Friday, July 19, 2013

MLB SECOND HALF START PREDICTIONS

The second half of the MLB season begins today (or the last 70 games, whichever comes first), and to commemorate the occasion, I'm going to throw my hat in the ring and predict the weekend series. So let's see how smart I may or may not be.

Note: all series are three game series.

New York Yankees (51-44, 4th AL East) at Boston Red Sox (58-39, 1st AL East)

3rd Series (1st in Boston)
Series Leader (BOS, 4-2)

Last Home Series Record: Boston (8-1)
Last Away Series Record: Yankees (4-3)
Last 10: BOS (5-5), NYY (5-5)

Projected Pitchers

7/19- Felix Doubront, BOS, 6-3, 3.91 ERA, 99.0 IP; Andy Pettitte, NYY, 7-6, 4.39 ERA, 98.1 IP
7/20- John Lackey, BOS, 7-6, 2.78 ERA, 100.1 IP; Hiroki Kuroda, NYY, 8-6, 2.65 ERA, 118.2 IP
7/21- Jon Lester, BOS, 8-6, 4.58 ERA, 125.2 IP; C.C. Sabathia, NYY, 9-8, 4.07 ERA, 137.0 IP

Prediction: BOS (2-1)

Atlanta Braves (54-41, 1st NL East) at Chicago White Sox (37-55, 5th AL Central)

Have Not Played Yet

Last Home Series Record: White Sox (3-7)
Last Away Series Record: Atlanta (3-3)
Last 10: CWS (3-7), ATL (5-5)

Projected Pitchers

7/19- John Danks, CWS, 2-6, 4.31 ERA, 62.2 IP; Tim Hudson, ATL, 6-7, 4.02 ERA, 116.1 IP
7/20- Jake Peavy, CWS, 6-4, 4.30 ERA, 67.0 IP; TBA, ATL
7/21- Jose Quintana, CWS, 4-2, 3.71 ERA, 114.0 IP; TBA, ATL

Prediction: ATL (2-1)

Pittsburgh Pirates (56-37, 2nd NL Central) at Cincinnati Reds (53-42, 3rd NL Central)

4th Series (2nd in Cincinnati)
Series Leader (PIT, 6-4)

Last Home Series Record: Cincinnati (4-2)
Last Away Series Record: Pittsburgh (8-4)
Last 10: CIN (4-6), PIT (4-6)

Projected Pitchers

7/19- Mike Leake, CIN, 8-4, 2.69 ERA, 117.0 IP; Francisco Liriano, PIT, 9-3, 2.00 ERA, 76.2 IP
7/20- Mat Latos, CIN, 8-3, 3.53 ERA, 120.0 IP; A.J. Burnett, PIT, 4-6, 3.06 ERA, 100.0 IP
7/21- Homer Bailey, CIN, 5-8, 3.82 ERA, 122.2 IP; Jeff Locke, PIT, 8-2, 2.15 ERA, 109.0 IP

Prediction: CIN (2-1)

Chicago Cubs (42-51, 4th NL Central) at Colorado Rockies (46-50, 3rd NL West)

2nd Series (1st in Denver, series finale)
Series Leader (CHC, 2-1)

Last Home Series Record: Colorado (3-4)
Last Away Series Record: Cubs (6-4)
Last 10: COL (4-6), CHC (6-4)

Projected Pitchers

7/19- Jorge De La Rosa, COL, 9-5, 3.21 ERA, 109.1 IP; Jeff Smardzija, CHC, 5-9, 4.06 ERA, 124.0 IP
7/20- TBA, COL; Carlos Villanueva, CHC, 2-5, 3.59 ERA, 80.1 IP
7/21- TBA, COL; Edwin Jackson, CHC, 6-10, 5.11 ERA, 100.1 IP

Prediction: CHC (2-1)

Seattle Mariners (43-52, 4th AL West) at Houston Astros (33-61, 5th AL West)

4th Series (2nd in Houston)
Series Leader (HOU, 5-4)

Last Home Series Record: Houston (2-7)
Last Away Series Record: Seattle (4-2)
Last 10: HOU (3-7), SEA (6-4)

Projected Pitchers

7/19- Bud Norris, HOU, 6-8, 3.63 ERA, 114.0 IP; Joe Saunders, SEA, 4.24 ERA, 114.2 IP
7/20- TBA, HOU; Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA, 8-4, 3.02 ERA, 131.1 IP
7/21- TBA, HOU; Felix Hernandez, SEA, 10-4, 2.53 ERA, 138.2 IP

Prediction: SEA (3-0)

Detroit Tigers (52-42, 1st AL Central) at Kansas City Royals (43-49, 3rd AL Central)

3rd Series (2nd in Kansas City)
Series Leader (KCR, 3-2)

Last Home Series Record: Kansas City (3-3)
Last Away Series Record: Detroit (7-4)
Last 10: KCR (3-7), DET (6-4)

Projected Pitchers

7/19- Ervin Santana, KCR, 5-6, 3.37 ERA, 123.0 IP; Anibal Sanchez, DET, 7-6, 2.93 ERA, 92.0 IP
7/20- James Shields, KCR, 4-6, 3.21 ERA, 134.2 IP; Justin Verlander, DET, 10-6, 3.50 ERA, 126.0 IP
7/21- Jeremy Guthrie, KCR, 8-7, 4.25 ERA, 120.2 IP; Doug Fister, DET, 7-5, 4.02 ERA, 121.0 IP

Prediction: DET (3-0)

Oakland Athletics (56-39, 1st AL West) at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (44-49, 3rd AL West)

3rd Series (2nd in Anaheim)
Series Leader (OAK, 5-1)

Last Home Series Record: Anaheim (4-2)
Last Away Series Record: Oakland (4-2)
Last 10: LAA (4-6), OAK (7-3)

Projected Pitchers

7/19- Jered Weaver, LAA, 3-5, 3.63 ERA, 67.0 IP; A.J. Griffin, OAK, 8-6, 3.68 ERA, 122.1 IP
7/20- C.J. Wilson, LAA, 9-6, 3.37 ERA, 120.1 IP; Dan Straily, OAK, 6-2, 4.28 ERA, 80.0 IP
7/21- Jerome Williams, LAA, 5-5, 4.60 ERA, 92.0 IP; Bartolo Colon, OAK, 12-3. 2.70 ERA, 126.2 IP

Prediction: OAK (2-1)

Miami Marlins (35-58, 5th NL East) at Milwaukee Brewers (38-56, 5th NL Central)

2nd Series (1st in Milwaukee, series finale)
Series Leader (MIL, 2-1)

Last Home Series Record: Milwaukee (3-3)
Last Away Series Record: Miami (2-4)
Last 10: MIL (4-6), MIA (4-6)

Projected Pitchers

7/19- Kyle Lohse, MIL, 5-7, 3.67 ERA, 115.1 IP; Jacob Turner, MIA, 3-1, 2.33 ERA, 54.0 IP
7/20- Yovani Gallardo, MIL, 7-8, 4.83 ERA, 113.2 IP; Nathan Eovaldi, MIA, 2-0, 2.93 ERA, 30.2 IP
7/21- TBA, MIL; Henderson Alvarez, MIA, 0-1, 4.58 ERA, 17.2 IP

Prediction: MIL (2-1)

Cleveland Indians (51-44, 2nd AL Central) at Minnesota Twins (39-53, 4th AL Central)

3rd Series (1st in Minneapolis)
Series Leader (CLE, 4-2)

Last Home Series Record: Minnesota (2-6)
Last Away Series Record: Cleveland (7-4)
Last 10: MIN (3-7), CLE (6-4)

Projected Pitchers

7/19- Mike Pelfrey, MIN, 4-7, 5.55 ERA, 82.2 IP; Scott Kazmir, CLE, 5-4, 4.60 ERA, 86.0 IP
7/20- Kevin Correia, MIN, 6-6, 4.23 ERA, 110.2 IP; Corey Kluber, CLE, 7-5, 3.88 ERA, 95.0 IP
7/21- Scott Diamond, MIN, 5-8, 5.32 ERA, 91.1 IP; Justin Masterson, CLE, 10-7, 3.72 ERA, 135.1 IP

Prediction: CLE (2-1)

Philadelphia Phillies (48-48, 3rd NL East) at New York Mets (41-50, 4th NL East)

4th Series (2nd in New York City)
Series Leader (PHI, 6-3)

Last Home Series Record: Mets (3-4)
Last Away Series Record: Phillies (5-5)
Last 10: NYM (6-4), PHI (7-3)

Projected Pitchers

7/19- Jeremy Hefner, NYM, 4-6, 3.33 ERA, 108.0 IP; Kyle Kendrick, PHI, 8-6, 3.68 ERA, 124.2 IP
7/20- Zack Wheeler, NYM, 3-1, 3.54 ERA, 28.0 IP; Cole Hamels, PHI, 4-11, 4.05 ERA, 129.0 IP
7/21- Matt Harvey, NYM, 7-2, 2.35 ERA, 130.0 IP; Cliff Lee, PHI, 10-3, 2.86 ERA, 138.2 IP

Prediction: PHI (2-1)

Arizona Diamondbacks (50-45, 1st NL West) at San Francisco Giants (43-51, 4th NL West)

4th Series (2nd in San Francisco)
Series Leader (SF, 6-3)

Last Home Series Record: San Francisco (1-5)
Last Away Series Record: Arizona (3-7)
Last 10: SFG (4-6), ARI (6-4)

Projected Pitchers

7/19- Chad Gaudin, SFG, 3-1, 2.39 ERA, 64.0 IP; Ian Kennedy, ARI, 3-6, 5.42 IP; 108.0 IP
7/20- Matt Cain, SFG, 5-6, 5.06 ERA, 112.0 IP; Wade Miley, ARI, 6-7, 4.01 ERA, 116.2 IP
7/21- Madison Bumgarner, SFG, 10-5, 3.02 ERA, 125.0 IP; Randall Delgado, ARI, 1-3, 3.92 ERA, 39.0 IP

Prediction: ARI (2-1)

San Diego Padres (42-54, 5th NL West) at St. Louis Cardinals (57-36, 1st NL Central)

2nd Series (1st in St. Louis, series finale)
Series Leader (STL, 2-1)

Last Home Series Record: St. Louis (5-0)
Last Away Series Record: San Diego (1-9)
Last 10: STL (7-3), SDP (2-8)

Projected Pitchers

7/19- Jake Westbrook, STL, 5-4, 2.88 ERA, 75.0 IP; Jason Marquis, SDP, 9-4, 3.77 ERA, 112.1 IP
7/20- Lance Lynn, STL, 11-4, 4.00 ERA, 117.0 IP; Edinson Volquez, SDP, 6-8, 5.74 ERA, 109.2 IP
7/21- Adam Wainwright, STL, 12-5, 2.45 ERA, 146.2 IP; Eric Stults, SDP, 8-7, 3.40 ERA, 127.0 IP

Prediction: STL (3-0)

Baltimore Orioles (53-43, 3rd AL East) at Texas Rangers (54-41, 2nd AL West)

2nd Series (1st in Arlington, series finale)
Series Leader (Tied, 2-2)

Last Home Series Record: Texas (5-4)
Last Away Series Record: Baltimore (2-4)
Last 10: TEX (5-5), BAL (5-5)

Projected Pitchers

7/19- Derek Holland, TEX, 8-4, 3.08 ERA, 125.2 IP; Wei-Yin Chen, BAL, 4-3, 2.82 ERA, 54.1 IP
7/20- Martin Perez, TEX, 3-2, 3.00 ERA, 36.0 IP; Miguel Gonzalez, BAL, 7-3, 3.48 ERA, 101.0 IP
7/21- Ross Wolf, TEX, 1-2, 2.14 ERA, 33.2 IP; Chris Tillman, BAL, 11-3, 3.95 ERA, 111.2 IP

Prediction: TEX (2-1)

Tampa Bay Rays (55-41, 2nd AL East) at Toronto Blue Jays (45-49, 5th AL East)

4th Series (2nd in Tampa Bay)
Series Leader (Tied, 5-5)

Last Home Series Record: Toronto (3-4)
Last Away Series Record: Tampa Bay (6-5)
Last 10: TOR (4-6), TBR (9-1)

Projected Pitchers

7/19- Esmil Rogers, TOR, 3-4, 3.64 ERA, 71.2 IP; David Price, TBR, 3-5, 3.94 ERA, 80.0 IP
7/20- Mark Buehrle, TOR, 5-6, 4.89 ERA, 116.0 IP; Jeremy Hellickson, TBR, 8-3, 4.67 ERA, 117.2 IP
7/21- R.A. Dickey, TOR, 8-10, 4.69 ERA, 128.2 IP; Chris Archer, TBR, 4-3, 2.96 ERA, 51.2 IP

Prediction: TOR (2-1)

Los Angeles Dodgers (47-47, 2nd NL West) at Washington Nationals (48-47, 2nd NL East)

2nd Series (1st in Washington D.C., series finale)
Series Leader (LAD, 2-1)

Last Home Series Record: Washington (5-2)
Last Away Series Record: Los Angeles (7-2)
Last 10: WSH (5-5), LAD (7-3)

Projected Pitchers

7/19- Stephen Strasburg, WSH, 5-7, 2.99 ERA, 108.1 IP; Ricky Nolasco, LAD, 6-9, 3.76 ERA, 124.1 IP
7/20- Gio Gonzalez, WSH, 7-3, 3.03 ERA, 118.2 IP; Zack Greinke, LAD, 8-2, 3.49 ERA, 85.0 IP
7/21- Jordan Zimmerman, WSH, 12-4, 2.58 ERA, 132.1 IP; Clayton Kershaw, LAD, 8-6, 1.98 ERA, 145.1 IP

Prediction: LAD (2-1)

And that does it. I'm glad I'm not doing this very often.

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