With the regular season over, it's time I dig out my 2013 predictions out of the mothballs and see how dead on/off the mark I was.
Arizona Cardinals
2012 Finish: 5-11, 4th NFC West, missed playoffs
My 2013 Prediction: 7-9, 4th NFC West, miss playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 10-6, 3rd NFC West, missed playoffs
+3
Detailed Prediction: The Cardinals would improve over their disastrous 2012 season, but not enough to secure a winning record. Carson Palmer would be a candidate for Comeback Player of the Year.
What Happened: Palmer was decent, which was an improvement over the horrendous quarterback play of the past couple seasons. The defense was one of the best of the league and helped the Cards to an 8-2 record against non-divisional opponents.
Atlanta Falcons
2012 Finish: 13-3, 1st NFC South, 1st seed in playoffs, lost NFC Championship Game
My 2013 Prediction: 12-4, 1st NFC South, make playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 4-12, 3rd NFC South, missed playoffs
-8
Detailed Prediction: The Falcons would remain an NFC powerhouse on their way to another postseason trip.
What Happened: Every year a team gets screwed over by injuries. This year it was the Falcons. Roddy White was hobbled for most of the year and Julio Jones only played in five games before his season ended due to a foot injury. But even if they were healthy all year, the dreadful play on both the offensive and defensive lines likely would have sunk the team anyway.
Baltimore Ravens
2012 Finish: 10-6, 1st AFC North, 4th seed in playoffs, won Super Bowl XLVII
My 2013 Prediction: 11-5, 1st AFC North, make playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 8-8, 3rd AFC North, missed playoffs
-3
Detailed Prediction: The Ravens ride the momentum of their Super Bowl win to a more dominant regular season performance than their world championship season.
What Happened: Another team that was hurt by a poor offensive line. Joe Flacco was down-right horrible this year, completing less than 60 percent of his passes for the third year in a row and throwing a career high 22 interceptions (hindsight being everything, they probably shouldn't have traded away Anquan Boldin). The run game also couldn't get anything going, again, thanks in part to the bad O-line.
Buffalo Bills
2012 Finish: 6-10, 4th AFC East, missed playoffs
My 2013 Prediction: 3-13, 4th AFC East, miss playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 6-10, 4th AFC East, missed playoffs
+3
Detailed Prediction: A rookie quarterback plus a disappointing defense would sink the Bills to one of the worst records in the league.
What Happened: The defense played well enough to make the team mediocre. The Bills are still treading the six-to-seven win river.
Carolina Panthers
2012 Finish: 7-9, 2nd NFC South, missed playoffs
My 2013 Prediction: 5-11, 4th NFC South, miss playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 12-4, 1st NFC South, made playoffs
+7
Detailed Prediction: The Panthers front seven would be great, but the offense would sink them to the bottom of the NFC.
What Happened: The offense played better than expected, the defense played to expectations and the Panthers won the whole damn division.
Chicago Bears
2012 Finish: 10-6, 3rd NFC North, missed playoffs
My 2013 Prediction: 10-6, 2nd NFC North, miss playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 8-8, 2nd NFC North, missed playoffs
-2
Detailed Prediction: Marc Trestman would make the offense better, but the Bears would barely miss the playoffs for the second year in a row.
What Happened: The offense indeed got better, but the defense nosedived and the Bears missed the playoffs by half a game.
Cincinnati Bengals
2012 Finish: 10-6, 2nd AFC North, 6th seed in playoffs, lost in the wild card round
My 2013 Prediction: 10-6, 2nd AFC North, make playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 11-5, 1st AFC North, made playoffs
+1
Detailed Prediction: The Bengals would once again be one of the better teams in the AFC while still being the little brother to the Ravens in the division.
What Happened: Thanks in part to the Ravens taking a dip, the Bengals won the AFC North, helped by posting a perfect 8-0 home record.
Cleveland Browns
2012 Finish: 5-11, 4th AFC North, missed playoffs
My 2013 Prediction: 7-9, 3rd AFC North, miss playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 4-12, 4th AFC North, missed playoffs
-3
Detailed Prediction: Brandon Weeden would play better after a meh rookie season which would propel the Browns to their best record since 2007.
What Happened: Brandon Weeded did not play well and neither did any other Browns quarterback (except for Brian Hoyer for three games before he got hurt). The defense took a step back, contributing further to the Browns' misery.
Dallas Cowboys
2012 Finish: 8-8, 3rd NFC East, missed playoffs
My 2013 Prediction: 4-12, 4th NFC East, miss playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 8-8, 2nd NFC East, missed playoffs
+4
Detailed Prediction: After two straight seasons of being just good enough to lose the mediocre NFC East in the last week, the Cowboys would implode to a losing record.
What Happened: The Cowboys made it three in a row with a third straight loss in what amounted to the NFC East title game and were decisively mediocre with one of the worst defenses in the league.
Denver Broncos
2012 Finish: 13-3, 1st AFC West, 1st seed in playoffs, lost in divisional round
My 2013 Prediction: 12-4, 1st AFC West, make playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 13-3, 1st AFC West, made playoffs
+1
Detailed Prediction: The Broncos would still win the AFC West comfortably, but their record would dip a bit thanks to the six game suspension of Von Miller to start the season.
What Happened: The Broncos cruised all year while Peyton Manning had the best season of his career (think about that) on his way to what will likely result in his record fifth MVP.
Detroit Lions
2012 Finish: 4-12, 4th NFC North, missed playoffs
My 2013 Prediction: 5-11, 4th NFC North, miss playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 7-9, 3rd NFC North, missed playoffs
+2
Detailed Prediction: The Lions would once again underachieve due to their undisciplined, mistake-prone play.
What Happened: The Lions were indeed undisciplined and mistake-prone but had the NFC North in the bag ten weeks into the season. Then they pissed the division title and a playoff spot away with their aforementioned undisciplined, mistake-prone play. Shockingly, Jim Schwartz was fired after the season.
Green Bay Packers
2012 Finish: 11-5, 1st NFC North, 3rd seed in playoffs, lost in divisional round
My 2013 Prediction: 10-6, 3rd NFC North, miss playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 8-7-1, 1st NFC North, made playoffs
-1.5
Detailed Prediction: The Packers have a phenomenal offense, but their defense would hold them back and cancel their season out with the Bears.
What Happened: Aaron Rodgers got hurt which exposed just how horrible the Packers' defense is, but still won the division thanks to the rest of the NFC North being pretty lame.
Houston Texans
2012 Finish: 12-4, 1st AFC South, 3rd seed in playoffs, lost in divisional round
My 2013 Prediction: 11-5, 1st AFC South, make playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 2-14, 4th AFC South, missed playoffs
-9
Detailed Prediction: The Texans would win the division but not do too much else.
What Happened: The Texans exploded and lost a team-worst 14 straight games. Didn't see that coming.
Indianapolis Colts
2012 Finish: 11-5, 2nd AFC South, 5th seed in playoffs, lost in wild card round
My 2013 Prediction: 9-7, 2nd AFC South, miss playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 11-5, 1st AFC South, made playoffs
+2
Detailed Prediction: The Colts would come back down to Earth after their Cinderella 2012.
What Happened: The Colts were the best team in the AFC South, which didn't mean much, and the offense wasn't anything special after Reggie Wayne got hurt.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2012 Finish: 2-14, 4th AFC South, missed playoffs
My 2013 Prediction: 3-13, 3rd AFC South, miss playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 4-12, 3rd AFC South, missed playoffs
+1
Detailed Prediction: The Jaguars would improve from last year by being atrocious instead of abysmal.
What Happened: After going 0-8 to start the season, the Jaguars were the Fightin' Jags for the last half of the year and only lost two games by double digits. That may not sound like much, but even the smallest victory for this team is like the equivalent of the battle of Saratoga.
Kansas City Chiefs
2012 Finish: 2-14, 4th AFC West, missed playoffs
My 2013 Prediction: 9-7, 2nd AFC West, make playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 11-5, 2nd AFC West, made playoffs
+2
Detailed Prediction: The hiring of Andy Reid would propel the talented Chiefs from a 2-14 record the previous season to an unlikely playoff spot.
What Happened: The Chiefs were an even more successful version of what I predicted in September.
Miami Dolphins
2012 Finish: 7-9, 2nd AFC East, missed playoffs
My 2013 Prediction: 7-9, 2nd AFC East, miss playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 8-8, 3rd AFC East, missed playoffs
+1
Detailed Prediction: The Dolphins were mediocre in the previous four seasons and nothing suggested that they'd be much better this year.
What Happened: Not much. Ryan Tannehill was good. I guess. The offensive line was God-awful. Man this team was boring.
Minnesota Vikings
2012 Finish: 10-6, 2nd NFC North, 6th seed in playoffs, lost in wild card round
My 2013 Prediction: 11-5, 1st NFC North, make playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 5-10-1, 4th NFC North, missed playoffs
-5.5
Detailed Prediction: The Vikings would win the NFC North thanks to the Bears and Packers canceling each other out.
What Happened: The good news is the NFC North wasn't good this year. The bad news is that the Vikings were the worst team in the division. They became the latest team to have a lost season thanks to ineffective quarterback play.
New England Patriots
2012 Finish: 12-4, 1st AFC East, 2nd seed in playoffs, lost in AFC Championship Game
My 2013 Prediction: 11-5, 1st AFC East, make playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 12-4, 1st AFC East, made playoffs
+1
Detailed Prediction: Even with the loss of just about every viable offensive weapon from the 2012 team, the Patriots would still win the AFC East easily due to the division's and the conference's mediocrity.
What Happened: Nailed it.
New Orleans Saints
2012 Finish: 7-9, 3rd NFC South, missed playoffs
My 2013 Prediction: 9-7, 2nd NFC South, miss playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 11-5, 2nd NFC South, made playoffs
+2
Detailed Prediction: Sean Payton's return also reinforces the Saints' dominance, but is held back by their poor defense.
What Happened: The Saints' defense went from statistically the worst unit of all time in 2012 to one of the best defenses in the league in 2013 (they were ranked 4th in total defense and points allowed). Drew Brees was phenomenal as always and threw for over 5,000 yards for the fourth time in six seasons. The fact that that feat was not celebrated, but expected says a hell of a lot about Drew Brees and the NFL as a whole.
New York Giants
2012 Finish: 9-7, 2nd NFC East, missed playoffs
My 2013 Prediction: 10-6, 2nd NFC East, miss playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 7-9, 3rd NFC East, missed playoffs
-3
Detailed Prediction: The Giants take advantage of a potentially up-for-grabs NFC East by securing a playoff spot.
What Happened: The Giants also had a bad offensive line and Eli Manning played his typical brand of scatter-shot game in by far the worst season of his career. The offense in general is what sunk the G-Men most of all with the defense playing decently.
New York Jets
2012 Finish: 6-10, 3rd AFC East, missed playoffs
My 2013 Prediction: 4-12, 3rd AFC East, miss playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 8-8, 2nd AFC East, missed playoffs
+4
Detailed Prediction: The Jets bottom out thanks to an anemic offense. Another strong defensive outing won't be enough to save Rex Ryan's job.
What Happened: The defense was indeed strong and the offense was indeed anemic, but the Jets still won four more games than I thought they would AND saved Rex Ryan's job. So good for you, Gang Green.
Oakland Raiders
2012 Finish: 4-12, 3rd AFC West, missed playoffs
My 2013 Prediction: 3-13, 4th AFC West, miss playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 4-12, 4th AFC West, missed playoffs
+1
Detailed Prediction: Year two of the Raiders' rebuilding/razing period results in another high draft pick for the silver and black.
What Happened: Yep.
Philadelphia Eagles
2012 Finish: 4-12, 4th NFC East, missed playoffs
My 2013 Prediction: 7-9, 3rd NFC East, miss playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 10-6, 1st NFC East, made playoffs
+3
Detailed Prediction: Chip Kelly makes the Eagles interesting and occasionally brilliant, but this is very much a rebuilding project.
What Happened: The Eagles defied expectations and Chip Kelly's offense was as transcendent as promised. A strong year from Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy plus an improved defense catapulted the Eagles to the top of the division.
Pittsburgh Steelers
2012 Finish: 8-8, 3rd AFC North, missed playoffs
My 2013 Prediction: 6-10, 4th AFC North, miss playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 8-8, 2nd AFC North, missed playoffs
+2
Detailed Prediction: The painting of Dorian Gray in the Steelers' attic continues to get younger as the team struggles on defense and gripes with each other on offense.
What Happened: Ben Roethlisberger played out of his mind and almost single-handedly made it so the Steelers didn't finish with a losing record.
San Diego Chargers
2012 Finish: 7-9, 2nd AFC West, missed playoffs
My 2013 Prediction: 7-9, 3rd AFC West, miss playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 9-7, 3rd AFC West, made playoffs
+2
Detailed Prediction: Mike McCoy turns around Philip Rivers after two lackluster seasons, but it's not enough to fix a severely talent strapped Chargers team.
What Happened: The defense held serve and Philip Rivers had his best season in years, netting the Bolts a surprising playoff spot.
San Francisco 49ers
2012 Finish: 11-4-1, 1st NFC West, 2nd seed in playoffs, lost Super Bowl XLVII
My 2013 Prediction: 12-4, 2nd NFC West, make playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 12-4, 2nd NFC West, made playoffs
0
Detailed Prediction: The defending NFC champions play like they should to secure their third straight double digit win season.
What Happened: The 49ers made me look smarter than I really am.
Seattle Seahawks
2012 Finish: 11-5, 2nd NFC West, 5th seed in playoffs, lost in divisional round
My 2013 Prediction: 13-3, 1st NFC West, make playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 13-3, 1st NFC West, made playoffs
0
Detailed Prediction: The Seahawks build off of the momentum from last season and run roughshod over everyone in their path.
What Happened: I've got the NFC West pegged it seems.
St. Louis Rams
2012 Finish: 7-8-1, 3rd NFC West, missed playoffs
My 2013 Prediction: 8-8, 3rd NFC West, miss playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 7-9, 4th NFC West, missed playoffs
-1
Detailed Prediction: The scrappy young Rams play hard all year and secure their first non-losing season since 2006.
What Happened: Well, they didn't win eight games but they were scrappy. Does that count?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2012 Finish: 7-9, 4th NFC South, missed playoffs
My 2013 Prediction: 7-9, 3rd NFC South, miss playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 4-12, 4th NFC South, missed playoffs
-3
Detailed Prediction: The Bucs once again underachieve on defense and the offense plays poorly as well, making this another meh season in north Florida.
What Happened: All of the above, just much worse than expected.
Tennessee Titans
2012 Finish: 6-10, 3rd AFC South, missed playoffs
My 2013 Prediction: 2-14, 4th AFC South, miss playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 7-9, 2nd AFC South, missed playoffs
+5
Detailed Prediction: The Titans surprisingly bottom out after treading water the last few seasons.
What Happened: Yeah, that didn't happen. I completely whiffed on that one.
Washington Redskins
2012 Finish: 10-6, 1st NFC East, 4th seed in playoffs, lost in wild card round
My 2013 Prediction: 11-5, 1st NFC East, make playoffs
Actual 2013 Results: 3-13, 4th NFC East, missed playoffs
-8
Detailed Prediction: Robert Griffin III does his best Adrian Peterson impression and Washington wins its second straight NFC East title.
What Happened: Speaking of whiffs. Robert Griffin III looked every bit like someone coming off of a horrible knee injury and the defense and special teams also play terribly, putting the cherry on top of the shit sundae that was the 2013 Washington Redskins' season. If there's one outcome I should've seen coming, this was the one.
***
And there you have it. My season predictions didn't go well this year. I did much better on the week to week prediction basis. Speaking of which, I went went 164-91 (.643) overall in my game picks. (As it turns out, the results I've been posting have been wrong for sometime: I had myself down as being 9-4 in week 5, but there were 14 games that week and I forgot to add another loss. So sorry I didn't catch that until now.) This was a lot of fun, but this doesn't make me a genius by any means. A lot of these correct picks came down to luck and no one really knows how a single game or an entire season will shake out before it happens. It's just hunches. Strong hunches, but hunches nonetheless.
With that said, my predictions will continue into the postseason. I'll have my wild card picks on Friday. Then I should have something on the Baseball Hall of Fame on Saturday or Sunday. I've got a lot of interesting stuff planned for the next few weeks, so look forward to that and enjoy the playoffs.
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