Monday, September 7, 2015

2015 NFL PREVIEW (AFC)

Football is upon us once again, so how about I make predictions that will probably be invalidated by October? Let's start with the AFC.



Team: Baltimore Ravens

Division: AFC North

Strengths: Joe Flacco is coming off a really good season and the defense will be formidable as always.

Weaknesses: Marc Tressman is the new offensive coordinator and he's coming off a less-than-stellar (to put it mildly) run as head coach of the Bears. The offense in Chicago didn't exactly wow (and Tressman seemed to be actively plotting against it at times, or that's how it seemed anyway), and there's no telling that the same won't happen in Baltimore. Also, offensive line is a definite weak spot.

Overall: The Ravens will make the playoffs not necessarily because they're the best team in their division, but because they're the least flawed. They have more pieces that are more reliable than any other AFC North team and, thus, I have more confidence in them than I do in the Bengals, Browns and Steelers.

Divisional Rank: First

PLAYOFFS?!: Yes, but it might be tough.



Team: Buffalo Bills

Division: AFC East

Strengths: The Bills boast one of the best defenses in the NFL, have some talented wide receivers, and will likely have an improved running game with LeSean McCoy in the backfield behind a decent-enough offensive line.

Weaknesses: All of the above strengths could be undone thanks question marks at quarterback. As of this writing, the Bills are set to go with Tyrod Taylor under center, who's never started a game in his career. And if Taylor doesn't work out the other options aren't very promising in a shaky E.J. Manuel and Matt Cassel, who is still getting NFL jobs.

Overall: If the Bills can get even average performances from their QBs, they'll be a scary, scary team. As it is, I wouldn't bet on a team with those kinds of question marks. And even if they do play well under center, they still need to get past the Patriots and (probably, see below) the Dolphins.

Divisional Rank: Third

PLAYOFFS?!: No, quarterback is just too much of a question mark.

Team: Cincinnati Bengals

Division: AFC North

Strengths: Geno Atkins is a year removed from his torn ACL and will likely bounce back to his pre-injury form. The defense is good in general and on offense the Bengals boast some good receivers (and A.J. Green, one of the league's best) and two good running backs.

Weaknesses: Andy Dalton is still hard to get a handle on as far as if he's good or woefully average. He's probably just fine, which is okay, until the playoffs start. Dalton has been awful come playoff time with a career passer rating of 57.8 in four playoff games. The Bengals also haven't won a playoff game since 1991, the longest streak in the NFL.

Overall: The Bengals, as has been the norm recently, are a strong enough team to make the playoffs. The problem is once they get there, can they actually do something about it other than going one-and-done? That may be a moot point this year, as the rest of the conference has gotten a bit tougher. I don't think they'll make it all this year while still being a very good team.

Divisional Rank: Second

PLAYOFFS?!: No, but just barely.



Team: Cleveland Browns

Division: AFC North

Strengths: They changed their uniforms a bit. Depending on your point of view that can be a strength.

Weaknesses: Except for Joe Thomas and Alex Mack on the O-Line and maybe Joe Haden at corner, every position on this team is a weakness.

Overall: The Browns are the worst team in their division and it's not even close. Actually, they're one of the worst teams in the conference, and it's only kind of close.

Divisional Rank: Fourth

PLAYOFFS?!: Do you really have to ask? No.



Team: Denver Broncos

Division: AFC West

Strengths: Peyton Manning, despite being the oldest starting quarterback in the league, is still Peyton Manning. Which means that the Broncos' offense will likely still be one of the best in the NFL, at least for one more season. The defense is also pretty good.

Weaknesses: Running back may be an issue. The Broncos liked C.J. Anderson enough that they cut Montee Ball (it helped that Ball really, really sucked), but Anderson has never had a full workload in his NFL career. And even though I called him a strength, Manning pushing 40 likely means his days as a top-flight quarterback are probably coming to an end. Although, I said that same thing about two years ago, so what do I know?

Overall: This is probably the last hurrah for the Broncos as they are currently constructed. A Super Bowl appearance might be a bit much to expect, but a division title? That's as easy it gets.

Divisional Rank: First

PLAYOFFS?!: Yes; Peyton Manning reigns supreme for at least one more year.



Team: Houston Texans

Division: AFC South

Strengths: The defense, led by J.J. Watt, is great. Brian Cushing and Jadeveon Clowney are relatively healthy.

Weaknesses: Offense. They're banking on Brian Hoyer being a decent starting quarterback, Arian Foster is out for the foreseeable future and offensive line looks like a ravaged mess.

Overall: While there are a couple receivers that could be fun to watch, the Texans are defensive team and nothing more. They're the second-best team in the AFC South, which is like bragging that you won a game of chicken with most of your limbs intact. Despite that lofty claim, this team is nowhere near good enough to threaten for a playoff spot.

Divisional Rank: Second

PLAYOFFS?!: No. And it won't be close.



Team: Indianapolis Colts

Division: AFC South

Strengths: They have Andrew Luck. They also added Andre Johnson and Frank Gore on offense, and Kendall Langford and Trent Cole on defense. Also, they play in the AFC South, which is terrible.

Weaknesses: The defense, as always, is still a weak spot, even with the above mentioned additions. Also, the players I mentioned they added through free agency may or may not work out (they are all older players after all).

Overall: Thanks to playing in a crap division and getting some other powerhouse teams at home, the Colts will likely run away with the AFC South crown and probably threaten for the top seed in the playoffs.

Divisional Rank: First

PLAYOFFS?!: Yes, easily in fact.


Team: Jacksonville Jaguars

Division: AFC South

Strengths: Okay, we've come to my favorite annual passtime; trying to find something positive to say about the Jaguars. Okay, um... maybe Blake Bortles will be better than his rookie season. Okay, good! One kind of positive thing! Moving on.

Weaknesses: It'll be easier listing the strengths. Which I did above. There are no other strengths. This team is bad.

Overall: Really bad.

Divisional Rank: Fourth

PLAYOFFS?!: Not this year, that's for sure.



Team: Kansas City Chiefs

Division: AFC West

Strengths: Jamaal Charles is one of the best running backs in the league and the Chiefs defense is among the stingiest. Alex Smith, while unspectacular, doesn't turn the ball over very often and thus doesn't hurt the team.

Weaknesses: Receiver leaves a lot to be desired, since the Chiefs somehow went an entire season without any wideouts catching a touchdown. O-line is anther big if for the team. Basically, the offense in general is a big if.

Overall: The Chiefs are talented enough defensively to make games rough for their opponents, but unless the receivers play better, this may be a long season. Still, I think they have enough going for them to contend for the playoffs. I mean, the receivers can't go two-straight seasons without a touchdown through the air, right? Right?

Divisional Rank: Second

PLAYOFFS?!: Yes, but only just.



Team: Miami Dolphins

Division: AFC East

Strengths: Ryan Tannehill has quietly put together a good couple of seasons, despite throwing to cans of soup and getting ground to paste under opposing defensive players. The defense, which had been pretty good, got a whole lot better with the addition of Ndamukong Suh.

Weaknesses: Receiver is still an issue, as is the offensive line, which allowed Tannehill to be ground into paste. Also Joe Philbin is the head coach.

Overall: Defense will reign supreme in South Florida and will likely carry the Dolphins to victories they wouldn't have come by a year ago. I think they have what it takes to make the playoffs, but with Brady officially unsuspended, that might be a tougher go.

Divisional Rank: Second

PLAYOFFS?!: Yes, but that unfortunately leads to another year or so of Joe Philbin.


Team: New England Patriots

Division: AFC East

Strengths: Tom Brady will play the entire season because a federal judge correctly ruled that Roger Goodell is a fucking moron.

Weaknesses: The defense, as has been the norm nearly every year since 2009, is a weak point. More so than usual as they lost most of their secondary from last season.

Overall: Without Brady for four games, the Pats would've probably still won the AFC East. With Brady for the whole season, they'll win it easily and contend for a top seed in the conference.

Divisional Rank: First

PLAYOFFS?!: Yes, they're still kings of the AFC East.



Team: New York Jets

Division: AFC East

Strengths: The Jets defense is likely to be really good. They also have receivers in Brandon Marshall (great) and Eric Decker (not as great, but still good).

Weaknesses: Quarterback, quarterback, quarterback. It was going to be rough enough with Geno Smith, but Ryan Fitzpatrick will likely be the starter for much if not all of the season.

Overall: The Jets may have a good defense, but every team in the AFC East save the Patriots has a good defense. The Jets could get some lucky breaks and win some games they shouldn't, but when has good fortune consistently blessed this team?

Divisional Rank: Fourth

PLAYOFFS?!: No, there's too much working against them.



Team: Oakland Raiders

Division: AFC West

Strengths: Holy crap, this team actually might have promise. I know, right?! Derek Carr looks like a keeper at QB. Amari Cooper has the potential to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Michael Crabtree looks good. Khali Mack looks like a damn beast. And Charles Woodson is a cagey old guy now, which is pretty fun.

Weaknesses: With all that said, this team still has a lot of holes and they play in one of the tougher divisions in the AFC.

Overall: The Raiders can probably win six games this year; there are some pretty crappy teams on their schedule, and they might even be able to take a few games from better teams here and there. But as far as playoff chances go? They probably won't challenge for the postseason until 2017 at the earliest. It's definitely not going to happen this year.

Divisional Rank: Fourth

PLAYOFFS?!: No, but they'll probably be promising and fun for the first time in forever.



Team: Pittsburgh Steelers

Division: AFC North

Strengths: Antonio Brown is one of the best receivers in the NFL and Ben Roethlisberger is shockingly durable.

Weaknesses: The defense, often the strength of the team in the last 40+ years, is the definitive weakness on this team. They'll likely leak yards and points all season.

Overall: In addition to a bad defense, the Steelers can't expect Roethlisberger to replicate his fantastic 2014 in which he threw for career highs in touchdowns and yards and single-digit interceptions for only the fourth time in his career. Those were likely anomalies. He still may have a good season, but in the AFC North I don't think it will translate into the Steelers competing for a playoff spot.

Divisional Rank: Third

PLAYOFFS?!: No, but just by a hair.



Team: San Diego Chargers

Division: AFC West

Strengths: Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates and Eric Weddle are very good players.

Weaknesses: While I'm not about to call him a liability, Philip Rivers has been very herky-jerky the last few seasons, even with two Pro Bowls under his belt in that time. It's kind of important for Rivers to be more consistent because, man, does this team have holes. The defense is perennially disappointing, and aside from Allen and Gates (who, by the way, is suspended for the first four games), the non-quarterback skill positions leave a lot to be desired.

Overall: The Chargers are the Giants West Coast, in that they're boringly mediocre. The only difference is that the Chargers have a better quarterback and the added distraction of relocation hanging over them. Weeeeeeee!!!!

Divisional Rank: Third

PLAYOFFS?!: No, there's too many question marks on this team.



Team: Tennessee Titans

Division: AFC South

Strengths: The Titans took Marcus Mariota in the Draft and not Jameis Winston, so that's good from a P.R. perspective (though, if the Bucs took Mariota instead, the Titans probably would've still taken Winston). Mariota looked good in the preseason, which I'm sure means something to someone. And Dick LeBeau came in as a defensive consultant. Maybe he needed a change of scenery after spending so much time in the same place and the defense will improve as a result.

Weaknesses: Once all of the above-mentioned hope is extinguished, it will become unavoidable that this is as piss-poor a roster as any in the league. Coached by Ken Whisenhunt. Yeah.

Overall: The Titans will not be good, but they still have more going for them than the Jaguars at the moment. Which is to say, they have a shiny, new quarterback to play with and that will make Titans fans hopeful for the future. But as far as contending in the here and now, it's not going to happen.

Divisional Rank: Third

PLAYOFFS?!: Are you kidding? No.

***

That'll do it for now. Swing by here tomorrow for the NFC Preview.

Most of the roster transaction stuff was obtained through various SB Nation articles.
Most of the player data was obtained through pro-football-reference.com.

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