Monday, January 20, 2014

SUPER BOWL TALE OF THE TAPE

It's official: the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks will be the participants in Super Bowl XLVIII. Even though the game is thirteen days away, it's never too early to begin the hype job. So let's do a tale of the tape of both teams to see how they match up with each other for the big game.


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
GENERAL
DENVER BRONCOS
Pete Carroll (7/4)
Head Coach (Yrs Exp/Yrs w/ Tm)
John Fox (12/3)
NFC
Conference
AFC
West
Division
West
13-3
Record
13-3
1
Conference Rank
1
1976 (38)
First Season (Season #)
1960 (54)
2
# Super Bowl Appearance
7
0
Championships Won
2
N/A
Last Super Bowl Win (Season)
XXXIII (1998)
XL (2005)
Last Super Bowl Appearance (Season)
XXXIII (1998)


This is Carroll's first time coaching a team to the Super Bowl. Fox previously got the Carolina Panthers in the Super Bowl and they were an Adam Vinatieri missed field goal away from winning the game outright.

In another nice change of pace, this will be the first Super Bowl since the 2009 season that will pit the number one ranked teams in each conference against the other. So no matter what, the Super Bowl champion will be a legitimately great team and not a good one that got hot at the right time.

With that out of the way, let's put both the Broncos and the Seahawks under a microscope and examine how they each did in the game's three phases. First the offense.



SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
OFFENSE
DENVER BRONCOS
5,424 (17)
Total Offense (Rk)
7,317 (1)
3,236 (26)
Passing Yards For (Rk)
5,444 (1)
2,188 (4)
Rushing Yards For (Rk)
1,873 (15)
27 (10)
Passing Touchdowns For (Rk)
55 (1)
14 (T13)
Rushing Touchdowns For (Rk)
16 (T7)
417 (T8)
Points Scored (Rk)
606 (1)
19 (T4)
Turnovers Allowed (Rk)
26 (T17)
44 (T20)
Sacks Allowed (Rk)
20 (1)
307 (T20)
First Downs Gained (Rk)
435 (1)

Obviously the Broncos have the better offense after Peyton Manning's record-breaking year. They completely outshine the Seahawks in total offense, passing yards, passing touchdowns and points scored. Another underrated aspect to the Broncos' offense is that Peyton Manning was the most protected quarterback in the NFL this year, making the offense all the more dangerous.

The Seahawks outrank the Broncos in just two categories, but they're big ones- the Seahawks had one of the best run games in the NFL while the Broncos' run game was mostly decent, and the Seahawks took much better care of the football than the Broncos. How will the Broncos' defense hold up against stats like that? Let's look at the numbers.


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
DEFENSE
DENVER BRONCOS
4378 (1)
Total Defense (Rk)
5696 (19)
2752 (1)
Passing Yards Against (Rk)
4070 (27)
1626 (T7)
Rushing Yards Against (Rk)
1626 (T7)
16 (2)
Passing Touchdowns Against (Rk)
29 (T21)
4 (T1)
Rushing Touchdowns Against (Rk)
15 (T23)
231 (1)
Points Allowed (Rk)
399 (22)
39 (1)
Turnovers Caused (Rk)
26 (T16)
44 (T8)
Sacks (Rk)
41 (T13)
282 (T3)
First Downs Allowed (Rk)
339 (27)

Fun fact- this is the first time in Super Bowl history that a team ranked first in total offense and points scored will face a team ranked first in total defense and points allowed. The closest that scenario came to actually happening in the past was Super Bowl XXXVII; the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had the undisputed best defense in the NFL that year and the Oakland Raiders were ranked first in total offense, but the Raiders ranked second in points scored (for those of you wondering, the Kansas City Chiefs scored the most points in the NFL in 2002).

The Broncos had only two games this year against teams with pass defenses ranked in the top ten (and this includes the playoffs mind you)- the Philadelphia Eagles and (amazingly) the Houston Texans, and Peyton Manning didn't throw an interception in either game. The Seahawks, however, are leagues above every other defense in the NFL beyond just their standing in the rankings. They've caused the most turnovers in the league, allowed the fewest yards and points, and are in the top ten in every other significant defensive category. In other words, the Seahawks defense is freaking incredible.

By comparison, the Broncos' defense is pretty lame. Though I find it touchingly ironic that the Broncos and Seahawks allowed the exact same number of rushing yards this season. Aside from the rushing yards stat, the Broncos are completely outclassed by the Seahawks on the defensive side of the ball.

Which leaves us with one last phase- special teams.


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
SPECIAL TEAMS
DENVER BRONCOS
35 (T10)
Field Goals Attempted (Rk)
26 (T26)
33 (T5)
Field Goals Made (Rk)
25 (T18)
94.3 (2)
Field Goal Percentage (Rk)
96.2 (1)
76 (T11)
Punt Attempts (Rk)
66 (4)
27 (T5)
Field Goal Attempts Against (Rk)
26 (T3)
26 (T14)
Field Goals Allowed (Rk)
23 (T6)
96.3 (29)
Opp. Field Goal Percentage (Rk)
88.5 (20)
82 (T13)
Punts Againts (Rk)
89 (5)
579 (3)
Punt Return Yards For (Rk)
343 (12)
698 (27)
Kick Return Yards For (Rk)
974 (14)
82 (2)
Punt Return Yards Allowed (Rk)
274 (14)
1,056 (21)
Kick Return Yards Allowed (Rk)
936 (16)


Both teams don't punt a lot and feature deadly accurate kicking games. The 82 punt return yards allowed by the Seahawks ISN'T a misprint by the way. Outside of those categories, this area of the game is where both teams are definitely on more equal ground, with neither unit particularly standing out over the other.

***

Based on this analysis, I'm inclined to go with the Seahawks for my prediction. Though as always, I won't give my official prediction until the Saturday before the game in order to account for players who won't play or are coming back from injury.

Over the next two weeks, I'll have team profiles on the Broncos and Seahawks (they'll be structured in the same way as my profiles on the Bears, Ravens and Mets), predictions for the 2014 class of the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and obviously my Super Bowl pick. I'll likely have some other articles as well, but with the spring semester starting up for me on Thursday, I can't make any promises outside of the articles I mentioned. With all that said, here's hoping for another great Super Bowl.

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