Saturday, January 18, 2014

NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME PREDICTIONS

Divisional Round Record: 4-0 (1.000)
Total Playoff Record: 5-3 (.625)

1. New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

Regular Season Record: Patriots Won

Thoughts: In the first meeting between these teams this season, Knowshon Moreno rushed for 224 yards and a touchdown on 37 attempts, accounting for 80 percent of the Broncos' rushing yards in that game. The Patriots combined to rush for 116 yards, but no rusher for the Pats individually accounted for more than 58 yards.

The difference in the game came with the quarterbacks- Peyton Manning was held to just 150 passing yards and threw the only interception of the game. Tom Brady meanwhile threw three touchdowns (one more than Manning) and no picks. However, Rob Gronkowski played in this game, catching seven passes. Gronk won't be available in the rematch as he went on injured reserve weeks ago.

Another factor that will make the game different is that the Broncos' Chris Harris is out for the rest of the postseason after tearing his ACL last week against the Chargers. Harris was one of the better players in the Broncos' secondary and Brady torched them in the regular season WITH Harris. Imagine what Brady can do without Harris in the lineup. The Patriots will also have LeGarrette Blount in the backfield this time around and Blount has been on fire in his last two games, rushing for a combined 355 yards and six touchdowns on 48 attempts in that span.

But the biggest thing to look for is that this will be the first time the Patriots have traveled to Denver to face the Broncos since Peyton Manning signed with them before the 2012 season. Historically, the Broncos have a pretty good track record against the Patriots when at home, going 4-2 (including the playoffs) since Brady took over the starting job in 2001. This is going to be a very close game, but weighing all those factors together, I think home field will play the biggest part in the game.

Pick: Broncos

2. San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Regular Season Record: Tied 1-1

Thoughts: The last time these teams met in Seattle, Frank Gore was a non-factor gaining just 16 yards and the 49ers turned the ball over five times. However, the 49ers were without Michael Crabtree in the first meeting. Come time for game two, Crabtree was in the lineup which freed up Anquan Boldin (who was held to just one reception for seven yards in the first game). Boldin and Crabtree combined to catch ten passes for 133 yards, but more importantly, Frank Gore went wild rushing for 110 yards on just 17 attempts, constantly putting the 49ers in field goal range. Crabtree will almost certainly play for the 49ers tomorrow, but like the first game, the rematch will be in Seattle. While the 49ers will no doubt be much harder to deal with than in the first game, I've lived and died by my never-bet-against-the-Seahawks-at-home mindset all year and I'd be foolish to change that now.

Pick: Seahawks

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