BILL BELICHICK AND THE DARK SIDE OF THE FORCE

I made a point in yesterday's post that the Patriots are in decline. But I feel that these problems deserve to be more closely examined. And all of them are tied to the loss of talent, in one way or another, which is controlled directly by one Bill Belichick.

The happiest man in Massachusetts

Belichick has been the head coach and de facto general manager of the team since 2000. In that time, he drafted players like Richard Seymour, Matt Light, Deion Branch, and Vince Wilfork (and a certain Michigan quarterback in the sixth round of the 2000 draft), and picked up players in free agency or trades like Corey Dillon and Rodney Harrison. All of these transactions happened in his first five years at the helm and won the Patriots three Super Bowls in four years and made them a powerhouse in the NFL for the next decade. Truthfully, Belichick has a keen eye on talent and developing it for the future. And for many years, it seemed like every player he brought in to the organization turned into a Pro Bowler.

Recently however, his acquisitions have been hit or miss. For every Jerod Mayo, Rob Gronkowski and Chandler Jones he's picked up in the draft, there have been more instances of drafting guys like Ras-I Dowling, Patrick Chung, and Brandon Tate. His veteran picks have also been hit or miss. Andre Carter played a key role in getting the Patriots to their most recent Super Bowl. Wes Welker became Tom Brady's favorite target and made the Patriots' offense extremely dangerous over his six seasons with the team. But there were also recent failures like Albert Haynesworth, Chad Johnson and Brandon Lloyd.

In a lot of cases, dating back to his start with the team, Belichick's pickups carried with them a certain level of risk. Rodney Harrison had been suspended before during his stay with the Chargers, Corey Dillon also had drawn the attention of the league a few times, and Randy Moss was... himself. Rodney Harrison was a defensive leader for his entire stay with the team, and the other two were key contributors for a short time. So Belichick turned potential risks into strengths. He was lauded as a genius, someone who could turn anyone into a great player.

And that's where I feel the root of the problem lies: Belichick knows he has gotten a lot out of character risk players and players of questionable talent, ergo, he can do it again, over and over.

Belichick is infamous for releasing or trading away players that were productive in the past, but that he feels are at the end of their rope. Lawyer Milloy, Ty Law, Richard Seymour and Wes Welker are the big ones that come to mind. With each of those cases, Belichick felt that he could easily replace those players with ones in the draft or free agency, or with players already on the Patriots roster.

"Ty Law's getting older and he missed more than half the season? We won 14 games and the Super Bowl without him. Plus, we have Asante Samuel and just drafted Ellis Hobbs. In fact, I think so little of you, Ty, that you can go play for a division rival! And we're still going to win the AFC East!"

"Richard Seymour's in the same situation? He missed half the season when we won every game. And he didn't do shit in the postseason. Vince Wilfork can take your place Richard. Have fun in Oakland!"

"Wes Welker's bitching and moaning about being phased out? We have Tom Brady! Danny Amendola's just like you, Wes, and if he doesn't get hurt, it'll be like you never left!"

"Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen..."

To Belichick's credit, most of these moves have worked out, and he usually gets rid of players a year too early than a year too late (that's good). Plus, when he's taken risks in recent years, it's been largely on a low risk/high reward type. Take Albert Haynesworth and Chad Johnson. Both were free agents in 2011. Both had question marks attached to them (Haynesworth for his sloth-like play and surly demeanor, and Johnson for his declining play and for being more concerned about hearing his name in the news than for his aforementioned declining play). Both were signed for astoundingly low amounts. Low risk chances on high risk guys that could potentially really help on offense and defense. As it turned out, neither panned out; Haynesworth was released during the season, and Johnson got cut shortly after the Patriots lost Super Bowl XLVI. But the Patriots didn't get burned.

The Patriots have also done the low risk/high reward thing in the draft. Aaron Hernandez and Alfonzo Dennard are the most recent examples. Hernandez slipped to the fourth round of the 2010 draft due to attitude problems he had over the course of his career at Florida. He certainly had talent, but teams just weren't willing to give up a high draft pick on such a risk. Ditto for Dennard, who fell to the seventh round of the 2012 draft. Both had character concerns, but both were low picks signed to small deals. And it worked like gangbusters at first; Hernandez in particular was a great compliment to fellow tight end and 2010 pick Rob Gronkowski, giving extra umph to an already potent Patriot offense. Dennard didn't reach the same heights as Hernandez, but he played decently in his first year with the team.

Alfonzo Dennard has had two run ins the law in the last twelve months; he allegedly punched a police officer in Lincoln, Nebraska a day before the 2012 draft (it's never a good time to punch a police officer, but a day before the draft is really not good), and he was arrested a couple days ago on suspicion of DUI. Again, if the Patriots end up cutting him, it'll won't put a dent in them.

Hernandez was arrested a couple weeks ago as a murder suspect, and he's also being tied to two other killings in the recent past. These stem from his character concerns in college, don't they? Well, no. Hernandez was questioned in college about a shooting (along with other Florida players like the Pouncey twins), but other than that, the only character concerns he had were that he was a douchbag who also liked to smoke pot. First-degree murder is a big step up from "kind of a tool." So I don't fault Belichick for taking a chance on him. But Belichick also signed Hernandez to a lucrative long-term deal last year, which the Patriots have to eat now that they released him. While assuming that Hernandez would one day be accused of murder seems to be a bit much, his history of jagoffery was well known and well documented. To give millions of dollars over a long period of time to a guy with his history was a reckless thing to do and the Patriots are now paying (and trying not to pay) for it.

Both of these guys are just a microcosm of the risks the Patriots have taken. And let's be clear: Belichick is taking these risks for a reason besides the fact that loves to prove how smart he is. Belichick wants to win the Super Bowl. Now saying that a coach wants to win the Super Bowl is like saying that humans need air to breathe, or that Spider-Man 3 was a terrible movie. These are obvious facts. But unlike damn near every other coach in the NFL right now, Belichick has the leeway to take insane risks that may not pan out, and still come out unscathed. That's what happens when you win three Super Bowls, go to five in total, have only had one losing season in thirteen years on the job, rattled off twelve straight winning seasons, while going to the playoffs ten times and averaging 11.6 wins in your career in Foxborough. Belichick could coach this team until the day he dies, and he knows that.

Coach Belichick on the sidelines in 2028.

So what happens next? Robert Kraft can't be happy that two people on his payroll are either in jail, or may be back soon. Will he actually demand Belichick not take risks on guys with character concerns, regardless of where they're drafted or how miniscule their contracts are? Will he eventually take Belichick's front office power away from him while keeping him as head coach? Will he outright fire Belichick if this keeps up?

Here's what should be kept in mind: if Belichick loses power, he walks. If Belichick gets fired, he finds a job in five minutes, if that. 3/4 of team owners would likely fire their current head coach if it meant that Belichick would be the head honcho for their teams, and that's a conservative estimate. If I had to guess what happens, Kraft will privately meet with Belichick (if he hasn't already), they'll go over what's gone wrong over the last few years, and come up with a solution. No one's getting fired unless they get arrested.

And so Bill Belichick will go on in an attempt to win his fourth Super Bowl, and tie Chuck Noll on the all time Super Bowl wins list. Tom Brady is getting older and so is he. And every year, the Super Bowl gets further and further from his grasp. It's that fear of not winning it that motivates him. And that fear leads to anger, which leads to hate, which leads to the dark side, which leads to players getting in trouble with the law and three awful movies.

In fairness, I don't think I can blame Belichick for these.