2014 NFL PREDICTIONS: WEEK 4 SUNDAY AND MONDAY GAMES

Total Record: 30-19 (.612)
BYES: ARI, CIN, CLE, DEN, SEA, STL

CAR @ BAL
GB @ CHI
BUF @ HOU
TEN @ IND
DET @ NYJ
MIA @ OAK
TB @ PIT
JAX @ SD
ATL @ MIN
PHI @ SF
NO @ DAL
NE @ KC

2014 NFL PREDICTIONS: WEEK 4 THURSDAY GAME

Week 3 Record: 12-4 (.750)
Total Record: 30-18 (.625)

Byes: ARI, CIN, CLE, DEN, SEA, STL

NYG @ WAS

2014 NFL PREDICTIONS: WEEK 3 SUNDAY AND MONDAY GAMES

So I realized something- I like just throwing up what I predicted rather than offer a half-assed explanation as to why I predicted games that way. For two reasons- one, it's faster. And two- my reasons for thinking things don't matter 99% of the time. So from now on, I'm giving you my predictions and you have to decide for yourselves why I picked Bills this week (spoiler: I picked the Bills this week). So here they are!

Total Record: 19-14 (.576)

SD @ BUF
TEN @ CIN
BAL @ CLE
GB @ DET
IND @ JAX
OAK @ NE
MIN @ NO
HOU @ NYG
WAS @ PHI
DAL @ STL
SF @ ARI
KC @ MIA
DEN @ SEA
PIT @ CAR
CHI @ NYJ

2014 NFL PREDICTIONS: WEEK 3 THURSDAY GAME

I forgot to put this up earlier. Here it is.

Week 2 Record: 9-7 (.563)
Total Record: 18-14 (.563)

TB @ ATL

2014 NFL PREDICTIONS: WEEK 2 SUNDAY AND MONDAY GAMES

Note: Short one today. Poor time management will do that. Sorry.

Total Record: 10-7 (.588)

1. MIA @ BUF
2. DET @ CAR
3. ATL @ CIN
4. NO @ CLE
5. NE @ MIN
6. ARI @ NYG
7. DAL @ TEN
8. JAX @ WAS
9. KC @ DEN
10. NYJ @ GB
11. HOU @ OAK
12. SEA @ SD
13. STL @ TB
14. CHI @ SF
15. PHI @ IND

2014 NFL PREDICTIONS: WEEK 2 THURSDAY GAME

Week 1 Record: 9-7 (.563)
Total Record: 9-7 (.563)

Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Thoughts: The Steelers are on the road and banged up, but I'm still picking them because fuck the Ravens and really, the NFL as it's constructed presently.

Pick: Pittsburgh

2014 NFL PREDICTIONS: WEEK 1 SUNDAY AND MONDAY GAMES

Total Record: 1-0 (1.000)

1. New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Thoughts: The Saints begin their season on the road, but in a dome. The Falcons are better than they were last year, but the Saints have a potent offense and capable defense. Ugh. Eh, screw it.

Picks: Saints

2. Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Thoughts: The Bengals are on the road against a divisional opponent. They're 2-7 since 2011 in that scenario.

Picks: Ravens

3. Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears

Thoughts: I know a guy who I think will be very sad on Monday. I on the other hand will be happy. Quite happy.

Picks: Bears

4. Washington Redskins at Houston Texans

Thoughts: One of the few things the Texans did well last year was their pass defense, which was third-best in the league. With Robert Griffin III struggling and with Washington on the road, the Texans will get their first win in almost a full year.

Picks: Texans

5. Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs

Thoughts: Chiefs are at home and will win.

Picks: Chiefs

6. New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Thoughts: Patriots on the road but will win.

Picks: Patriots

7. Oakland Raiders at New York Jets

Thoughts: The Jets' secondary looks dreadful, and the Raiders are starting rookie Derek Carr, but he'll be going against a great Jets defensive line. I don't know what to think, so I'll just go with the home team.

Picks: Jets

8. Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles

Thoughts: The Jaguars will be better this year, but not until week 2 at the earliest.

Picks: Eagles

9. Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Thoughts: God the Browns are bad.

Picks: Steelers

10. Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams

Thoughts: Tough call. I think the Rams' defense will maul Matt Cassel all game long and keep Adrian Peterson in check.

Picks: Rams

11. San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys

Thoughts: The 49ers are going to steal the Cowboys' lunch money then go to jail. Cause the 49ers, 'm I right?!

Picks: 49ers

12. Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thoughts: Cam Newton has been gimpy for a month and Derek Anderson attended the production meeting for tomorrow's game. I don't know what that means other than the Bucs' defense beating the Panthers' asses.

Picks: Buccaneers

13. Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

Thoughts: Big game, likely big points. I think the home field advantage will notch the Broncos the win, Welker or no Welker. I haven't looked this up, but I believe with this win, Peyton Manning would become the second quarterback to start against and beat all 32 teams. So yeah, another notch in his hall of fame belt.

Picks: Broncos

14. New York Giants at Detroit Lions

Thoughts: I'll be in class while this is going on, so I'll miss a majority of this game. Thank fucking God. I think the Lions will win despite playing sloppy ball. The Giants will be sloppier.

Picks: Lions

15. San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals

Thoughts: I have to be in class by 8:30 in the morning. I'm not watching this game. Which is a shame, because I think it'll be fun. The Cardinals are the better team (or at least more talented on paper), so I'm going with them.

Picks: Cardinals

2014 NFL PREDICTIONS: WEEK 1 THURSDAY GAME

Just like every NFL team, I'm starting out 0-0. Let's dig into the match-up.

Game: Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

Thoughts: It's the first time the Packers have played the Seahawks since the Fail Mary game from 2011. You know, the game the Packers should've admittedly won but were screwed over by fake refs. Well the real NFL referees will be calling the game. Will the outcome be different? No.

I'm pretty sure I wrote "never bet against the Seahawks at home" for every Seahawks home game. It's not because I'm lazy (though coincidentally, I am very lazy), but because the 12th Man in Seattle is just overwhelming. I think it's going to be a surprisingly high scoring game, but I still think the Seahawks are going to be the first team to notch a victory this season.

Pick: Seahawks

2014 NFL PLAYOFFS PREDICTION

And now, the nitty-gritty. Which team will end the 2014 NFL season as the Super Bowl champions? Let's dig in, shall we? First, my playoff teams.

AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. New England Patriots
4. Cincinnati Bengals
5. Denver Broncos
6. New York Jets

NFC
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Chicago Bears
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Arizona Cardinals
6. Green Bay Packers

I have a three team playoff turnover from last year. The Panthers, Chargers and 49ers will miss out on the postseason this year. In their place are the Cardinals, Bears and Jets.

In the AFC, the Chiefs ride an early season victory over a Wes Welker-less Broncos team to 13 wins and the conference's top seed. Also helping them out is the fact that they're one of the few legitimately good teams in the AFC.

Meanwhile in the NFC, the Saints secure the 1st seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs thanks to a potent offense and improving defense.

The Colts, Patriots and Bengals all finish the season at the top of their divisions with equal 11-5 records in my predictions. I have the Bengals losing to the Colts and Patriots, securing them the 4th seed. The Colts beat the Patriots according to my season outlook, locking up a playoff bye for themselves while denying the Pats the same.

There's no such drama in the NFC. All the division winners are separated by one game. The Seahawks are likely to be a better team overall than their Super Bowl winning squad, but fall victim to being the defending champions (thus getting every opponent's A game).

Though the Chiefs handily win the AFC West, the Broncos are in no danger of missing the playoffs with an 11-5 record. The Jets find themselves as beneficiaries of season-ending tiebreakers, finishing with an 8-8 record along with the Ravens and Chargers.

The Packers and Cardinals each win 10 games, securing their places as the NFC's wild card teams. With the Cardinals having a better record against conference opponents compared to the Packers, they take the 5th seed while the Packers settle for 6th.

WILD CARD ROUND

Broncos at Bengals

The Bengals get the short straw as far as playoff opponents go. The Broncos outclass them in every way offensively, which will be enough to make up for the Bengals defense likely hounding Peyton Manning all game long.

Winner: Broncos

Packers at Seahawks

A rematch of tonight's season premier. The Seahawks turn up the volume on the field and in the stands, overwhelming the Packers.

Winner: Seahawks

Cardinals at Eagles

A real tough call, but a dry-heat West Coast team against an East Coast team in January? Advantage: Eagles.

Winner: Eagles

Jets at Patriots

Even though the Patriots have home-field in this scenario, the Jets go into overdrive defensively and make the Pats regret shipping off Logan Mankins.

Winner: Jets

DIVISIONAL ROUND

Jets at Chiefs

That said, the Jets keep the playoff upsets at one and get properly handled by the Chiefs in Arrowhead.

Winner: Chiefs

Seahawks at Bears

The way this is set up, it could go either way. But I think the Seahawks are just a better team than the Bears.

Winner: Seahawks

Eagles at Saints

The Eagles aren't upsetting the Saints in the Super Dome. It's just not happening.

Winner: Saints

Broncos at Colts

Man this is a tough one. I think this could be a really close game, but I'll give it to the Broncos. Manning will probably appreciate an indoor game in the middle of January.

Winner: Broncos

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

Broncos at Chiefs

Peyton Manning playing in a game that will likely feature A.) a loud opposing crowd and B.) a probable snow storm. I don't like the Broncos' chances in this one.

Winner: Chiefs

Seahawks at Saints

Two teams with infamous home-field advantages. Obviously, only the Saints would be taking advantage of theirs. I think it would be a much closer game than a lot of people would think, but I can't go against the Saints at home.

Winner: Saints

SUPER BOWL XLIX

Chiefs at Saints

So there it is. The Chiefs and Saints make their first appearances in the Super Bowl since their respective wins. The Saints make it to the big stage after a five year absence, with the Chiefs waiting for 45 years to return.

The Arizona desert will make this as equal a Super Bowl match-up without putting a dome on the stadium roof. Two good defenses will likely get their licks in throughout the game, but the Saints' superior offense will be the deciding factor.

Winner and Super Bowl Champions, the New Orleans Saints

***

So there you go. The Lombardi trophy will swing by Mardi Gras for the second time in five years. Will it actually shake out this way? Who the hell knows. They have to actually play some games first. Speaking of games, my prediction of the Seahawks-Packers premier game will be up momentarily. Check it out.

2014 NFC WEST PREVIEW

Last division and it's the best of the bunch. Here's my thoughts on the NFC West!

Arizona Cardinals

Pros: Like the Chiefs, the Cardinals didn't really get better or worse. I think they're about the same as they were last season. Considering that they won 10 games in 2013, that's a good thing.

Cons: Unlike the Chiefs, the Cardinals have to deal with the fact that they play a tougher conference and a much, much tougher division. Also, Darnell Dockett for the year thanks to his knee exploding.

Overall: I think the Cards can make the playoffs with a little outside help. Luckily for them, I think one of their division rivals will take a bit of step back this year, which will make a playoff berth more plausible.

Predicted Record: 10-6, 2nd

San Francisco 49ers

Pros: The defense is still out of this world and the offense can click if all goes well.

Cons: Colin Kaepernick has been scatter shot for a while. Navarro Bowman is still hurt after his knee injury in the playoffs while Aldon Smith is suspended for the first nine games. All in all, the defense is pretty banged up, putting more pressure on the aforementioned scatter shot offense.

Overall: The 49ers are primed to take a step back, though a step back for them would still result in a winning record.

Predicted Record: 9-7, 3rd

Seattle Seahawks

Pros: Russell Wilson has been absurd in the preseason. The defense will likely still be one of the best in the league even after the NFL actively tried to make them worse. Also, that home field advantage of theirs is insane.

Cons: As the defending champions, the Seahawks will have a bulls eye planted on their backs all season. And while not as pronounced as the Saints, the Seahawks tend to play significantly worse on the road than at home.

Overall: The Seahawks are a good bet to at least return to the postseason. If they get home field advantage for the second year in a row, they'll likely make a return trip to the Super Bowl. If.

Predicted Record: 11-5, 1st

St. Louis Rams

Pros: The Rams' defense has quietly been pretty good for a while now. The team also has a collection of intriguing talent on the offensive side of the ball as well.

Cons: They just lost Sam Bradford for the year, which sucks. Also, while a decent team, they're easily the worst in their division.

Overall: The Rams are probably better than their record will show, but they still have to improve greatly before they can compete for a postseason berth, let alone compete in the NFC West.

Predicted Record: 9-7, 4th

***

And that'll do it. I'll have my postseason predictions and pick for Thursday's game tomorrow. See you all then!

2014 AFC WEST PREVIEW

Two more divisions. Both in the West. This one in the AFC. Go!

Denver Broncos

Pros: As long as Peyton Manning is healthy, the offense is guaranteed to be great. More than likely, it'll be one of the top three best in the league. The defense was bad last year, but will likely improve with the addition of DeMarcus Ware and a non-suspended Von Miller.

Cons: Wes Welker will not be with the team for its first four games, which will probably hurt them in the short term. If a team can stop the passing game, the Broncos are pretty well fucked. Unless, like I said, the defense has improved dramatically.

Overall: While the Broncos are probably the most talented team in the AFC, the Welker suspension will hurt them in the records. I think they'll still make the playoffs, but I don't know how far their season goes after that.

Predicted Record: 11-5, 2nd

Kansas City Chiefs

Pros: The Chiefs stayed the same while the Broncos got worse (in the short term anyway). Remember, the Chiefs won 11 games last year.

Cons: The Chiefs only allowed 12.3 points per game before their bye week. They gave up 27.7 after they came back. A similar fade at around the same time this season would be absolutely catestrophic with the Seahawks, Broncos, Chargers and Cardinals all on the docket.

Overall: The Chiefs benefit the most from the Welker suspension and ride that all the way to the AFC's top seed.

Predicted Record: 13-3, 1st

Oakland Raiders

Pros: The team added a lot of talent in the offseason through free agency and the draft. The players they got could have a good impact on the team...

Cons: Or they couldn't.

Overall: No matter how you slice it, the Raiders are going to be bad next year. How bad they will actually be is anyone's guess, but they're easily the worst team in the division.

Predicted Record: 3-13, 4th

San Diego Chargers

Pros: Mike McCoy seems to have solved the Philip Rivers puzzle, getting him to his former Pro Bowl-self.

Cons: That defense isn't very intimidating in the slightest.

Overall: The Chargers made the playoffs by winning enough games to qualify, yes, but a lot of luck had to go into it as well. I don't think the team is really separated from the throngs of so-so teams that make up the conference.

Predicted Record: ###

***

One more division to go. Tune in!

2014 NFC SOUTH PREVIEW

Herp-a-derp! More football predictions! NFC South time.

Atlanta Falcons

Pros: Roddy White and Julio Jones will probably be healthy this year. Matt Ryan is still really good.

Cons: The offensive line will likely still be offensively bad (Matt Ryan may look like a timed-out Perfection game by the end of the season). The defense still blows.

Overall: The Falcons will be better than last year (which in all fairness was doomed by freak injuries than anything else). But with the Saints expected to be one of the best teams in the league next season and the Bucs likely to overachieve, I don't like their chances of a playoff berth.

Predicted Record: 7-9, 3rd

Carolina Panthers

Pros: The defense is still one of the top units in the league.

Cons: Cam Newton has been hobbled by an ankle injury and has no familiarity with his new receivers (which means all of the Panthers' receivers). The offensive line is also likely to be bad. Man, this is going to be a depressing year of offense in Charlotte.

Overall: A stout defense but poor offense will place the Panthers in the NFC South basement.

Predicted Record: 6-10, 4th

New Orleans Saints

Pros: There's a lot of upside to the Saints. Beyond Drew Brees being awesome, the Saints' defense was one of the most pleasant surprises from last year. This team could be scary good.

Cons: The defense is definitely still the weak link of the team overall. And as always, the team will likely struggle in the open air.

Overall: The Saints are good enough to legitimately contend for a Super Bowl. Winning the division seems like a formality (probably not a wise thing to say in early September). If they get one of the top two seeds, they could go all the way.

Predicted Record: 13-3, 1st

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pros: Lovie Smith is a significantly better coach than Greg Schiano. If he can't turn this defense around, no one can.

Cons: The offense reminds me of the Lovie-era Bears teams, which is not a good thing.

Overall: A conservative offense and a likely rejuvenated defense will both be interesting to see. I don't know if it will translate into tangible success, but the Bucs are at least intriguing.

Predicted Record: 8-8, 2nd

***

Off to the West Coast to knock off the last two divisions. See you then.

2014 AFC SOUTH PREVIEW

Hey ya'll! That's what they say in the South, right? Anyway, here's the preview of the AFC South.

Houston Texans

Pros: The defense is still good, likely better with the addition of Jadeveon Clowney. They just locked up J.J. Watt for the next few years. That's also good.

Cons: The offense is murky. Ryan Mallett is an unknown as a starter (I assume he's starting, why else would they trade for him AFTER the preseason ended?).

Overall: Really, as unfair as it is, quarterback will be the deciding factor whether the Texans are good or not. The defense will likely be dominant, but I don't think the Texans are going to pull a 2013 Chiefs and make the playoffs after their last dismal season.

Predicted Record: 6-10, 3rd

Indianapolis Colts

Pros: The Andrew Luck led passing attack is phenomenal.

Cons: Almost every other aspect of the team is mediocre at best. The defense wishes it was just mediocre.

Overall: The Colts haven't skipped a beat since moving on from Peyton Manning. If anything, they're the same team as always. They have a remarkably talented quarterback capable of propping up a below average team. Coupled with their weak division, don't be surprised to see the Colts as a top-four seed in the playoffs.

Predicted Record: 11-5, 1st

Jacksonville Jaguars

Pros: Blake Bortles looked great in the preseason and will start... eventually. Overall, the Jaguars seem pointed in the right direction under Gus Bradly and David Caldwell.

Cons: The team is still pretty crappy, unfortunately for Jaguars fans.

Overall: I actually think the Jaguars will be one of the surprise teams of the season. Granted, that surprise will likely lead to only five or six wins, but compared to where the Jaguars have been the last few years, that's an incredible improvement.

Predicted Record: 6-10, 2nd

Tennessee Titans

Pros: Oh, hell. This again. Look, I'll be upfront- I have absolutely no clue how the Titans are going to do. Nor do I particularly care. They are the beige walls of football.


Cons: Looking at the roster, it doesn't look good. Granted I thought they'd be 2-14 last year, but this year they really look uninspiring.

Overall: Jesus, I'm still writing about the Titans. God help me.

Predicted Record: 4-12, 4th

***

Next up, the NFC South! See you then.