Friday, August 2, 2013

POTENTIAL 2014 PRO FOOTBALL HALL OF FAME CANIDATES: COACHES

Tomorrow, the pro football hall of fame will formally induct its newest members. And while I can't wait to see these men take their steps into immortality, I'm also looking towards next year. I'll be profiling fifty modern era candidates that could wind up wearing a gold jacket in 2014. Today, we'll be looking at the coaches.

* indicates first year of eligibility
** indicates former hall of fame finalist

DON CORYELL*

1973-1977 St. Louis Cardinals, 1978-1986 San Diego Chargers

Accomplishments: 6 Playoff appearances (1974-1975, 1979-1982); 5 Division Titles (1974-1975, 1979-1981); 2 Conference Championship appearances (1980-1981); 100 Wins Club

Pros: You know how its the norm in football today for quarterbacks to take precedence over the running game and for them to throw an exorbitant number of passes for an inflated number of yards? Don Coryell was making that happen in the early 80s. Under Coryell's watch, the 1979-1982 San Diego Chargers led the league in passing yards and were in the top five in pass attempts. Coryell allowed Chargers quarterback Dan Fouts to throw 629 passes in 1981 at a time when it was rare for quarterbacks to throw 500 passes in a season. The modern passing game wouldn't exist without Coryell's innovations, and the 49ers, Redskins and Rams' Super Bowl teams had offenses that were extremely similar to the ones Coryell was using years earlier. Beyond those innovations, his teams won; he turned around the Cardinals and Chargers into playoff contenders when both teams had been largely horrible before his hire.

Cons: Coryell's teams were innovative and won in the regular season, but they didn't make much headway in the playoffs. The San Diego Chargers made it to the AFC Championship game two years in a row in 1980 and 1981, but no Coryell coached team ever made it to the Super Bowl. Coryell's playoff record is a dismal 3-6, which probably isn't helping his case.

Overall: The West Coast offense originated with Don Coryell and is still being used today. Not only that, but teams have won Super Bowls with the offense he created. The fact that he hasn't been given due credit by the hall of fame voters for his undeniable contributions to the game of football is completely absurd. Coryell made the finals in 2010 but other than that, he hasn't received much consideration. I hope that changes, as he is the father of the modern passing game.

HoF Projection: Maybe

BILL COWHER
1992-2006 Pittsburgh Steelers

Accomplishments: 10 Playoff appearances (1992-1997, 2001-2002, 2004-2005); 8 Division Titles (1992, 1994-1997, 2001-2002, 2004); 6 Conference Championship appearances (1994-1995, 1997, 2001, 2004-2005); 2 Super Bowl appearances (1995, 2005); Super Bowl champion (2005); 100 Wins Club; 10 Playoff Wins Club

Pros: If I'd compare Bill Cowher to any coach that's currently in the hall of fame, it'd be John Madden. Cowher went to just as many championships and won just as many as Madden and also the Steelers accumulated more wins than any team in the AFC in his first ten years. Cowher also got the Steelers to as many Conference Championships as Madden (six) and more Super Bowls (two to Madden's one). Cowher also only had three losing seasons in his fifteen year career, and the Steelers went to the playoffs ten times under him while winning 11 or more games seven times.

Cons: The comparisons to Madden also have their drawbacks; Madden retired in 1979 and it took until 2006 for him to get enshrined. That doesn't necessarily bode well for Cowher. Another impediment is that the voters don't like to put coaches on their ballots unless they're damn sure they're going to stay retired. Cowher's name gets thrown around every year when a coaching vacancy is announced, and while he's never taken the bait, he also hasn't exactly been adamant about his desire to stay retired, which hurts his candidacy in the short term.

Overall: Cowher's got a pretty good hall of fame resume; Cowher took his teams to at least the Conference Championship Game six times (only Bill Belichick at seven has taken his teams that deep more since the playoffs expanded to 12 teams in 1990). He's got a Super Bowl win under his belt, was one win shy of 150 when he retired in 2006, and the Steelers won more games from 1992 to 2006 than any other team in the NFL. First the voters have to determine whether or not he'll stay retired. After that, it should be a pretty easy decision.

HoF Projection: Slim Chance (with all that said, I think he'll come back eventually)

TONY DUNGY*
1996-2001 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2002-2008 Indianapolis Colts

Accomplishments: NFL 2000s All-Decade Team (2nd Team); 11 Playoff appearances (1997, 1999-2008); 6 Division Titles (1999, 2003-2007); 3 Conference Championship appearances (1999, 2003, 2006); 1 Super Bowl appearance (2006); Super Bowl champion (2006); 100 Wins Club

Pros: Want to turn around franchises that have been either terrible or need a wake up call on how to win consistently? Hire Tony Dungy. Dungy turned the Tampa Bay Buccaneers into frequent playoff teams after going 14 straight seasons without a winning record. He later turned the talented Indianapolis Colts into Super Bowl caliber teams after a period where they began to underachieve after the 1999 season. In his thirteen year career, Dungy's teams missed the playoffs just twice and and had one losing season. He has the most wins in Colts history and became the first African American head coach to win the Super Bowl. He also notably accomplished these things while being the world's nicest man.

Cons: While Dungy's teams were almost always successful in the regular season. Once the playoffs started... well that's another story. Dungy accumulated a pretty mediocre 9-10 career postseason record, and his extremely talented teams were embarrassingly bounced from the playoffs in their first games six times. The main criticism was that he built his teams to excel in the first seventeen weeks of the season, but they were either completely unprepared once the postseason started, or more damningly, underachieved. Also, like Marvin Harrison, Dungy's success with the Colts has been attributed mostly to Peyton Manning's skills as a quarterback rather than Dungy's coaching expertise.

Overall: Dungy eventually won a Super Bowl, so the "he couldn't win in the postseason" arguments largely went out with the confetti storm he helped cause. Manning, while an all time great quarterback now, was merely a really great one before Dungy's arrival, and couldn't put the team on his back yet (the Colts went 10-6 and 6-10 after going 13-3 in his second season). Once Dungy arrived, the Colts couldn't stop winning, and his time with the Buccaneers cemented him as a great coach anyway. He's definitely worthy of the hall of fame. I just don't know if he'll go in this year.

HoF Projection: Maybe

JON GRUDEN*
1998-2001 Oakland Raiders, 2002-2008 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Accomplishments: 5 Playoff appearances and Division Titles (2000-2002, 2005, 2007); 2 Conference Championship appearances (2000, 2002); 1 Super Bowl appearance (2002); Super Bowl champion (2002)

Pros: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers under Tony Dungy were extremely talented, but never made the leap to Super Bowl contenders under his watch. So Dungy was replaced with a man known for giving teams a swift kick in the ass: Jon Gruden. In Gruden's first season with the Bucs, they won a team record 12 games before running roughshod over everyone in the playoffs, culminating in the team's first and only Super Bowl win. Gruden was hired to do just that, and succeeded. His prior resume had led the Glazer family to beleive he was the man for the job: Gruden had been the Raiders coach for four seasons, where he similarly turned them into contenders after the team had been mediocre to bad for about six or seven seasons. Good track record.

Cons: After the Super Bowl win, it was all downhill from there. Gruden's teams never again won a postseason game, and making the postseason in general became a hurdle. The Buccaneers have yet to have consecutive postseason appearances since 1999-2002, and the team only won more than 9 games once after the Super Bowl season. Gruden was fired after six largely forgettable seasons of strife and losing, and is now the color commentator for Monday Night Football. Which leads to another con, because Gruden has been not-so-subtly trying to get back into coaching the right team, so hall voters (and others like me with no vote) believe he'll eventually start coaching again, maybe as early as next year. And like I mentioned with Bill Cowher, that's not going to help him. And if Gruden needs anything as far as hall of fame consideration goes, it's help.

Overall: Gruden was a good, even great coach, but he's so not a hall of famer. He wasn't nearly as successful as several of his coaching peers (like Dungy, Cowher, Mike Holmgren, Bill Belichick, Andy Reid, Mike Shanahan, etc.), and never accomplished anything of note after 2002. So Gruden has more seasons where his teams didn't do anything (8) than he has been successful (3). Not a hall of famer at this point, to put it gently.

HoF Projection: Not This Year

MIKE HOLMGREN*
1992-1998 Green Bay Packers, 1999-2008 Seattle Seahawks

Accomplishments: 12 Playoff appearances (1993-1999, 2003-2007); 8 Division Titles (1995-1997, 1999, 2004-2007); 4 Conference Championship appearances (1995-1997, 2005); 3 Super Bowl appearances (1996-1997, 2005); Super Bowl champion (1996); 150 Wins Club; 10 Postseason Wins Club

Pros: Holmgren revitalized two franchises after years of futility. The Packers had been largely awful after Vince Lombardi resigned as head coach after the 1967 season. Holmgren gave the Packers a winning punch for the first time in decades, getting them to three straight NFC Championship Games, two straight Super Bowls, and one Super Bowl win. Likewise, the Seahawks had been awful for most of the 90s, and Holmgren took them to consistently high heights in the 00s, winning four straight division titles and reaching the only Super Bowl in team history. He also has the most wins in Seahawks history, is tied with Vince Lombardi with the all time postseason wins in Packers history, is one of seventeen coaches to win at least 150 games, and is one of fifteen coaches to win at least 10 postseason games.

Cons: Holmgren doesn't have as many Super Bowl wins or appearances as other enshrined coaches. Of the coaches in the Super Bowl era that are in the hall of fame that won at least 100 games, George Allen, Bud Grant and Marv Levy won fewer Super Bowls than Holmgren (zero), and Grant and Levy at least got their teams to four Super Bowls each (one more than Holmgren).

Overall: There are no coaches with at least 100 wins and won one Super Bowl that aren't in the hall of fame. That works in Holmgren's favor. The fact that he's in the top 15 all time in regular season wins and the top 10 in postseason wins also works in his favor. It is hard for coaches to make the hall of fame, because they're judged along with players, but Holmgren has a good shot of making it in one day.

HoF Projection: Maybe

MARTY SCHOTTENHEIMER

1984-1988 Cleveland Browns, 1989-1998 Kansas City Chiefs,
2001 Washington Redskins, 2002-2006 San Diego Chargers

Accomplishments: 13 Playoff appearances (1985-1988, 1990-1995, 1997, 2004, 2006); 8 Division Titles (1985-1987, 1993, 1995, 1997, 2004, 2006); 4 Conference Championship appearances (1986-1987, 1993, 2006); 200 Wins Club

Pros: Schottenheimer turned around three teams that went through dry spells over twenty odd years. He coached the Browns to two straight AFC Championship Games, turned the Chiefs into a perennial playoff team after nearly two decades of futility, and turned around the San Diego Chargers after they went through a bad period, including winning a team record 14 games in 2006. Also, the Chiefs are tied for second in the NFL with the Bills with 101 wins between 1989 and 1998. Scottenheimer is also one of seven coaches in history to win at least 200 games.

Cons: Schottenheimer's teams were usually great in the regualr season, but wilted in the postseason. His teams never won a postseason game after the 1993 season, and there were some really talented teams he was the skipper of in that time. Also not helping his case: there is no one enshrined as a coach in the Super Bowl era that never made it to the big game.

Overall: Schottenheimer won more games than all but five other coaches. 200 wins is a big deal. He has no championships to show for all his success. If even one of his teams got to the Super Bowl, not even win one, he'd likely have received more support. As it is, he has received no support. That's likely the way things will go for him, but he has a shot to make it in, however unlikely it is.

HoF Projection: Slim Chance

And that does it for my hall of fame preview. I hope you grew to appreciate the fifty men I profiled a little more, and root for the best of them in the coming months. And be sure to watch the broadcast of the Pro Football Hall of Fame class of 2013 induction ceremony tomorrow at 7:00 PM (EST) on the NFL Network.

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