There was a point at the half of the early games on Sunday where I would have been 4-5 if they had ended at that moment. But most of my original hunches paid off and I ended going up 6-3 through the one o'clock games and went 11-4 overall for week 4. I'm 42-21 on the year so far due to genuine smart picking and quite a bit of luck, but I'll take it.
For this Thursday's game, I'll go with the Browns over the Bills. Beyond the fact that the Browns are at home, they also have a very good defense and despite my trepidation, Brian Hoyer has played pretty well in his first two games. The Bills have a lot of good pieces and are also coming off a big win, but they're still not good against the run (which likely won't matter this week anyway) and E.J. Manuel is going to go through growing pains. Against that defense, I think he'll have a rough night. Same for the combination of C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson.
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