I was formulating my thoughts for my predictions for this week's slate of games, and came to the Chiefs/Broncos game. I had a lot to say about it, mostly pertaining to what I've noticed about Peyton Manning this year. So I'm spinning that off into its own column, and hopefully, it'll be coherent.
Peyton Manning is having one of the best seasons, if not the best season of his career. He already has 3,249 passing yards. He's already thrown 33 touchdowns to just six interceptions. His 71.0 completion percentage is the best of his career. But I've seen signs that he's slowing down.
I read Jeff Peralman's book on Walter Payton (which you should all read by the way), and in the last couple years of his career, Payton had a real problem securing the football. After more than a decade of playing in the NFL at a high level, I don't think Walter Payton suddenly forgot how to properly hold on to a football. I just don't think he had the ability anymore. Pearlman attributed the fumbling problem for Payton to the fact that his body had taken a real beating throughout his career and it was beginning to catch up with him. Payton was also not as strong as he was in his younger years (he was in his thirties when his fumbling problem began, and that's when just about every running back in football history starts to fade fast), so the problem with ball security was also due to his fading power.
Now what does this have to do with Peyton Manning? Manning's career high for fumbles in a season is seven back in 2001. He has seven already this year, after just nine games. I've also read numerous articles and listened to a bunch of analysts during Broncos games (I think I've seen all but one Broncos game this year), and almost all of them have mentioned that Manning isn't throwing the ball with quite the same zip as in years past. This all points to Manning losing some strength, just like Walter Payton before him. Now obviously, Peyton Manning and Walter Payton played different positions in different eras. But they share an important similarity: they were both fortunate enough to play at such a high level, that they were allowed to get old.
Manning is 37. This is technically his fifteenth season (he missed all of the 2011 season due to his offseason neck surgery). My point is, he's been around the block a few times. He isn't as strong as he was in his prime, nor is he as durable. One of the big storylines going into the Chiefs/Broncos game is that Manning is coming off of an ankle injury from his game against the Chargers. He's sat out of practice a couple times this week. When was the last time you remember reading about Peyton Manning being hurt? Barring that season-ending-before-it-began neck surgery, he's been freakishly durable. Manning has played every possible game of his career (233 as of before week 11), again, barring his lost 2011 season. But now, the signs are all there that he's not as spry as he was. Again, that points to his age.
And yet, he's having maybe the best season of his entire slam dunk, hall of fame, one of the best of all time career. This reminds me so much of Brett Favre's 2009 season. Favre, in case you were wondering, is also one of the best to ever play. He was in his nineteenth season and turned 40 in the middle of it. And yet, he threw 33 touchdowns, just seven interceptions (!) (the only time in his career where he started a significant number of games and threw single-digit picks). He threw for the third most yards of his career (4,202) with a career high completion percentage (68.4) and passer rating (107.2). He led the Vikings to a 12-4 record and came within a last minute interception from leading the Vikes to their first Super Bowl appearance in over thirty years.
The next year, after much hemming, hawing, and cajoling from teammates, Favre decided to come back for a twentieth season. And the wheels came off. A year after having the best season of his career, Favre had, without question, the worst season of his career. He had an 11/19 TD to INT ratio, his vaunted consecutive games started streak came to a pitiful end, and the Vikings missed the playoffs with a 6-10 record. He was both staggeringly ineffective and distressingly brittle during the lost campaign.
Favre admitted later to only coming back due to the money and the camaraderie of the locker room. But another aspect that contributed to his miserable final season was the fact that he was 41, wasn't as strong as he once was, and the durability he was lauded and respected for was gone. He was just some weird old guy playing football poorly, not one of the best of all time, which is what he was/is. His career ended, as T.S. Elliot once wrote, not with a bang but a whimper.
I'm not saying Manning's career will end in a similarly disappointing fashion. But the signs are there that he's not the same player he was even three years ago. His stats are jaw-dropping, but his arm and his body aren't nearly as impressive. Even if the Broncos go to the Super Bowl, they don't even have to win it, the 2014 season will likely not go well. This Broncos team is great, but the flaws are there. The defense is playing decisively meh and ever since Ryan Clady went on injured reserve, the offensive line has been the opposite of sturdy. Manning's historic play is covering up some of these deficiencies, but next year he will be another year older and another year closer to the dreaded four-oh. He's already showing signs of slowing down, another season will likely exasperate those signs into full blown flaws. He'll likely retire after either this season or the next. All this is inevitable. It is for every athlete, even the greatest. They all get old, and eventually, they all walk away.
That's the most depressing thing about these signs. It just reminds me that I won't be seeing Peyton Manning throw the football for much longer. And that makes me sad.
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