The Minnesota Vikings are one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this year. As of this writing, they're 2-7 on the year and are all but guaranteed to finish the year in the NFC North's basement. How much of a difference a year makes; they eked out a playoff spot last season with a 10-6 record. They got those ten wins in no large part thanks to Adrian Peterson having one of the single best seasons a running back has ever had in the history of the game.
These are Peterson's numbers for the 2012 season: in 16 games he ran 348 times for 2,097 yards (second most all time), with 12 touchdowns. He averaged 6.0 yards per attempt, 131.1 yards per game and 21.8 attempts per game. A phenomenal year if ever there was one. Going into this season, Peterson felt he could be even better, to put it lightly.
Trough the first nine games, Peterson's numbers look like this: 173 ATT, 786 YDS, 9 TD (leads the league), 4.5 Y/A, 87.3 Y/G, 19.2 A/G. He's not exactly on pace for 2,500 yards. He's also nearly 200 yards behind his numbers from last year after the same number of games. This is actually pretty common for running backs that rushed for over 2,000 yards; the next year tends to be a down one in comparison to their greatest triumphs. I profiled every 2,000 yard rusher back in this article, but let's expand on the analysis. Here are all of their total stats for those years:
O.J. Simpson*, 1973, Buffalo Bills, 332 ATT, 2,003 YDS, 12 TD, 6.0 Y/A, 143.1 Y/G, 23.7 A/G
Eric Dickerson, 1984, Los Angeles Rams, 379 ATT, 2,105 YDS, 14 TD, 5.6 Y/A, 131.6 Y/G, 23.7 A/G
Barry Sanders, 1997, Detroit Lions, 335 ATT, 2,053 YDS, 11 TD, 6.1 Y/A, 128.3 Y/G, 20.9 A/G
Terrell Davis, 1998, Denver Broncos, 392 ATT, 2,008 YDS, 21 TD, 5.1 Y/A, 125.5 Y/G, 24.5 A/G
Jamal Lewis, 2003, Baltimore Ravens, 387 ATT, 2,066 YDS, 14 TD, 5.3 Y/A, 129.1 Y/G, 24.2 A/G
Chris Johnson, 2009, Tennessee Titans, 358 ATT, 2,006 YDS, 14 TD, 5.6 Y/A, 125.4 Y/G, 22.4 A/G
Adrian Peterson, 2012, Minnesota Vikings, 348 ATT, 2,097 YDS, 12 TD, 6.0 Y/A, 131.1 Y/G, 21.8 A/G
*O.J.'s the only one on the list to accomplish these feats in a 14 game schedule. Like the others, he played every game that year.
Now here are their stats for their followup seasons:
O.J. Simpson*, 1974, Buffalo Bills, 270 ATT, 1,125 YDS, 3 TD, 4.2 Y/A, 80.4 Y/G, 19.3 A/G
Eric Dickerson*, 1985, Los Angeles Rams, 292 ATT, 1,234 YDS, 12 TD, 4.2 Y/A, 88.1 Y/G, 20.9 A/G
Barry Sanders, 1998, Detroit Lions, 343 ATT, 1491 YDS, 4 TD, 4.3 Y/A, 93.2 Y/G, 21.4 A/G
Terrell Davis**, 1999, Denver Broncos, 67 ATT, 211 YDS, 2 TD, 3.1 Y/A, 52.8 Y/G, 16.8 A/G
Jamal Lewis^, 2004, Baltimore Ravens, 235 ATT, 1,006 YDS, 7 TD, 4.3 Y/A, 83.8 Y/G, 19.6 A/G
Chris Johnson, 2010, Tennessee Titans, 316 ATT, 1,364 YDS, 11 TD, 4.3 Y/A, 85.3 Y/G, 19.8 A/G
Adrian Peterson^^, 2013, Minnesota Vikings, 173 ATT, 786 YDS, 9 TD, 4.5 Y/A, 87.3 Y/G, 19.2 A/G
*Played in 14 games.
**Played in 4 games.
^Played in 12 games.
^^Season in progress, 9 games completed.
As you can see, all of their numbers were down, in some cases significantly. But that doesn't mean that they necessarily had bad years. In fact, with the exception of Terrell Davis, who destroyed his knee four games into his 1999 season and was never the same after that, they all had what can be classified as good seasons at the very least. Peterson is no different. In fact, he's actually on pace to have one of the best followup seasons for a 2,000 yard rusher ever.
Let's assume that Peterson continues to average 4.5 Y/A, 87.3 Y/G and 19.2 A/G through the last seven games of the season. He would finish the year with 1,397 yards on 307 attempts. He's also averaging a touchdown a game at this point, but for the sake of sanity, I'll say he'll run in another four. Let's bring back the followup stats and see how a projected season like that would shake out in comparison with the others.
O.J. Simpson, 1974, Buffalo Bills, 270 ATT, 1,125 YDS, 3 TD, 4.2 Y/A, 80.4 Y/G, 19.3 A/G
Eric Dickerson, 1985, Los Angeles Rams, 292 ATT, 1,234 YDS, 12 TD, 4.2 Y/A, 88.1 Y/G, 20.9 A/G
Barry Sanders, 1998, Detroit Lions, 343 ATT, 1491 YDS, 4 TD, 4.3 Y/A, 93.2 Y/G, 21.4 A/G
Terrell Davis, 1999, Denver Broncos, 67 ATT, 211 YDS, 2 TD, 3.1 Y/A, 52.8 Y/G, 16.8 A/G
Jamal Lewis, 2004, Baltimore Ravens, 235 ATT, 1,006 YDS, 7 TD, 4.3 Y/A, 83.8 Y/G, 19.6 A/G
Chris Johnson, 2010, Tennessee Titans, 316 ATT, 1,364 YDS, 11 TD, 4.3 Y/A, 85.3 Y/G, 19.8 A/G
Adrian Peterson, 2013, Minnesota Vikings, 307 ATT, 1,397 YDS, 13 TD, 4.6 Y/A, 87.3 Y/G, 19.2 A/G
As you can see, Peterson's numbers look great. If these numbers shake out, he'd finish with the best Y/A average for a 2,000 yard followup season. He'd also have the second most rushing yards and the most touchdowns.
Why am I going through this rigamarole in the first place? I guess just because I'm fascinated by just how good Adrian Peterson is. I mean, he could go down as one of the best running backs ever when it's all said and done. He's already well on his way as far as forcing himself into the conversation with his play. Hell, he only needs 365 more yards before he reaches 10,000 for his career. That all but guarantees that unless something goes terribly, horribly wrong, he's going to be in the hall of fame in about 15 or so years.
So don't assume Adrian Peterson is having a bad year. He's on a bad team, yes, but he's having a great season nonetheless. He compares quite favorably to some of the most impressive running backs in the game's history. So no, he's not going to reach 2,000 yards this year. But don't think that failing to reach 2,000 means that he's having a disappointing season.
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