brees is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but man does this team have holes. The Saints will likely be competitive thanks to Brees, but with a terrible defense and a remade offense, they're not going to sniff the playoffs.

Divisional Rank: Third

PLAYOFFS?!: No, another terrible defense will sink them.



Team: New York Giants

Division: NFC East

Strengths: Tom Coughlin's a really, really good coach. But that's not really a strength anymore.

Weaknesses: For the audience, keeping them awake. God this team is so damn boring.

Overall: This team is the definition of mediocre. They have some good players, but aren't anything special as a whole. They'll win some games, lose far more, and not make the playoffs or come close.

Divisional Rank: Third

PLAYOFFS?!: No. Just stop.


Team: Philadelphia Eagles

Division: NFC East

Strengths: DeMarco Murray is an excellent running back whom gives the Eagles the one-two punch of a consistent running game and taking a consistent running game away from the Cowboys.

Weaknesses: These aren't weaknesses per se, but differences from last season. And there are A LOT of differences. Nate Allen, James Casey, Trent Cole, Bradley Fletcher, Nick Foles, Todd Herremans, Jeremy Maclin, Evan Mathis, Casey Mathews, LeSean McCoy and Carey Williams are all gone. That's three-fourths of their starting secondary, two starting linebackers, the starting running back, a starting receiver, both staring guards, and the starting quarterback.

Foles' replacement is former first-overall-pick Sam Bradford, who when he's played has been pretty good. Unfortunately, Bradford hasn't played in the regular season since October 2013 due to tearing his ACL in back-to-back seasons. There's no telling what he's going to look like, good or bad.

Overall: There are too many unknowns for this team for me to make a definitive statement on them. On paper, they are the most talented team in the division and one of the better teams in the league. In execution, who knows? I wouldn't be surprised if they won the NFC East, but because of the aforementioned questions I'll play it safe.

Divisional Rank: Second

PLAYOFFS?!: No, but just barely.


Team: San Francisco 49ers

Division: NFC West

Strengths: Their offense might still be decent. And NaVarro Bowman is awesome. Um... that's it.

Weaknesses: Here's a list of names the 49ers lost this offseason, in alphabetical order: Chris Borland, Michael Crabtree, Perrish Cox, Chris Culliver, Anthony Davis, Vic Fangio, Jim Harbaugh, Mike Iupati, Frank Gore, Stevie Johnson, Andy Lee, Jonathan Martin, Greg Roman, Aldon Smith, Justin Smith and Patrick Willis.

That's 14 Pro Bowlers, 7 1st Team All-Pro selections, a Coach of the Year winner, and two great coordinators since 2011. To say that the remaining pieces are unproven or shaky is a gross understatement.

Overall: The 49ers lost 13 players which were key contributors last season. Plus their head coach whom got them to the NFC Championship three years in a row and the Super Bowl once. Plus the two coordinators they've had for the last four years. And they still play in a tough division. If the 49ers go 8-8 for a second year in a row, they should be over the moon. As it is, they probably won't go 8-8. Not even close.

Divisional Rank: Fourth

PLAYOFFS?!: No, they lost half their team.


Team: Seattle Seahawks

Division: NFC West

Strengths: Are you kidding? The defense; it's still one of the most fearsome units in the NFL with perhaps the best secondary in the league. Plus the offense will likely still be good enough to give other teams fits.

Weaknesses: The Seahawks have played 56 games in the last three years, the most in the league over that span. Fatigue might be a real issue for this team.

Factor in the fact that both Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman are coming off offseason surgeries and that Kam Chancellor and the Seahawks are still (as of this writing) at an impasse financially, and there might be some trouble in the best section of the defense.

This isn't so much a weakness as a difference, but with Dan Quinn as the head man in Atlanta, the Seahawks lost their Super Bowl-winning-and-contending defensive coordinator. His replacement is Kris Richard, who's been the DB coach the last few years. The defensive backs are sure to like him and play hard for him, but he's still unproven as a coordinator.

Overall: The Seahawks are still one of the most top-heavy teams in the NFC, if not the entire NFL. They are also far and away the least flawed team in the division with the fewest question marks. Whatever issues there might be, they won't be felt in the regular season.

Divisional Rank: First

PLAYOFFS?!: Yes, they still rule the West.



Team: St. Louis Rams

Division: NFC West

Strengths: The Rams have a defense which could potentially wreak havoc. Their front seven in particular could be awe-inspiring, featuring Michael Brockers, Aaron Donald, James Laurinaitis, Chris Long, Alec Ogletree and Robert Quinn, plus offseason acquisitions Akeem Ayers and Nick Fairly. I mean, that's a ton of talent right there.

Weaknesses: As mentioned in the Eagles section, the Rams swapped Sam Bradford for Nick Foles. Foles has one spectacular season and one rather-lame season under his belt as a starter, so there's no telling how he'll play. The offense in general has question marks all over either because of injury history or shaky play (or both).

Overall: This might be the year the Rams shake off the mediocrity, with the 49ers reeling. But are they better than the Seahawks or Cardinals? Probably not. As a result, even if they show marked improvement, they still probably won't make the playoffs due to how tough the division is.

Divisional Rank: Third

PLAYOFFS?!: No, they still play in the NFC West.



Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Division: NFC South

Strengths: They have a shiny, new quarterback in Jameis Winston, and all that comes with him. Whenever a rookie quarterback is described as a strength, you know things aren't going to end well. But the Bucs do have good receivers in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, so there's that. Gerald McCoy is the best player on a terrible defense.

Weaknesses: Just about everything not mentioned above is a weakness. The defense other than McCoy and the offense other than Doug Martin and the starting receivers. That accounts for 18 weak spots between offense and defense. Plus, Winston isn't guaranteed any kind of success, so he's a question mark as well.

Overall: The Bucs will be bad and only slightly better than last year's sorry team. Don't expect them to be a quick turnaround.

Divisional Rank: Fourth

PLAYOFFS?!: No, they aren't going to make the playoffs after being so bad last year.



Team: Washington Redskins

Division: NFC East

Strengths: Alfred Morris is pretty good. Yup.

Weaknesses: Jesus, this team is a mess. Here are the most recent stories on the team from Deadspin. That's assuming something ridiculous doesn't happen involving this team in the next couple days. I don't care who the players are or how good they may or may not be. No one can succeed in this environment. No one.

Overall: Beyond the fact that this team is talent deficient and would struggle to win even with sane ownership, they're such a freaking disaster that they'll be lucky if they can equal their win total from last year (which was only four games, by the way). They'll be like a car crash in a nitroglycerin plant all season.

Divisional Rank: Fourth

PLAYOFFS?!: No, this team is a tire fire.

***

Most of the roster transaction stuff was obtained through various SB Nation articles.
Most of the player data was obtained through pro-football-reference.com.