Andy Dalton had a terrible game. This is true. However, why was Andy Dalton throwing 51 passes in a game? Aside from a couple articles on SB Nation, no one else seemed to be calling attention to this. Here's a fun fact- Since Andy Dalton took over the starting quarterback job at the start of the 2011 season, the Bengals are 3-10 in games where he throws 40 or more passes in a game and they're 0-3 in games where he throws 50 or more passes. Why is it that Andy Dalton is throwing so damn much when it's pretty clear that he doesn't exactly have a cannon for an arm? Obviously Dalton still deserves some criticism for decisions he's made, but to me, offensive coordinator Jay Gruden is the most culpable as far as the offensive deficiencies are concerned.
Isn't the point of being a good coach to design a system and call plays that both accentuate your players' strengths and hide their weaknesses? Gruden calls plays like his quarterback is Jay Cutler. Now if Jay Cutler were the quarterback of the Bengals, maybe this kind of play-calling would work more often than not. But Andy Dalton is the Bengals' quarterback. He's improved gradually since his first season. He's a good quarterback. I'm not sure he can be much more than good, but he IS good, and that's a step up from most other starting quarterbacks in the NFL.
The Bengals have a great receiver in A.J. Green, some nice compliments in Mohamed Sanu, Andrew Hawkins and Marvin Jones, and a nice one-two punch at tight end with Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert. I can understand Gruden wanting to get all those names involved, but at the same time, your good-but-flawed quarterback can't handle 40+ pass attempts in a game, with few exceptions. Dalton is the kind of quarterback that needs a strong running game to be successful.
I did some research comparing Dalton against some of his contemporaries. I used Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson as examples. All of those quarterbacks were drafted in either 2011 or 2012, and with the exception of Kaepernick, all of them, Dalton included, have started every possible game of their career. All of these teams have also been extremely successful for the most part. I compared their passing numbers in team wins to team losses as well as the numbers of the running game. For the running game, I excluded quarterback rushing attempts. While the game has evolved to the point where called quarterback runs are becoming more common, many quarterback runs still start out as potential passing plays and running plays by the QB are born out of broken plays. I want to see how many rushing attempts that are called specifically for a running back to get the ball. That to me is more indicative to just how balanced these five offenses are.
*Includes playoff games.
| Team | Quarterback | GW | GL | Pass Attempts Average/Win | Pass Attempts Average/Loss | Attempted Team Run Average/Win | Attempted Team Run Average/Loss | Winning Pass/Run Differential | Losing Pass/Run Differential | 40+ Pass Attempts in a Win | 40+ Pass Attempts in a Loss | Most Pass Attempts in a Win | Most Pass Attempts in a Loss |
| Carolina Panthers | Cam Newton | 25 | 23 | 27.4 | 34.3 | 24.4 | 17.8 | 3.0 | 16.5 | 0 | 3 | 38 | 46 (2) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | Andy Dalton | 30 | 21 | 31.1 | 39.0 | 27.6 | 20.6 | 3.5 | 18.4 | 3 | 12 | 45 | 53 |
| Indianapolis Colts | Andrew Luck | 23 | 11 | 35.9 | 42.8 | 24.7 | 17.5 | 11.2 | 25.3 | 5 | 8 | 55 | 54 |
| San Francisco 49ers | Colin Kaepernick | 20 | 7 | 25.7 | 29.1 | 27.2 | 18.1 | -1.5 | 11.0 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 36 |
| Seattle Seahawks | Russell Wilson | 25 | 9 | 24.0 | 29.2 | 28.2 | 22.2 | -4.2 | 7.0 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 36 |
With the pass/run differential, I went PA-RA. So when there are negative numbers in there, it means that the team averages MORE runs than passes. I find it pretty illuminating that two of the most exciting, great young quarterbacks in Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson not only have NOT thrown 40 or more passes in game in their short careers, but their teams both rely heavily on the run (keep in mind, these numbers exclude Kaepernick and Wilson's rushing attempts). And both the 49ers and Seahawks are two of the most successful teams in the NFL. How is no one else noticing this.
To me, Kaepernick and Wilson both remind me of Tom Brady when he first came into the NFL's consciousness. 2001-2005 Brady was on an extremely talented team with a great defense and an offense with good receivers and a good running game. I'm not saying that Brady's success in those years was solely due to the defense and running game, but if you look at his numbers, they're definitely good, but that's about it. It wasn't until 2006 or 2007 that Tom Brady became TOM BRADY. And that certainly had a lot to do with the receivers getting much better with the acquisition of Randy Moss and Wes Welker, but I also think that it's significant that Brady was going into his seventh or eighth seasons. He knew the pro game inside and out at that point, he was fully aware of what he did well and what he didn't, and that's when he went into Matrix mode and became one of the best quarterbacks in history.
Kaepernick and Wilson are both in similar situations (frighteningly similar). They are both a major factor in their respective offenses, but they aren't the focal point, or at best, they are equal partners to their running games. And again, both of these teams are extremely successful.
The Colts are the one weird team I looked at where there is SUCH a disparity between the run game and the passing game for a successful team. Although I think it's pretty safe to say that Andrew Luck is a once-in-25-years type of player. He's very much the exception as far as easing young quarterbacks in with a strong defense and good running game are concerned. He's the main reason the Colts have been good these last two seasons and that's crazy to type that out and not feel like it's hyperbole.
Cam Newton is an interesting case. Like Kaepernick and Wilson, he has never thrown 40 passes in a win, but the Panthers have the third greatest disparity between passing plays and called run plays with a 16.5 gap in losses.
That leaves the Bengals and Andy Dalton. The Bengals have their most success when Dalton throws slightly more than 30 passes and there are slightly less than 28 runs called. In other words, when the offense is balanced, they tend to win. When the offense deviates from that formula and favors the pass, the Bengals almost always lose. The Bengals have the second greatest disparity between the running game and passing game in losses with 18.4 passes being called than runs. The Colts are first with 25.3 in losses and 11.2 in wins. But again, the only thing Andrew Luck and Andy Dalton have in common is that they're quarterbacks and their names are Andrew.
So what does this mean? Jay Gruden really likes to call pass plays, much to the offense's detriment. He doesn't seem to see Andy Dalton's deficiencies, but if he does, he has a funny way of showing it. I think the Bengals can be successful with Andy Dalton. They have been in the last three seasons. But if they're to win in the playoffs, they need to be a more balanced offense. Consistently, not just every now and again.
Leaving the Colts and Bengals out of the equation, the 49ers and Seahawks both favor the run to the pass in wins. So do the Panthers. Except for the Panthers, the run/pass differential isn't extreme. That's a sign of good coaching. To be able to keep an offense balanced, no matter what's going on, to make an opposing defense more honest. That's something the Bengals don't do with consistency.
According to Mark Maske of the Washington Post, Jay Gruden is the leading candidate for the Washington Redskins' head coaching job. Maybe that's what the Bengals will ultimately need- for their current offensive coordinator to become their former offensive coordinator.
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