The Seahawks are likely still pealing confetti out of their hair, but that's not going to stop me from seeing how their and the other 31 teams' fates will check out starting in September.
Word to the wise- it is way, WAY too early to accurately gauge how teams will preform in 2014. The Seahawks are likely to still be good and the Raiders are more than likely going to be bad, but broadly? Free agency hasn't happened yet. The draft hasn't happened yet. The free agency after the draft hasn't happened yet. And we still don't know what major players are going to get hurt in OTAs and training camp, or in the occasional freak bowling accident.
So as all preseason predictions should be taken with a grain of salt, this piece should be taken with a couple tons of the stuff.
For this article, I'm going to follow these guidelines: I'm just going to assume that every team's rosters as they are currently constructed will remain the same. So every free agent will remain on their 2013 team and future injuries won't be taken into account accept for the players that are already hurt. There is exactly ZERO chance of this happening, but it's early so bear with me.
AFC EAST
1. New England Patriots*
2. New York Jets
3. Miami Dolphins
4. Buffalo Bills
The Patriots had no right to not only make the playoffs last year but get within a game of the Super Bowl with the receivers they had. Hell, I'm surprised I didn't make the team's roster with the quality of guys Brady was throwing at being so thin. If it wasn't true already, 2013 cemented this line of thinking- as long as the combination of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are on the Patriots, they'll be one of the better teams in the AFC. With neither retiring in time for next season, they'll remain a good team in a mediocre division in a mediocre conference.
As for the rest division, it ranges from meh to meh-er. The Jets will likely remain in the mold they've been in the Rex Ryan era with a scatter-shot offense and pretty good defense. The Dolphins are a decent team mired in strife and misery. The Bills have some good pieces and an underrated defense, but are still pretty lame. Not a whole lot different in the AFC East.
AFC NORTH
1. Cincinnati Bengals*
2. Baltimore Ravens*
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Cleveland Browns
Did you know that Andy Dalton threw the third most touchdowns in the NFL last year with 33? Shut up. No you didn't. Dalton, if coached correctly, can be the AFC's answer to Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson, minus the running ability. So as I said in this article, knock off the 40 pass attempts bullshit with him, okay new Bengals' OC? Jay Gruden taking the Washington job will do wonders for this Bengals offense, so says I.
The Ravens almost have to be better than they were this year, right? I mean, they have to. The Steelers will be good on offense at least. And the Browns will still be bad. Sorry Cleveland.
AFC SOUTH
1. Houston Texans*
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Tennessee Titans
Surprise, surprise, surprise! The Texans will be the latest team to bounce back from having the number one draft pick to an unlikely playoff spot. The defense is still one of the best in the NFL (at least against the pass where they ranked third in 2013). As long they can get a decent season out of the quarterback position and Arian Foster stays healthy, they should have a good year. I realize that there's a lot of qualifiers with this team, but look at the rest of the division.
The Colts have Andrew Luck, some receivers and not much else. Their run game was inconsistent, the offensive line is terrible and the defense is closer to the bad end of the scale than the good. The Jaguars played hard in the second half of the season, but they still have a severe lack of talent in all phases of the game. As for the Titans, who the hell knows. If Chris Johnson is still on the team in 2014, I'll be shocked, and the QB position is murky. They've got some talented players, but I don't have a good read on them at all. With that said, I don't think they'll be 2-14.
AFC WEST
1. Denver Broncos*
2. Kansas City Chiefs*
3. San Diego Chargers
4. Oakland Raiders
Yes, the Broncos got humiliated in the Super Bowl. No, it's not going to matter in the regular season. The AFC is so weak, that the Broncos will likely reach the AFC Championship Game, at least. Manning isn't going to play much longer, but until he actually retires, the Broncos will be contenders.
The Chiefs can only get better after their bounce-back season. Again, they won't win the AFC West because of the Broncos, but in the AFC, they'll be a playoff team.
The Chargers are on the upswing, but I think they'll be a casualty of the Ravens playing better. The Raiders have cap room for the first time in God knows how long, so they'll actually be able to fix the team a bit, but not enough to get out of fourth-place hell.
NFC EAST
1. Washington Redskins*
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. New York Giants
4. Dallas Cowboys
The NFC East is always difficult to predict. I imagine as I keep updating these predictions, this will be the division that changes the most. Hell, I won't be surprised if the current standings are completely flipped in time for my final predictions. With that said, I think Washington will be better in 2014, and that might be all they need to be to win the division. In a logical world, the Eagles should repeat as division champions, but the NFC is a dadaist nightmare where logic goes to die.
As for the Giants and Cowboys, they'll both be inconsistent or mercifully bite the bullet and just be bad so they can actually improve their teams. God help me, I don't want another three to four years of these two shit teams flirting with respectability.
NFC NORTH
1. Chicago Bears*
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Detroit Lions
4. Minnesota Vikings
Feel free to cry fan pick, but I really like the Bears to win the division. Again, if everything stays the same, the Bears' offense is great, the defense is poor. But you can say the same thing about the Packers. The Packers' defense is about as bad as the Bears', but, and I can't believe I'm typing this with a straight face, the Bears have the superior offensive line. Yes, it is disconcerting that Jay Cutler can't stay healthy, but the Bears also have the advantage in the backup QB department. So all things remaining the same, the Bears are better than the Packers.
For the Lions, I wasn't impressed by the Jim Caldwell hire. The only success he's had as a head coach came when Peyton Manning was his quarterback. He got Joe Flacco to play out of his mind in the 2012 postseason, but it didn't carry over to 2013. And you think he's going to be able to fix Matthew Stafford's numerous flaws? Stafford's talented, but he's shown zero ability to self-evaluate himself, or desire for that matter.
And that leaves the Vikings, who will play their home games in the elements for the first time since 1981 (and that one Monday Night game in 2010). Is this team really set up to play outside? Probably not. They weren't that well prepared to play in a dome in 2013.
NFC SOUTH
1. New Orleans Saints*
2. Atlanta Falcons*
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Carolina Panthers
I'm not a believer in the Panthers. Yes, Cam Newton is very good, but is there anyone else on that offense that makes you go "Oh man, I hope my team doesn't have to face him!"? Steve Smith will be 35 in 2014 and his stats have dipped each year since his last Pro Bowl selection in 2011. Greg Olsen is a good tight end, but there's no one else I'm particularly concerned with. And the running game is average at best. Plus, Cam Newton got sacked 43 times in 2013 (tied for fifth most in the league). The defense will still be good, but man does that offense give me pause.
Another thing working against the Panthers is that I think all three of their division rivals either will get better or are already good and will remain such. The Saints' defense went from being one of the worst in history in 2012 to one of the best in the NFL in 2013 under Rob Ryan. The offense will always be one of the elite units in the game so long as Drew Brees and Sean Payton are at the helm. They'll likely win the NFC South.
The Falcons and Buccaneers will improve on their respective 4-12 seasons. The Falcons offensive and defensive lines were terrible, but what really sunk them in 2013 were the injuries to Roddy White and Julio Jones. Even with both receivers limited by their own physical shortcomings, Matt Ryan still had a pretty damn good year considering he got sacked one-million times, his team had no run game to speak of (thanks in part to the aforementioned horrible offensive line) and his only viable targets for most of the year were Tony Gonzalez and some guy named Harry. Assuming White and Jones are healthy for most of next season, the Falcons should return to prominence even with the issues on both sides of their lines.
And that leaves the Bucs. I thought the hiring of Lovie Smith as their head coach was brilliant. If anyone can get the Bucs' defense to play to their potential, it's Smith. I think they have a shot to be the Panthers of 2014, where their offense is okay but their defense carries the team to improbable win after improbable win.
NFC WEST
1. Seattle Seahawks*
2. Arizona Cardinals*
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. St. Louis Rams
This Seattle team is stacked and capable of contending for years. The 49ers offense is remarkably similar to the Seahawks' with some key differences- Frank Gore is past 30 and Colin Kaepernick, while good, isn't as polished a passer as Russell Wilson. The 49ers also lost guard Mike Iupati and linebacker Navarro Bowman to serious injuries in the NFC Championship Game. It's a long offseason, but that's still a lot to overcome, especially with the Cardinals playing so well last year.
The Cards' offensive line is still problematic, but if it can be managed like it was in 2013, then they'll make the playoffs on the strength of their defense and receivers. The Rams will likely be better relative to the rest of the league, but they're a victim of their own division. If they make the playoffs this year or finish higher than fourth, it'll be a major surprise.
***
And now, here are my picks for the last three playoff games.
AFC: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
NFC: New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks
Not much different from this year. Whoever the home team is in a Patriots-Broncos game will win. In this case, it's the Broncos. And I don't think I have to elaborate on Seattle's home-field advantage. So yeah, I'm predicting just the second Super Bowl rematch in history.
Super Bowl XLIX: Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
A rematch would favor the Seahawks. It'll be interesting if this all goes through. The likelihood of that happening is small, but the way the conferences play out in my scenario in the regular season and playoffs, that seems to be the most likely outcome. We'll see if anything changes in a month before free agency officially starts.
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